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Thread Author Ordinaryday6 Post Entries
jay1234
jay1234
season=2015 and p:runs=0

then to expand outwards in a chase you change it to 

season=2015 and pp:runs=0 and p:L

and just keep adding the appropriate number of "p"s for each chase level
jay1234
jay1234
i wouldn't rely too heavily on this; i think what you're seeing is short-term variance. so far this season, if you were doing a 7 game chase, there would be 1 loss. last season there would be 3 losses. that's per sportsdatabase.com
Danrules24
Danrules24
Thanks Dan. I got +110 on it, so I took it.
Danrules24
Danrules24
Also, I have sea/tex over 7.5. Do I play that? Or do you have another suggestion? Thanks.
Danrules24
Danrules24
Is that NY bet Mets -1.5 or Yankees ML? I have the same odds on both.
Danrules24
Danrules24
for what it's worth, i see KC -102 and SD 100. but i agree, it doesn't look like a very good day.

so, question: i've been using sagarin ratings to play underdogs, and i wondered if anyone else uses it. because the ratings aren't (as far as i know) archived daily, to begin the season i used the info through the end of last year. in the last couple of days i started looking at this year's info.

the first 7 days using last year's info were great, and the last 4 days not so much, while the last 4 days using this year's info have been 50%.

has anyone actually used the system and tracked it? i'd feel a lot more comfortable with the 6 picks i see today if i had some historical basis for it. thanks for any help you can give. i appreciate it.

we can survive this rough patch. i'll be going conservatively today though, for sure. good luck to everyone.
Danrules24
Danrules24
yesterday was horrendous all around. i'm chalking it up to just a bad day. let's get this. bol!
Danrules24
Danrules24
Cool, thanks. I've been doing really well with the early games so far, but I was off last night and for some reason didn't check to see when the games start. One thing I haven't been able to get into yet is over unders, so I appreciate the recommendation. Thanks dude. I'll never do this again... hopefully. Lol
Danrules24
Danrules24
Crap, I just woke up. Do you have any other recommendation for system 3? Thanks.
Danrules24
Danrules24
nice win. great day. 
Danrules24
Danrules24
i can't believe the yankees just retied it up in the 16th to give us the system 3 win. sweet.

as for mm strategy, i have a lower bankroll than all or most of you guys, i'm sure lol. i've been spreading out the chases between all of my plays, and because i did well the last few days i started over today. later in the season i'll probably play out each of the chases, but it's so early. last year i got behind early in the season and never fully recovered. i'm doing well so far, and i'd like to keep it that way. 

as long as kc can hold on to win, i've got a 46% roi day. it helps that as soon as oak went up 3-0 on sea, i hedged it -2.5 at -135. i'll take the winning day and up all of my bets tomorrow to compensate for the other system losses.

gl to all.
JoeMahirap
JoeMahirap
hey nice start. i've been tailing. nice job.
Danrules24
Danrules24
nice win on the grand slam for system 3 lol
Danrules24
Danrules24
ah ok, cool. sorry if i missed something, but which dog spreadsheet?

i'm probably going to run the strongest away team (fave or dog) parlay anyway, along with your parlays, at least for a little while. i know it works for the first 2 weeks, and i'll backtest the rest of it in the next few days. in case anyone is interested, it's CLE & SF today.
Danrules24
Danrules24
hey, i know your parlay systems aren't the 2 strongest away teams like you did with nhl, but have you looked into doing that for baseball as well? i just started backtesting, but haven't gotten very far. i didn't know if anyone else had backtested it and it didn't work. but so far (according to killer sports) for 2013 & 2014 through 4/12 (like i said, not far)

A 9
B 3
C 2

F 1
Danrules24
Danrules24
Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:

on the totals parlay, what are your parameters? i'd be happy to backtest it for you if you have a specific way of handicapping it.

definitely looking forward to tailing you this season. good luck to all!

also, will you start on this tomorrow?
Danrules24
Danrules24
on the totals parlay, what are your parameters? i'd be happy to backtest it for you if you have a specific way of handicapping it.

definitely looking forward to tailing you this season. good luck to all!
Danrules24
Danrules24
why do you even bet (chases, nonetheless) if you can't handle losses? what a loser. in more ways than one.
Danrules24
Danrules24
awesome win. huge. i was going to cut it off after this and the nashville game, but i may stick it out. 

question though: i see where TB is at home on 4/9, but i only see one more game after that: 4/11 vs BOS, on the last day of the regular season. i thought the system required at least a 3 game homestand? are you assuming playoff games?
Danrules24
Danrules24
great win. i think i'm also done for the year with this. thanks dan. see you for baseball. :) 
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