We're jumping on the run line with two of the best pitchers in the majors on two of the best teams as we dive into Saturday's baseball odds. We break down the odds for those games and much more as we bring you the top betting trends, predictions, in-depth analysis and free picks in our MLB Daily Line Drive. **video
DOUBLE PLAY PICKS
MINNESOTA TWINS AT KANSAS CITY ROYALS (-170, 9.5 @ BETAMERICA)
Minnesota has Jose Berrios on the mound for this afternoon's tilt with the Royals. Berrios has gone 8-3 this season with a 2.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He's coming off an undeserved loss to the Red Sox, when he held Boston to just a single run and fanned 10 batters in eight innings of work. A matter of fact in each of his last three starts he's allowed just a single run.
The Royals will respond with Danny Duffy who is 3-3 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Duffy is slumping lately going 0-2 in his last four starts with a 7.32 ERA.
The Twins lineup is dangerous and leads the majors in batting average (.286), slugging percentage (.533) and runs per game (6.53) on the road. Kansas City is below average at the plate and their .399 slugging percentage at home ranks 23rd in the bigs.
With Minny 16-6 in their last 22 away games and Kansas City 5-11 in their previous 16 games at home, grab the Twins on the run line.
PICK: Run Line Minnesota -1.5 (-120)
COLORADO ROCKIES AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-250, 8 @ BETAMERICA)
Dodgers lefty Hyun Jin-Ryu is fast becoming one of my favorite players to bet on, having gone 9-1 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over 14 starts. Ryu's control has been nothing short of incredible, striking out 85 batters while walking just five in 93 innings of work.
The Rockies will have one of their top prospects, Peter Lambert on the mound for just his fourth career start, but he's coming off a three inning debacle where he allowed eight runs against the weak-hitting Padres. And this Dodgers lineup is much better, batting .283 with a .510 slugging percentage at home, both marks good for second-best in the majors.
Like we mentioned yesterday, the Rockies only really hit well at home. On the road they bat just .229 (third-worst in the majors) with a .390 slugging percentage (fourth-worst). Ryu is coming off two no-decisions despite allowing a total of just one earned run in those games, but prior to that the Dodgers won on the run line as favorites in each of his previous six starts. They outscored opponents by an incredible 41-5 in those contests. Back L.A. on the run line.
PICK: Run Line Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)
Yesterday's picks: 1-1
Season to date: 79-83-4
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STREAKING/SLUMPING STARTERS
STREAKING
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds (7-1, 2.26 ERA, $-101): This honor could have easily gone to Berrios and Ryu as well but Castillo is also well-deserved with an outstanding BAA of .175 and 103 strikeouts in 87 2-3 innings. He's coming off a two-hitter in a win against the Astros. Castillo hasn't lost since April 3, but in the 13 games he's started since then the Reds have lost every game that he received a no-decision.
The Reds are a pick 'em for today's matchup in Milwaukee. It's worth nothing that the Reds are dead-last in the majors in BA on the road at .225, so run-support might be lacking for Castillo.
SLUMPING
Chris Archer, Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6, 5.85 ERA, $-431): Archer has been just brutal in his first full season in Pittsburgh, with a 1.52 WHIP and .261 BAA. In his last eight starts he's 2-5 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.
But there is good news for Archer, the Pirates are at home today against the San Diego Padres who hit just .241. And Archer is just normal bad at home with a 4.15 ERA and .242 BAA, not the "so bad he shouldn't be in the majors" he is on the road where he has a 8.42 ERA.
WEATHER REPORT
THREE STRIKES
'STROS SLUMPING
The Yankees have been a terrific Under play at home going 15-24-1 O/U this season. With the total set at 10.5 for todays matchup between Masahiro Tanaka (3.23 ERA) and Wade Miley (3.30 ERA), the Under looks like another good bet.
But another trend to watch is two teams moving in opposite directions, the Astros have lost six consecutive games while the Yankees have won seven in a row. It's also worth considering that Miley is just 2-3 with a 4.68 ERA on the road.
ON FIERS
Oakland A's starter Mike Fiers will try to keep the good times rolling as Oakland hosts the Rays. Oakland has gone 6-2 in Fiers last eight starts and Fiers has racked up a 2.63 ERA over the span. But Tampa Bay will have a strong pitcher of their own on the mound in Yonny Chirinos who is 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 2019.
With the Rays 19-7 to the Under in their last 26 road games and the Under hitting in nine of the previous 12 meetings between these two sides in Oakland, the Under 9 is worth consideration today.
FLYING OVER WITH PORTER
Anibal Sanchez and the Washington Nationals are small favorites at home against Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves. Folty has a 5.53 ERA this year and the Braves have gone 19-7-1 to the Over in their last 26 games, while the Nats are 4-1 to the Over in Sanchez's last five starts.
The Over 10.5 is intriguing, especially with umpire Alan Porter calling balls and strikes for this matchup. In his 13 games behind home plate this season there has been 11.6 runs per game and the Over has cashed 11 times.
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SATURDAY'S TOP CONSENSUS
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