The Atlanta Dream are looking for a “dream” start to the 2024 WNBA season going 2-0 on the road. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury are looking to avoid an 0-2 start in their home opener on Saturday night.
The Mercury played a respectable game in their opener in losing to the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces by only nine points. Now, they find themselves as 2-point underdogs at home against Atlanta.
My Dream vs. Mercury predictions run down the spread and total for this interconference battle as I give my best WNBA picks for Saturday, May 18.
Dream vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Tina Charles Over 13.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Atlanta Dream kicked off their season with a 92-81 road win against the Los Angeles Sparks and covered the 4-point spread. The win was powered by huge performances from their two stars, Tina Charles and Rhyne Howard. Charles had 21 points and 14 rebounds, while Howard had 25 points with two steals and two blocks. They held the Sparks to only shooting 39% from the field.
The Phoenix Mercury got off to a slow start against the champs, going down 29-14 at the end of the first quarter. However, they bounced back and kept the game close throughout before ultimately losing by nine, but still covering the 16.5-point spread. Without Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi led the way with 23 points, including going 7-for-11 from downtown.
Last season, these two teams met three times with the home team winning every game by double-digits. Taurasi racked up an amazing 42 points in the home win last year, which was also without Griner. She will need to come up big again and can with the Dream likely not having one of the better defenders in the league in Jordin Canada.
While I like Taurasi to have another good scoring game, her point total (16.5) is a little on the higher end considering she averaged this number per game last season. Instead, I will look towards Charles in the point totals. Her number is surprisingly low at 13.5 after her 21-point performance last game. She also has a great matchup in this tilt.
The Mercury allowed Aces center A’ja Wilson to dominate the post with 30 points and 13 rebounds. I do not expect Charles to meet that level of performance this late in her career, but I certainly believe she could put up another 20-point performance.
Dream vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Tina Charles Over 13.5 points
Tina Charles Over 7.5 rebounds
Diana Taurasi Over 16.5 points
Besides racking up the points, I also expect Charles to rack up the boards. She had 14 in the season opener and the Mercury allowed 37 boards to the Aces last game. Here, she only needs to get eight boards, which she has done in 10 of her last 17 games.
Finally, I will add Taurasi to hit her point total. I talked about this earlier as a contender for my best bet and it should be added to any parlays you plan on making for this contest. She has a history of showing out in games when she is needed even this late in her career, and she will be needed tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dream vs Mercury odds
Dream vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Dream vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Dream vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta -1 | Phoenix +1
- Moneyline: Atlanta -107 | Phoenix -107
- Over/Under: Over 168.5 | Under 168.5
Dream vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mercury opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line has completely switched at most places to make the Dream a 2-point favorite as of Saturday afternoon.
- The winning team has also covered the spread in eight of the last 10 matchups between these two teams.
- The Mercury have lost 12 consecutive games straight-up dating back to last season.
- Both teams scored right below or above this point total of 170.5 in their openers and the Under has hit in three of the last four matchups.
Dream vs Mercury trend
The Dream are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Mercury.
Dream vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, May 18, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Dream vs Mercury latest injuries
Dream: J. Canada (ques), L. Cubaj (out).
Mercury: B. Griner (out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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