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Quote Originally Posted by JoshBoogie:
Quote Originally Posted by PaxCap: Yeah I agree the weather can play a part in the game but I also feel like boston is too dangerous at home and if David price can keep tampa bay from starting out strong... I can see boston winning 5-2 easyI think it's not wise to take a Boston game Runline especially since there's going to be rain. Godley hasn't been great on the road and I feel like that game will be pretty low scoring. Best of luck man, just be careful.
Yeah I could see that, Just becareful. Don't want to pay for David Price and get Joe Kelly - Know what I mean ? lol Let's kill the books today! |
JoshBoogie | 17 |
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Good luck |
KC_4_LIFE | 6 |
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I agree with Weeble - Severino will come to play today. This is not KC we're talking about! I am not on this game just because I don't feel like sitting through 2 hours of weather delay. Also if that happens they may pull Severino, but Weeble, I like your posts man, good stuff, and best of luck |
weeble5672 | 15 |
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Best of luck tonight Midnight! |
Midnight1 | 4 |
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COL @ ATL | ATL -151 I really love Atlanta in this spot. I'm using this game as my contingency though (in case Houston loses). Just merely due to the fact that it's expensive. But I feel like this might be the spot to take a Braves team that hasn't been great versus Colorado - a team I feel they should've handled. I didn't take Atlanta yesterday because Colorado destroys lefties, but I considered it the day before. Marquez is better on the road tomorrow and I feel tomorrow's match up is less compelling. Colorado, like Seattle, has a negative run differential, a +6.52 luck value and I'm sorry guys, I just don't buy the BS. Let's pay for some good ol' quality home field advantage. I'm going to quantify this as a 61% win (+1.4 ROI). What do you guys think? |
PaxCap | 7 |
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I think it's not wise to take a Boston game Runline especially since there's going to be rain. Godley hasn't been great on the road and I feel like that game will be pretty low scoring. Best of luck man, just be careful. |
JoshBoogie | 17 |
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MIL @ STL | MIL +131 There are some injuries in this game but I think Milwaukee is the better team, now with the series tied 7-7 I believe the Cardinals have a slight edge (52%), but are drastically overpriced @ -140. This is definitely a pressure situation for Milwaukee but I think this is the better side to take. I will say "First Five Innings" may be a better bet because key guys in the Brewers pen (Josh Hader) hasn't pitched since 8/11. I wonder how sharp that bullpen is going to be.
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PaxCap | 7 |
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Good Luck Man! |
In2it | 18 |
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There's rain in the Braves and Pirates games but I love the Brewers game |
d41reds | 5 |
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HOU @ OAK | HOU -105 I didn't want to pay -145 for Houston last night because I really feel this is the best game to take them (not Verlander tomorrow, because you will for sure over pay for him). Ask yourself, would Trevor Cahill be a -105 split in Houston (He should be Houston is terrible at home anyway). But probably not, He's probably be a +135 / Hou -145. I know Dallas Keuchel hasn't been great this year, but he's been better on the raod, and I think Oakland has more problems with left handed hitters in that huge gross Oakland park. I think Houston is a undervalued team given their injuries and recent play, but this is good value. Take the better team, with better defensive numbers, more speed, more power better pitching and know that you're going to have to survive some bullpen scares. If Dallas can give us 5.5 good innings and the 8th inning can be a within 2 runs (either way) I think we're in for a win. Here's the simulation. I expect Houston to win 12/19 in this series overall. Houston is currently 9/14. There are 5 remaining games. so let's go with 3/5 (60%) ----------------------------------------------- Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics
SIMULATED SCORE: Houston Astros 4.8 - Dallas Keuchel 61.7% Oakland Athletics 3.7 - Trevor Cahill 38.3%
Houston Astros
Calculated Price: -161 Chances of Winning: 61.7% - Profitable Chances of Covering: 47.4% - Profitable
Oakland Athletics
Calculated Price: 161 Chances of Winning: 38.3% - Bad Bet Chances of Covering: 52.6% - Bad Bet
EXPECTED OUTCOME: Houston Astros -1.1 EXPECTED TOTAL: 8.5
BEST SIDE: Houston Astros -105
BEST TOTAL: UNDER (51.5% ) No Value
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PaxCap | 7 |
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Games I will NOT be betting. Yankees, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Pirates
I hold myself accountable on all aspects of a game. I'm never going to advise taking a game where there is rain because you're not sure what you're getting. If you take a total and they call the game you get no actioned and it's a waste of time, if you bet a side you're not guaranteed the lineup you paid for is what you're getting. Bets are transactions. Make sure you get what you're paying for. All the above games have weather, so unless the deal is amazing I suggest staying away from these games. Side note: the way I pick games is kind of like the scientific method. I look for reason to not pick a game, if I can't find any - then I proceed to finding the side with the edge. Yes... I use a computer... Yes, It actually models the game play by play. |
PaxCap | 7 |
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Insights^ Ugh. lol |
PaxCap | 7 |
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Hey Everyone, I'm new to the community, but I've been sportsbetting professionally for a over 20 years now. I'd like to share my insites to the forum here so I'll be posting my plays one at a time in the comments section. Really just trying to get people's attaention and engage in some meaningful discussion. Being new, it's difficult to post something and not just have it ignored with all the posts, so I'll try this way. I'll be posting my write ups / plays in this thread as I evaluate them. I'm not the most popular guy on this forum, but I assure you, I know my stuff and I think we can all make some money together. |
PaxCap | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:
22-6 this year..... What is that record? |
Xaquun | 7 |
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No, in 3 years of data, Favorites sweep dogs more than they split. and dogs sweep favorites only around 32.4% of the time. |
Xaquun | 7 |
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MIL @ STL | MIL +115 5DIMES Ahhh So finally the underperforming Cardinals win a few games in a row (to where they should be in the first place) and everyone wants to jump up and down and pick them like it's the bet of the year. Let's act like we've been here before folks. This has nothing to do with pithcing, hitting or any of that stuff. This is plain math. Here's why Milwaukee is a good play today. There are 19 games in this series (as in most divisional series). Milwaukee is 7-6 (or 7/13). I expect Milwaukee to win 10/19 in the series overall. There are 6 games left. I think Milwaukee will win 3/6 (not crazy right?) soooo.... 3/6 = 50%. You get a team that has a 50% chance of winning for a +115 (46%) Therefore there is value in taking this team you're getting a +100 event for +115. Thta'ts +EV folks. Yes, I know Peralta got blown up last time out.. don't worry about all that. He just needs to give them 5 okay innings, without more than 3 runs.... Thta's it. Not asking for a perfect game, just a chance to be within slam range. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Cardinals hater. I actually think they're very talented. I like the aggressiveness in which they run bases, their pitching is a little more consistent. They have talent in the pen but they just don't match up well against the Brewers. Yes, the friday night cardinal crowd will be going nuts... but let's take the mathamatically sound team, the one with better defensive numbers, higher WAR on offense, and a more power / speed.
Here's the model: Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
SIMULATED SCORE: Milwaukee Brewers 4.3 - Freddy Peralta 50.2% St. Louis Cardinals 4.3 - Jack Flaherty 49.8%
Milwaukee Brewers
Calculated Price: -101 Chances of Winning: 50.2% - Profitable Chances of Covering: 64.2% - Profitable
St. Louis Cardinals
Calculated Price: 101 Chances of Winning: 49.8% - Bad Bet Chances of Covering: 35.8% - Bad Bet
EXPECTED OUTCOME: Milwaukee Brewers 0 EXPECTED TOTAL: 8.7
BEST SIDE: Milwaukee Brewers +113 BEST TOTAL: OVER (50.6% | No Bet ) |
PaxCap | 1 |
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There's a lot of weather out there today. I don't mind weather, but I am big on getting what you pay for, and if there's a delay and you don't get the starter you piad for, I feel like you're getting ripped off. That being said. Here are my two best bets for today.
BAL @ CLE | CLE -370 5 DIMES Yes, Yes, This is chalk.. Yes, if you take these type of games a lot you'll get hurt. I know. I'm not new to this, but I feel like this is actually one of the more value plays of the day. If this was any other sport this game would easily be in the -500 neighborhood. I woudn't pay for Scherzer but this I'm okay with. No I don't want you to take -1.5 because that is not the same bet, and believe it or not actually renders a lower ROI. Let's keep it simple, -370. And let's be honest with each other, look around on the forum, no one is jumping up and down for -370 ib Cleveland, people are considering it but it's price tag is designed to scare you away. I know what trap looks like, and this folks, this is a giveaway. Take the Native Americans to beat the Showalters... Somehow that guy has a job, but Mike Methney is at the unemployment office. Mmhm
Here's the Model
Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians
SIMULATED SCORE: Baltimore Orioles 3.1 - David Hess 20.7% Cleveland Indians 6.4 - Carlos Carrasco 79.3%
Baltimore Orioles
Calculated Price: 384 Chances of Winning: 20.7% - Bad Bet Chances of Covering: 31.4% - Bad Bet
Cleveland Indians
Calculated Price: -384 Chances of Winning: 79.3% - Profitable Chances of Covering: 68.6% - Profitable
EXPECTED OUTCOME: Cleveland Indians -3.4 EXPECTED TOTAL: 9.5
BEST SIDE: Cleveland Indians -370 BEST TOTAL: OVER (51.4% )
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PaxCap | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:
Gavligio is awful on the road. The line is not a trap. The 1st 3 games are all similar lines. Of course they're all approx the same price. KC has a 37.5% chance of winning in the all the games combined. But that's the format they use with every match-up. (unless there is an Ace or a terrible starter). It was -135 when Reid-Foley (equally as bad) rookie took the mound. I wouldn't pay -132 for that guy either. Would it be crazy to think they split the series? |
PaxCap | 3 |
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There's a ton of guys, including Covers' own Larry Ness out there touting the Blue Jays as a quality position tonight and while from a far this matchup looks like it's worth the 32 cents on the dollar I'm saying we need to be careful. Sure Glenn Sparkman isn't anything to write home about. He's a 20th round pick who hasn't started and has awful Triple A numbers. But I remind you, when guys like this come into the majors the veterians seem to get into hack mode, and if that happens you're looking at a low scoring one sided loss. Sure, Sam Gaviglio is the better pitcher - but is he really 32-35 cents better? I honestly don't see it. High WHIP with low Fastfabll effectiveness, not great at stranding runnders on base. Not to mention that KC will start a considerable amount of LHB. Toronto is a all or nothing team. I expected Toronto to take 62.5% of the games in this series, they've already done more than that. Ask yourself, would it really be crazy if the Royals won here? a team who has a -3 Luck value (versus Toronto +2 Luck value). Would it really be crazy if KC went 2/7 versus a Blue Jays team that will finish the year sub 500? I'm not saying you should take the Royals. I'm saying make sure you know what you're paying -132 for. Kind of feels like a sucker bet. |
PaxCap | 3 |
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Thanks man! Thanks for responding! |
PaxCap | 3 |
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