Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
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Adding:
Rangers, -132 (3U) I love the price Feldman is getting me here against Hughes. This is actually like facing one of the best bullpens (rested) in baseball for more innings. We'll see mostly righties I think against a Yankee line-up that wants to see a lefty. Feldman, Ogando, Adams, Nathan, etc. Home team, better pitching, better hitting situation. -132 seems more than fair. And fuck the White Sox. That was the most pathetic all-around game bay anyone not named Chris Sale I've ever seen. It wasn't just Santiago. They blew that game ten times before that. The A's really had no chance if The Sox even just played like shit....but they played worse than that. |
IllusionsGOB | 4 |
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I want to lose this White Sox play so bad. It will be worth it to watch them lose here. They could have scored ten times today and pissed it away every time. I'll gladly pay to see them get what they deserve....worst execution ever.
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IllusionsGOB | 4 |
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The White Sox should have won this ten times already so it better end well
Adding one tonight: Royals under 7.5, even (3U) |
IllusionsGOB | 4 |
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Monday: 2-3, -2.1 Units
Season: 39-31, +22.59 Units Average Play: 1.61 Units (113U/70G) ROI: 20% (return per unit invested) Tuesday: Royals, +122 (2U) Royals under 8.5, -105 (1U) Tigers TT over 4.5, -110 (1U) Angels, +130 (1U) Athletics, -104 (1U) Early wednesday: White Sox, -125 (2U) Good luck with whatever you play |
IllusionsGOB | 4 |
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Updated card:
Royals, +122 (2U) Royals under 8.5, -105 (1U) Tigers TT over 4.5, -110 (1U) Angels, +130 (1U) Athletics, -104 (1U) |
IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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Adding:
Angels, +130 (1U) Price's biggest advantage is that lefties can't touch him (0.465 OPSa last year against lefties vs. 0.647 OPSa against righties......0.8 difference in 2010). He's solid but unspectacular against righties. He won't see one lefty tonight against a versatile Angel's line-up so it's a good time to grab a very live dog. Ervin Santana has also been pretty unlucky so far while Price has deseved even worse of a beating than he's taken. I set this line a bit higher than where it is but I just feel like this is an under-adjustment or lack of adjustment to a good matchup for the Angels. Price does't deserve a premium Price until he earns it. |
IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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Thanks tinfoils, u2
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IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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No Smoak or Ryan for the M's tonight in-case anyone was counting on offense from them for any reason......the wind is flying out in Comerica at 21 mph though. I ignored Seattle and grabbed the Tigers TT over against Vargas, the extreme fly-baller who has pitched a bit over his head (his ERA is almost a run better than his xFIP*). Another reason not to mess with the Seattle hitting side was that Scherzer's been very unlucky in his starts so far (his ERA is 4.5 worse than his xFIP).
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IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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Updated card:
Royals, +122 (2U) Royals under 8.5, -105 (1U) Tigers TT over 4.5, -110 (1U) Athletics, -104 (1U) The A's brought out a wierd line-up card tonight. The value is pretty thin there. I don't care about Suzuki/Recker at catcher but I wanted and expected Kila (lefty) and/or Coco (switch hitter) out there against Floyd. I still like them but what would have been a 2-unit play may just be worth 1-unit. Good luck all. |
IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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Mauler
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IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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Added:
Tigers TT over 4.5, -110 (1U) Royals, +122 (1U) just adding a unit to my previous play |
IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KVEGAS: What are the under conditions? I had Barrett umpiring, the wind expected to be blowing in from right, a Texas lineup without Beltre, and a Yankee lineup that wants to hit a lefty instead (especially with Gardner out forcing Chavez in). This would have helped my game under but obviously not the team total. I'm passing on it because Beltre is now starting and the team total is only 4.5 even though Texas is favored in a game where the total is ten. I wanted 5 and some juice (and that was with no Beltre) or 5.5. And for the record, I don't consider the ballpark an over factor. It's already factored in the line so it really doesn't mean anything unless it's being overrated/underrated or it matches a pitcher's specific style. |
IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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Monday: 2-0, +2.06 Units
Season: 37-28, +24.69 Units Average Play: 1.65 Units (107U/65G) ROI: 23% (return per unit invested) Monday recap: White Sox, -106 (1U) Yankees, +106 (1U) Hopefully yesterday was the start of another hot streak. I hit my plays and my lean (Blue Jays) and I feel really good about my AL knowledge and approach right now. The only bad part is that if I wasn't getting defensive I'd have won 5 units instead of 2. I'm going to stay defensive for one more day and keep each of my plays a unit smaller than usual. Tuesday Plays: Royals, +122 (1U) Royals under 8.5, -105 (1U) Athletics, -104 (1U) I'm also going to take the Rangers TT under if the number is good (I'll post it when I get it). I have to find a way to take advantage of the under conditions in this game without involving Yu Darvish. |
IllusionsGOB | 12 |
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Paidonjok - Thanks u2
SportsFreak - GL tonight Kirbs - Thanks u2 |
IllusionsGOB | 15 |
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Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils: You have any lean on the yankee total? On the fence leaning to the over but.............. Hey tinfoils......I'm on the fence on this total too. I set the total at 8.8 and it's at 9. You may have seen my thoughts on Holland this year. I think he's as good as any lefty in the AL, including CC but this game just has that feel for me. Last year he had a few starts where he just got rocked. When things go good for Holland they seem to go very good but when it rains it pours. The Yankees will definitely put him in a position to have a blow-up inning at least once in this game. The Yanks don't miss Gardner in this game as he's be sitting against the lefty anyway. Their offense is already better against lefties. Again, I love Holland but there will be a few times where he gets rocked and there's no better time than against this team (who has hit well against him) in this stadium.... The Texas side might be tougher to get runs from. Beltre (maybe other than Josh Hamilton/Roy Hobbs) is the most important loss they could suffer in this matchup in my opinion. He's the best right-handed bat in the middle of the line-up. Only Young has had any success against CC and even he has 0 HR in 45 AB's (i go by OPS). Also hurting the over is the fact that you have the top two bullpens in the AL. The Yanks bullpen needed some rest and they got it yesterday so they're fresh. As you can see, I definely see pros and cons on the side but while they're mixed as far as the total is concerned, they all point me to the Yankee side. Good luck |
IllusionsGOB | 15 |
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Updated card:
White Sox, -106 (1U) Yankees, +106 (1U) |
IllusionsGOB | 15 |
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Chris Stewart is catching for the Yanks, not Martin. It's starting to look like he might be Sabathia's personal catcher (for those who try to predict line-ups overnight). This change is worth one to two cents offensively against a lefty....not nearly as costly as Texas losing it's top righty bat (Beltre) against Sabathia.
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IllusionsGOB | 15 |
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Added:
Yankees, +106 (1U) I also lean to Toronto. I'd play it for a unit most nights but tonight I dropped my 2 unit plays to a unit and I passed on my normal 1-unit plays. Just getting defensive. |
IllusionsGOB | 15 |
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Thanks tinfoils, u2
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IllusionsGOB | 15 |
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Thanks Snake, u2
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IllusionsGOB | 15 |
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