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A clean sweep is on the table as the Dallas Mavericks look to book their ticket to the Finals on Tuesday night by closing out the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals at the American Airlines Center. Let's take a closer look at all of the possibilities for this matchup. The head injury to Dereck Lively II which he suffered in the second quarter of Game 3 is cause for concern, since his length and size are invaluable versus Minnesota's frontcourt, but it appears that he avoided a concussion which bodes well for his chances of returning to action sooner rather than later. The Timberwolves actually outscored the Mavericks 74-73 the rest of the way after Lively II exited, but not by enough to think any momentum has shifted in their favor moving forward. Daniel Gafford performed admirably in his stead, and head coach Jason Kidd isn't opposed to going smaller since Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert consistently gets beaten off the dribble and even on lobs around the rim. It's been a minute since Dallas last held a 3-0 series lead heading into a Game 4, but it covered the spread and won SU the last two occurrences in 2006 and 2011, respectively. The Mavericks are also riding a five-game winning streak SU dating back to the second round against the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder with just one failed cover during that span, and the last thing they'll want to do is inspire a Timberwolves squad which just overcame a 3-2 deficit to eliminate the reigning champions by sending the series back to Target Center for a Game 5. Trends are trends for a reason and should be followed accordingly, so take notice of the fact that the OVER has been nailed in each game this series by at the very least six points. Four of Dallas' last six home games this postseason have reached the OVER, as well. The 209.5 prop total is the highest of the series, but the end results of the first three matchups would still have easily surpassed that mark. To put the nail in the coffin, Conference Finals hosts' who won Game 3 are on a 7-3 SU & ATS run in Game 4. I've been on the Mavericks as an NBA Championship contender for a while now, and love Jason Kidd's squad to close out the series in Game 4.
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The moneyline set for this matchup implies Dallas has a 60.5% chance of walking away with the win. This season, Dallas has come away with a win 31 times in 41 chances when named as a favorite of at least -153 or better on the moneyline. When it has played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +130 or longer, Minnesota has a record of 4-8 (33.3%). The Timberwolves are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road. Dunkel's Pick: Minnesota (+1.5). |
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Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Yankees have a 55.2% chance to win. The Yankees have won 27, or 71.1%, of the 38 games they’ve played as favorites this season. This season New York has won 22 of its 33 games, or 66.7%, when favored by at least -123 on the moneyline. This season, San Diego has been victorious five times in 12 chances when named as an underdog of at least +104 or longer on the moneyline. The Yankees are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games on the road. The Padres are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games at home. Dunkel's Pick: NY Yankees (-126). |
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Boston is an MLB-worst 6-19 ATS as the home team this season. Boston is 6-21 ATS as a favorite this season. The Brewers have won the first two games of this series against the Red Sox in Boston by a combined score of 13-5. Milwaukee used an opener and piggyback starter in both games to great effect. It’s not quite clear if they plan to do the same again on Sunday. The only certainty is that Milwaukee lefty Jared Koenig will not be the opener if the Brewers do elect to use one for a third straight contest. I like the Brewers as run-line underdogs in this game. Milwaukee is 20-9 ATS as an underdog and 23-20 ATS when playing on no rest this season. What’s more, the Brewers are 12-10 ATS in non-league games and 25-22 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest this season. The Brewers money line of +120 does look appealing, but I’ll take Milwaukee +1.5 runs at -170 odds on Sunday. |
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Mets are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Francisco’s last 12 games. The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Mets’ last 12 games Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games Take San Francisco. The Giants are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall, have won seven out of their last 10 games against the Mets and are 6-2 in their last eight road games. On the other side, the Mets are winless in their last five games, are 2-10 over their last 12 games and are 1-6 in their last seven games played at Citi Field. Giants vs. Mets MLB Playoffs Prediction: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -122 |
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The total has gone OVER in 11 of Florida’s last 12 games when playing at home against NY Rangers. The total has gone OVER in 18 of Florida’s last 21 games against NY Rangers. NY Rangers are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games played on a Sunday. Take Florida. The Panthers are 13-4 in their last 17 games overall, are 9-2 in their last 11 home games and are 53-22 in their last 75 games when facing an opponent from the Eastern Conference. They’re also 21-9 in their last 30 games against an opponent from the Metropolitan Division, are 10-3 in their last 13 games played in May and are 32-11 in their last 43 games when listed as the favorite. Rangers vs. Panthers Game 3 Prediction: FLORIDA PANTHERS -162 |
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his Minnesota team might play better with their backs against the wall. The Timberwolves faced a 3-2 series deficit last round, then defeated the Denver Nuggets at home in Game 6 and then toppled them on the road in Game 7. Minnesota won 3 out of 4 games in Denver last round, and they may have to win 3 road games again to advance past the Western Conference Finals. I think they can do it. The Timberwolves are 30-27-2 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest and 27-20 ATS as the road team this season. What’s more, Minnesota is 13-10 ATS as a road underdog and 8-5 ATS in playoff games this season. The most relevant and important stat is this: the Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS on the road in these playoffs. I like Minnesota to improve that record with an outright win or something very close to it on Sunday. I’m backing the T’Wolves on the road in Game 3. |
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The Mavericks have a 59.8% chance to win this game based on the moneyline's implied probability. Dallas has gone 31-10 when it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -149 or shorter (winning 75.6%). This season, Minnesota has won four of its 12 games, or 33.3%, when it is the underdog by at least +126 on the moneyline. The Mavericks have covered the spread 26 times this season (26-15 ATS) when playing as at least 3-point favorites. The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Dallas. Dunkel's Pick: Dallas (-3). |
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J.BROWN UN 25.5 PTS -1.20 |
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The implied moneyline probablility in this matchup gives the Red Sox a 57.4% chance to win. This season, the Red Sox have won 13 out of the 22 games, or 59.1%, in which they’ve been favored. Boston has won nine of its 12 games, or 75%, when favored by at least -132 on the moneyline. The Brewers are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road. The Red Sox are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the National League Central Division. Dunkel's Pick: Boston (-136). |
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The moneyline set for this matchup implies Minnesota has a 66.4% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest. Minnesota has been the favorite in 61 games this season and has come away with the win 46 times (75.4%) in those contests. This year, Minnesota has won 34 of 41 games when listed as at least -198 or better on the moneyline. Dallas has not yet won a game when they entered play as a moneyline underdog with odds of +165 or longer in eight chances. The Mavericks are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games. Dunkel's Pick: Minnesota (-5.5). |
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The moneyline set for this matchup implies Boston has a 80.6% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest. Boston has won 63, or 79.7%, of the 79 contests in which it was the favorite this year. This year, Boston has won 29 of 32 games when listed as at least -415 or better on the moneyline. Indiana has not yet won a game when entering as a moneyline underdog with odds of +319 or longer in three chances. The Pacers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Boston. The Celtics are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games at home. Dunkel's Pick: Boston (-9). |
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The moneyline set for this matchup implies Minnesota has a 63.9% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest. Minnesota has come away with 46 wins in the 61 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season. This season, Minnesota has come away with a win 36 times in 45 chances when named as a favorite of at least -177 or better on the moneyline. Dallas has gone 2-9 in games it has played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +149 or longer (18.2%). The Mavericks are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Dunkel's Pick: Minnesota (-4.5). |
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The Dallas Mavericks are 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS away from home when coming off an ATS loss this season. |
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TAKE A BREAK: Teams that advance to the next round in the playoffs, coming off a series-clinching win over a No. 1 seed (Mavericks), are just 12-18 ATS in the first game of new series openers since 2000. This includes a 7-17 ATS record against foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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The moneyline set for this matchup implies Boston has a 81% chance of walking away with the win. This season, Boston has come away with a win 29 times in 32 chances when named as a favorite of at least -426 or shorter on the moneyline. Indiana has not yet won a game when entering as a moneyline underdog with odds of +329 or longer in three chances. The Pacers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Boston. The Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Tuesday when playing at home. Dunkel's Pick: Boston (-10). |
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The Cincinnati Reds are 3-14 in the month of May this season. |
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The last NHL Presidents Trophy winning team to make it to the Stanley Cup finals was Vancouver in 2010-11. |
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The moneyline set for this matchup implies Denver has a 67% chance of walking away with the win. Denver has been chosen as the favorite in 72 games this year and has walked away with the win 53 times (73.6%) in those games. This year, Denver has won 38 of 46 games when listed as at least -203 or better on the moneyline. Minnesota has gone 1-3 when it has played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +169 or longer (25%). The Timberwolves are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games when playing on the road against Denver. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Sunday. Dunkel's Pick: Denver (-5) |
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