The Las Vegas Aces start their quest for a WNBA title three-peat tonight against a new-look Phoenix Mercury team that’s reeling from an injury to Brittney Griner.
Despite Candace Parker’s retirement, the Aces bring back a loaded roster and our Mercury vs. Aces predictions expect A’Ja Wilson to shine in this May 14 matchup.
Find out more in our WNBA picks below.
Mercury vs Aces predictions
My best bet
A’Ja Wilson to record a double-double (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
There are plenty of reasons that the Las Vegas Aces are favorites to win it all again this season, but A’Ja Wilson is probably at the top of that list.
Wilson finished behind Breanna Stewart for the regular season MVP award but had the last laugh by bringing home another championship and the Finals MVP trophy.
I see Wilson making an early statement tonight, and I’m picking the former South Carolina star to finish with a double-double on opening night. On the heels of all the buzz around Wilson’s new Nike signature shoe deal, I expect her to just do it all here.
That starts with her scoring, which shouldn’t be an issue for cashing in the double-double prop. Wilson averaged 22.8 points per game on almost 56% shooting last year and she’s in line for more touches with Gray out tonight.
The rebounding part of the equation is more of a question mark, but I love the matchup here against the undersized Phoenix Mercury, who are missing Brittany Griner, their biggest interior presence.
Wilson’s length and athleticism are the difference-makers in what should otherwise be a backcourt battle. She finished with double-digit rebounds in six of her nine playoff outings and ended the 2023 regular season with at least 10 boards in four of her last seven contests.
The road to another WNBA Finals appearance starts tonight for Las Vegas and I’m jumping on these odds for Wilson to shine.
Mercury vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
A’Ja Wilson to record a double-double
Aces first half -9.5
Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 threes
Tonight’s spread suggests it’s going to be one long party for the Aces at Michelob Ultra Arena. However, with early season rust and Phoenix’s newcomers eyeing a strong start, a line of 16.5 is a hefty number for the hosts to hit.
I prefer playing the first-half spread, which is a more manageable 9.5-point margin. Las Vegas has so many scoring options and is coming off a ruthless outing against Puerto Rico in Saturday’s exhibition matchup, where the Aces led by 36 points at half-time.
I’m also adding a Kelsey Plum prop for tonight's SGP. Her ability to stretch the floor is crucial for this Las Vegas offense, having poured in 95 threes in 2023 at a 39% clip.
With Wilson attracting double teams in the paint, there are going to be open looks for the Aces’ sharpshooters — and Plum is a top candidate to take advantage.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Aces odds
Mercury vs Aces live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +13.5 (-110)| Las Vegas -13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +900 | Las Vegas -1,600
- Over/Under: Over 171.5 (-110) | Under 171.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Aces were an unstoppable winning machine in 2023, surging to a 34-6 regular season record and an 18-2 mark against their Western Conference rivals.
- That explains the monster spread here, and it’s been bumped up by Griner’s absence and the likelihood that the revamped Mercury will need time to gel around Diana Taurasi.
- The Over has been a winning ticket in the past five meetings between these teams, though Phoenix’s shaky preseason included an 85-59 loss to the Seattle Storm in which the Mercury shot 32% from the field.
- The current O/U of 168.5 speaks to Las Vegas’ offensive firepower, but the Under could be the safer play, especially if this turns into a blowout.
Mercury vs Aces trend
The Aces went 19-1 at home in the 2023 regular season and their fast start included covering the spread in four of their first five games at Michelob Ultra Arena. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs Aces.
Mercury vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 14, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Mercury vs Aces latest injuries
Mercury: Text.
Aces: Text.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
