The Philadelphia Phillies will look to complete a four-game home-and-home sweep as they host the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night.
Philadelphia has won three straight over New York, and my Mets vs. Phillies prediction expects more of the same after yesterday's lopsided match.
Both teams are turning to starters who have been struggling in the 2024 season — problems that could be exasperated in a hitter’s park tonight. We’ll break down the matchup in our free MLB picks for Thursday, May 16.
Mets vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Phillies moneyline (-135 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies needed a comeback win to take the first game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on Monday, but it has been a completely one-sided series since. The Phillies have outscored New York 19-9 over the first three games of this home-and-home stretch, and haven’t faced much resistance in the last two games.
That’s not terribly surprising considering how great the Phillies have been over the first quarter of the season. Philadelphia has been one of the best offensive teams in the league, averaging 5.27 runs per game, while also holding opponents to an average of 3.64 runs. That’s good for a +72 run differential and a Pythagorean record of 30-14 — second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers in both categories.
Tonight, the offense may have to carry the load. The Phillies are turning to Taijuan Walker, who has struggled to a 4.82 ERA and 5.25 FIP over his first three starts, allowing four home runs in just 18 2/3 innings of work.
Yet Walker is 3-0 in those games because Philadelphia can mash with anyone. Likely, the Phillies lineup will once again pick up for Walker tonight, as it has a great matchup against Mets starter Jose Quintana.
Overall, Quintana is just 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA this season. He hasn’t shown any ability to put hitters away, averaging just 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, while walking nearly four batters per nine as well. His 4.95 FIP and 1.548 WHIP are on pace to be the worst numbers of his 13-year MLB career.
Quintana has taken the Mets out of three of his last four starts, surrendering too many runs for the up-and-down New York offense to come back. Over his last four outings, he’s pitched to a 7.84 ERA in 20 2/3 innings — and that line would look even worse if not for an April 28 outing in which he allowed just one run on three hits over eight innings to an awful St. Louis Cardinals lineup.
I expect the Phillies to jump all over Quintana early, scoring enough runs to put this game out of reach for a Mets offense that has mustered an average of just 2.67 runs per game over their last six contests.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Over 8
Alec Bohm 2+ total bases
The Phillies should continue their dominance of the Mets tonight. In their home park with two shaky starting pitchers, that should mean plenty of runs, just as we saw in Wednesday’s game. I’m taking the Over in my same-game parlay.
Let’s also bank on Alec Bohm to pick up at least two total bases. Not only has Bohm hit this total in three of his last five games, but he should rake against a weaker left-handed starter, making him a great pick to get a couple of hits or extra bases at some point during the night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Mets vs Phillies live odds
Mets vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-165) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: New York +130 | Philadelphia -155
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Mets vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a -155 favorite in tonight’s game. Now, -135 is the best line available for the Phillies, with +120 on the Mets.
- The Phillies are up 13 units on the moneyline this year, while the Mets are down around 3.5 units.
- Tonight’s total opened at 8.5 runs. Depending on where you bet, you can get the Over/Under at either 8.5 or a flat eight runs as of Tuesday afternoon.
- The Mets and Phillies have hit the Over in four of their last five meetings.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Mets vs Phillies trend
The Phillies are 12-1 in their last 13 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies
Mets vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, NBCSP |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (1-4, 5.44 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Taijuan Walker (3-0, 4.82 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Mets vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
