United Football League Week 7 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Offenses Stuck in Mud on Mother's Day

With only four weeks remaining in the inaugural UFL season, there seems to be only one real playoff battle and three teams have been all but eliminated from contention.

Play gets underway for Week 7 on Saturday with one game in Arlington, TX and one in Birmingham, AL. Then it will conclude on Sunday with one game in Washington, D.C. and one in Houston, TX. 

Check out my free betting picks and UFL predictions for Week 7.

UFL picks for Week 7

• Showboats/Renegades Over 45.5
• Stallions -4
• Panthers/Defenders Under 43
• Brahmas/Roughnecks Under 38.5

Picks made on 5-10 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Week 7 UFL odds and predictions

Memphis Showboats vs Arlington Renegades

Saturday, May 11, 1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-10.

This battle will most likely be a true elimination game, as the Memphis Showboats are three games behind a playoff spot and the Arlington Renegades are four games behind. The Showboats took another beating at the hands of the undefeated Birmingham Stallions last week and the Renegades suffered yet another devastating collapse at the end of a contest, this time to the Michigan Panthers. 

These are the two worst defenses in the league and they will be facing off for the first time this season. Arlington has been careless with the football but they do have the No. 2 passing offense and the leading passer in the league in Luis Perez. The Showboats rank last in passing defense and allow their opponents to complete 70.3% of their passes. 

I feel very confident that the Renegades, who are much better than their 0-6 record, will finally get that first win of the season. However, the 5.5-point spread is just too high for a team that has played so many close games. Instead, I will just take the Over with the two defenses that allow the most points in the UFL. 

Pick: Over 45.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

St. Louis Battlehawks vs Birmingham Stallions

Saturday, May 11, 4:00 p.m. ET, FOX

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-10.

The main event of Week 7 will feature the undefeated Stallions against the 5-1 St. Louis Battlehawks in Birmingham on Saturday afternoon. This very well could be a UFL Championship game preview. The Battlehawks have a +70 point margin this season, and the Stallions have a +82 margin. 

The good news is that the injury report is relatively light and both teams will be near full strength. The bad news is that this will be a very tough betting matchup, as both teams match each other’s strengths so well. They rank one and two in just about every defensive category, including turnover margin. They also rank in the Top 4 of just about every offensive category, including the top ranks in scoring. 

Where I think the game will be won or lost is in the ability of Adrian Martinez to scramble and make plays with his legs. The Battlehawks rank fourth in rushing defense and Martinez is the second leading rusher in the league, despite having less than half the amount of carries as the league leader. I will take the Stallions to cover the 4-point spread, but not with as much confidence as I have had in them all season. 

Pick: Stallions -4 (-115 at DraftKings)

Michigan Panthers vs D.C. Defenders

Sunday, May 12, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-10.

While it may not be the highlight of the weekend, it may be the most important game in the league this week. The Panthers can all but clinch a playoff spot with a win, while a loss for the D.C. Defenders could be devastating to their playoff chances. The Defenders are coming off a huge 18-12 win over the San Antonio Brahmas last week to narrow the deficit to one game for second place in the XFL Conference. 

The Panthers were down 24-16 midway through the fourth quarter last week before storming back and winning on a last-second field goal with the best kicker in the league, Jake Bates. The Defenders played their best defensive game of the season and allowed only 67 passing yards to the Brahmas. While Danny Etling has played decently in his reserve role for the injured E.J. Perry, he will have a tough time with this D.C. defense. 

Even though the Panthers have been playing a lot of high-scoring games recently, I expect this game to go more into the Defenders’ recent style of keeping it low-scoring. The Defenders are one of the worst teams in converting on both third and fourth downs. The Panthers struggle with penalties and getting much going in the passing game. I like the Under here in a close game. 

Pick: Under 43 (-110 at DraftKings)

San Antonio Brahmas vs Houston Roughnecks

Sunday, May 12, 3:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-10.

The Brahmas will be looking to complete the Texas sweep this season and both stay ahead of D.C. in the standings and possibly eliminate the Houston Roughnecks from playoff contention. Even though the Brahmas are coming off a disappointing 12-point performance, that still trumps the dismal 8-point performance from the Roughnecks last week. In fact, it was a second straight week that they failed to reach double-digits in scoring. 

Houston is the worst offense in the league in first downs, third-down conversions, and scoring. However, they may be getting Jarret Guarantano back at quarterback, as he is not on the injury report this week. Meanwhile, reserve quarterback Quentin Dormady is coming off his worst game of the season for the Brahmas after already struggling in his previous two games. You would have to think he may be on a short leash with another bad game. 

While I would still favor the Brahmas to get this victory on the road, I do not love the 3.5-point spread. Instead, I will roll with the Under here with both offenses coming in playing very poorly. It would not be a surprise to see both teams finish with under 20 points, and they may even struggle to both get to double-digits.

Pick: Under 38.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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