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This should be a really fun game for the fans to watch....unless Palmer still has his head stuck ALL THE WAY UP his a$$. Peyton just doesn't have the arm strength any more, but for Palmer to make the decisions he made & get out with a team W was almost as unbelievable as Rodgers last minute magic. And that head up the a$$ goes for the AZI D also. How can you let a 55ish yard completion happen on 4th down with the opponent QB running for his playoff life from his own end zone?!?! These lapses are just absolutely unreal!! That is why today's NFL is almost a guaranteed losing wager long term, unless you spot bet smartly. Every game cant warrant a wager, right? And this one may fall into that category. IF Palmer has his head where he could actually see the sunshine, then I favor the OVER here, with either team capable of reaching Super 50. Ohhh, and by the way....WTF was Cam doing in the 4th quarter?? Leading crowd cheers from the sideline instead of playing solid football, afraid he wasn't going to make next week if he tried to make another play for his team to ice the W?? AND THEN....in victory formation, totally lost his brain & tried to run a few extra ticks off the clock when even the MOST BASIC MATH SKILLS would quickly inform your pea brain that was unnecessary. CAM was the cause of that last bit of unsportsmanlike finish--it is an unwritten rule of victory formation!! So, again, wayyy to much immaturity & poor decision making in question to feel good about a side at present for me. Maybe that will subside as the week wears on. As always BOLTA! |
Covers | 51 |
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To be sure, Peyton looked pretty weak overall. The wind ate his weak arm strength alive. Having said that, everyone who watched the game saw a RIDICULOUS number of dropped passes that would have been game changers if only 6-7 out of 10 had been caught. It's so simple to dismiss Manning's performance and quickly forget all those bread basket drops or relatively catchable balls in the receivers zone because the rest of the body of work was so hard to watch from a 1st ballot HOF'er. Anytime a receiver drops a sure 1st down, ANYTIME, it's a game changer from a number of potential perspectives. And his boyz dropped an Alabama butt load of them ( don't know how many that saying refers to, but sounds like a bunch doesn't it? lol) Can you imagine the continued drives, clock time with opposing D still on the field, lost points (3's or 7's--take your pick) etc, etc.... Completely different game ensues, without question. But, the NFL is ALL ABOUT woulda, coulda, shoulda. Having spewed all that, my keys to the game for any possible DEN win go as follows. 1) as stated above by az49erdog--CATCH the fkn football 2) the wind factor needs to be below 15mph for Manning to spin it--if above that, Den loses, barring some 4-5 turnover NE debacle 3) continue to dink & dunk to eat the clock, & hope you can establish some sort of ground game--a shoot out is an automatic Den loss if Peyton is under center 4) IF Peyton looks really shaky again, get the hook out--I know, I know....don't care! This is the season/super bowl on the line with the good of the many outweighing the good of the few, or 1. I believe Peyton would say the same, as he is the class act of the NFL, period. So I will wait for game day to get a real time wind report (sounds crazy, right?) Early lean is Den, at the moment....just feels like one last hurrah for Peyton is coming. Not confident in my gut feel though, been reeled in & boated many times before... LoL Did have all the home teams last weekend, went 3-1 ats, helped even up the beating I suffered on wild card weekend BOLTA |
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Very tuff 1 for me here..... Torn between the feeling that its Car time to move on one more level, and the fact that Sea will be more equipped to handle the situation than other teams would be, as mentioned by someone in a previous post. Before Car lost 2 CB's I was hard lean to Car, but now IMHO all hinges on the D front 4 of Car to be able to occupy lanes to free LB's in the running game, while at the same time making sure to CONTAIN CONTAIN CONTAIN on the pass rush. It will be more important to keep Wilson within a certain space rather than max pressure he can step up in or side step to the outside all together I believe. If Car front 4 wins the overall battle, then IMHO Car prevails 24 - 20. BOLTA
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Mr_E ...... rapistberger ........ LMFAO that was worth reading this thread all by itself man, good stuff! I have been leaning hard to Den all week, convinced that last week just put too much strain on the Pit team overall, including dirty shot to Brown distraction. Pit cant focus its frustration for that on Den team. Wayyyy too emotionally high, & misplaced focus, after a win like that to recover short handed for another playoff road test against the low oxygen & mile high crowd & strong D across the board....IMHO Den grinds one out with surgical eat'em up O & superior D performance at home, so that when the final whistle blows you look up & say....man, that didn't really feel like 27 - 13, but there it is on the scoreboard.... BOLTA |
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oh, and btw.....this isn't just any 'ol lefty COL is facing on the road. Hamels is 5-3 overall & TEAM is 6-4 in his 10 starts. That is 6 (SIX) of the TEAM total 19 wins backing Hamel. Nothing is for sure, but I'll back the proven commodity here, all day long, and twice on Sunday, as the saying goes. BOLTA
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COL .262 is above respectable overall, but go back & look at their avg vs lefties on the road.....huge drop off & runs scored also very poor vs L on the road......COL does the bulk of their damage, just like always, in the thin air.
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Something smells like dead fish with this ML......No way PIT should be a small fav here, IMHO. Books are begging you to take PIT for the price. Usually means go opposite way, when most everything else says take the fav. Just saying be careful here. Cross country jet lag? Leaning SD at this point. GLTA
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Lincecum never beaten the Reds??? OMG, unbelievable. I look for that streak to end today, with a good pitching duel. CINN pen loses a tight one late. I'll take my chances at a $150/$100 return local book, on SF in this spot. Looks wayyyyy too good to pass. BOLTA
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Cant believe no one hollered O V E RRRRRRRRR !!!! It looks really tasty in this spot...... CHC hitting 357 against L at home........ 3 5 7 WoW And as mentioned above, Wood getting lit up recently. I'll take "an early afternoon slug fest" for $300 please Alex. BOLTA
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Good observation Newty, as I didn't check for lineup changes. In my experience with MLB tho, lineup changes aren't as big a factor as in some sports, with field players. When pitchers recent history is grooving cheese taters, they are still grooving them to major league hitters, which is more times than not how that player arrived at the Bigs. They can all hit cheese taters. Plus, you still got the big bombers for WAS in there. It does concern me that A.J. is ATL best hitter tho.....that is kinda scary. LoL I definitely appreciate the insightful feedback, as it did send me back for a 2nd look, but 7.5 is always in range in todays MLB, right? Still gonna give the OVER a ride here. Thanks again, and BOL !
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ALL major trends, and ALL but 2 major statistical catagories favor the HAWKS in this one. One of the 2 edges WAS had was bench, and kiss that one goodbye with Wall out. Nene is asleep, and Teague is wayyyy past due to wake up. Pierce can run his mouth, but ATL will run his old legs in the ground today. For me, this one is easy. I can feel the blowout coming a mile away. ATL in a breeze, for 3 units ($100=1 unit) and am leaning to a 5 unit play. Truth be told, I feel like an all in play here, but that isn't really good bankroll mgmt. But that is how good I feel about the HAWKS today. As always, BOLTA
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Here is an OVER play that I look for & jump on when it occurs. No one game can be a guarantee, but if you look for this combination of SIMPLE factors & play the over consistently when they show up, you will be an overall winner to the tune of about 70-30 W-L. When both starters ERA is less than 4.0, with a combined total ERA of less than 7.0 (season to date), AND total HR's surrendered in last 5 games by both starters is 8 or more, AND the O/U is 7.5 or less, then JUMP on the OVER. You can expand the starters total ERA (season to date) to 7.5 if the HR's surrendered total goes to 9 or more, and still be fairly consistent with the over play. I like this one for at least a 3 unit ($100=1 unit) play and am considering a 5 unit play since I am up 14 units last 2 weeks total. Ride it while you are hot, right? LoL BOLTA
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Here is the plain & simple truth : Harden CAN'T have a mental melt down with ball in hand, & Smith & Brewer CAN'T play like scrubs. Harden WILL be better tonight, I have no doubt. And Smith is pretty much an every other game player, so this should be his every other night to be something other than a uniform filler. Brewer, I will write that off as just one of those games. HOU statistically if off the charts as a GREAT wager coming off a 10+ point SU defeat, & after a loss, period. I don't like the number, but if you have the stones to take a ML wager on HOU I think you would be good. I might lean to a HOU & under teaser getting 4 points each way for HOU -3 & under 218. BOLTA
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I have to like CHI again because.....what has changed in 2 days?? IMHO....NOTHING Unless CLE shoots lights out, I don't think they can cover the 6. I feel a last second victory is their best chance tonight. CHI can control the game more to their liking with no Love or Smith, as evidenced with 2 fast break points for CAVS in game 1. Will be really hard to repeat that, but the way to beat LBJ, the way that has always been to beat ANY LBJ team, is MINIMUN TURNOVERS. That keeps his superior ability in check as much as can be expected, and reduces the chances of his mates & crowd getting jacked up. Otherwise, it's a grind 'em down CHI squad that is a bad matchup for CLE current rotation. Frankly, I would like CLE chances a LOT MORE if they played Marion closer to 25 mins, & inserted Perkins at least 15 mins to beat on Gasol or Noah a little bit. What would they have to lose?? You never know when that unorthodox style of Marion's will net you 10-12 points & some solid D resistance for 2-3 8 min spurts. But CAVS coach seems uninterested in this, so, unless he goes all out with his available bench in this ALMOST must win game, I look for another CHI cover, and very possibly a 2-0 lead. As always, BOLTA
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Just some food for thought here...... I am always very very leary of backing any team on the END of a 5 games in 7 days run. ESPECIALLY a rag-tag bunch of under achieving 31-40 clowns that squabble amongst themselves, with personal agendas in the forefront. That shoot just upwards of 43%, and reside in the weak East, where they can play mediocre ball 90% of the time and still squeak into the playoffs. Once you decide/realize all you need to do is put out minimal effort and teamwork to skate by, that is extremely hard to turn around. They probably would be somewhere around 20-51 in the West, and on the way to a lottery pick. MIL is most likely getting reinforcements and are rested. The most important trends/stats mostly favor MIL in this spot as well. Having said that, I am leaning hard towards a 2 unit play on MIL @ home. As always BOLTA
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steve828 | 6 |
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I am confused....you say you are taking the -2, which to me anyway, indicates you are backing IND, hence taking the -2. BUT, your post header is BBUUUCCCCCKKKKSSSSSSS??
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Jailbait7127 | 9 |
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PHI playing 8th game in 12 days, 4th in 5 days......that's how you hit the wall in the NBA!! gimmie DEN for a dime in this spot...should run away with it!!
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Did you catch it mid air, and slap it reverse on your hand, wrist, or forearm....or did you let it hit the ground and come to a final unfettered rest???? It's an important question.....
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CrazyMilkMan | 3 |
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PS: Also HATE to bet any NBA team (DEN in this case) on a 4 games/5 days - 5 games/7 days schedule.....ESPECIALLY against the defending Champs......just saying GLTA
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DEN is Jeckle & Hyde, while the SPURS are re-establishing since getting their squad back on the floor together. I don't rule DEN out, especially since IMHO their roster should have better overall results, but injuries have banged away at them also. Will wait a bit to see if McGEE & Leonard suit up..... Early lean SA.....may be a no play for me. GLTA
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