The Alliance of American Football enters Week 8, meaning there are just three weeks left until the postseason (if there is one). The playoff picture looks fairly set in the East as Orlando has clinched and Birmingham has a firm grip on second place. But the West is wide open and there is a big game that will go a long way in determining the top seed on Sunday night.
But first, some off-field news after league majority owner and chairman Tom Dundon said on Wednesday that the AAF could be in danger of folding if the NFLPA doesn't cooperate by allowing the league to use young NFL players.
"If the players union is not going to give us young players, we can't be a development league," Dundon, who made a $250 million investment into the AAF last month, told USA Today Sports on Wednesday. "We are looking at our options, one of which is discontinuing the league."
Dundon also said that he will make a decision about the league's future over the next couple of days.
Week 7 Betting Recap
Week 7 was not my best week, to say the least. My leans went 0-3-1, missing on Over 40.5 in the Salt Lake-San Antonio, San Diego +3.5, and Birmingham -3 while getting a push with Over 42 in the Orlando-Atlanta game.
My best bet was also a swing and a miss as San Antonio only managed to win by four when I had them at -5. Tough week but we saunter onto Week 8.
Season totals: Leans 9-14-1, Best Bets 2-4.
AAF Betting Trends
- The Over/Under went 2-1-1 last week and is now 12-15-1 on the season.
- The road team went 2-2 against the spread and is now 11-5 ATS over the last four weeks.
- Underdogs won outright in two of the four games last week and have now won outright in five of the last eight.
- Home teams won outright in three of the four games last week and are now 16-12 straight up on the year and 13-15 ATS.
- Favorites are now 19-9 straight up and 14-14 ATS on the season.
- No double-digit favorite has covered the spread yet this season (three occurrences).
Week 8 preview
ORLANDO APOLLOS (6-1) at MEMPHIS EXPRESS (2-5)
Opening line: Orlando -10, O/U 42
TV: 2 p.m. ET, TNT
Orlando: 5-2 ATS, 2-4-1 O/U. On the road: 4-0 ATS, 2-1-1 O/U
Memphis: 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U. At home: 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Previous meeting: Orlando 21 Memphis 17 (Week 2)
Orlando got back on track following its first loss with a big win over Atlanta last week, clinching a playoff spot in the process. Garrett Gilbert was very efficient (19 of 23, 217 yards, TD) while De'Veon Smith ran for three touchdowns on 13 touches.
Memphis shocked Birmingham for its second win of the season by rallying to tie the game on a touchdown and two-point conversion with under a minute to go in regulation and then winning it in the league's first overtime game. Brandon Silvers started and finished the game at quarterback, with Johnny Manziel rotating in for a couple of series. Silvers played very well, going 24 of 35 for 266 yards and two touchdowns and should be under center for the majority of the game on Saturday.
Lean: Memphis +10 with two factors at play here. One is motivation, as Memphis looks to build off last week's comeback win and Silvers looks to keep his job over Manziel. I also question Orlando's motivation after locking up a playoff spot last week. Second is simply following the trend that no double-digit favorites have covered the spread yet in the AAF.
SALT DIEGO FLEET (3-4) at SALT LAKE STALLIONS (2-5)
Opening line: Salt Lake -3, O/U 40.5
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
San Diego: 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U. On the road: 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U.
Salt Lake: 5-2 ATS, 2-5 O/U. At home: 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U.
Previous meeting: San Diego 27 Salt Lake 25 (Week 5)
The Fleet continue to prove that they are just a different team at home than on the road, getting smoked at Arizona last week as QB Mike Bercovici threw two interceptions and the defense allowed four touchdowns on just 59 plays. San Diego is 0-3 straight up and ATS on the road this season.
Salt Lake played well last week and had a chance to tie it late but their two-point conversion attempted resulted in an interception that was returned for a touchdown, giving San Antonio a four-point win. The Stallions have been solid at home where they've earned both of their wins and lost just once to the best team in the league (Orlando).
Lean: Salt Lake -3. Not an overly strong lean here and more of a play on trends with each team's ATS record and home/away splits.
ATLANTA LEGENDS (2-5) at BIRMINGHAM IRON (4-3)
Opening line: Birmingham -6, O/U 38
TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Atlanta: 2-5 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U. On the road: 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U.
Birmingham: 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U. At home: 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U.
Previous meeting: Birmingham 28 Atlanta 12 (Week 3)
Atlanta showed signs of hope with wins in Weeks 4 and 5 but is back to being the worst team in the league after being blown out at home in each of the last two weeks. The Legends now have -117 net points, which is 78 less than the next closest team (Memphis). They have a grand total of 12 points in their last two games and Aaron Murray has thrown five interceptions over that span.
Birmingham looked to have its fifth win of the season in the bag but a late collapse gave Memphis an overtime win last week. The Iron played decently on offense, with QB Luis Perez throwing for two touchdowns and Trent Richardson running for another, but the defense could not get off the field as the Express dominated the time of possession.
Lean: Birmingham first half -4 (projected — actual line will be released on game day). I don't have a lean on the total but will back the Iron to start strong in a game that I think they win easily (see best bet).
ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (4-3) AT SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (5-2)
Opening line: San Antonio -1.5, O/U 43.5
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Arizona: 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U. On the road: 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U.
San Antonio: 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U. At home: 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U.
Previous meeting: San Antonio 29 Arizona 25 (Week 5)
The AAF saves the best for last in Week 8 as Arizona and San Antonio play with first place on the line.
The Hotshots have followed a three-game losing streak with back-to-back impressive wins over previously undefeated Orlando on the road two weeks ago and then crushing San Diego at home last week. Arizona has found a rushing game with 179 and 189 yards on the ground in each of the last two games.
San Antonio gets its second straight home game after playing four in a row on the road and should get a significant home-field advantage as the Commanders are averaging close to 30,000 fans on the season. They got the win but not the cover last week as they couldn't get much going on the ground with just 64 rushing yards against the Stallions.
Lean: Under 43.5. Here we have the highest total of the week between two teams that have combined for just one of six games to go Over the total when you take into account their road/home splits.
WEEK 8 BEST BET
Looking to break a two-week best bet slump by backing the Birmingham Iron -6. The Legends are just an absolute disaster right now, being blown out 36-6 and 37-6 at home in the past two weeks. The Iron return home after a two-game road trip and will be eager to get back in the win column after last week's late collapse.
INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT LEGALIZED SPORTS BETTING? CHECK OUT OUR NEW WHERE TO BET SECTION
