Philadelphia Phillies

Picks

Hernandez is 5-for-12 against Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez with a pair of doubles and home runs, so it’s a little surprising to see his odds this long for a long fly Saturday. Of course, Hernandez also sports an elite .244 ISO against lefties over the past three years.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are +106 underdogs on the moneyline at FanDuel, and I’m backing them in Game 1 of the NLDS. I believe this line should be closer to -110. The Dodgers are in a great spot: they avoided any rust while also conserving their pitching staff thanks to a quick series against the Reds. Cristopher Sánchez is an elite left-handed starter, but the Dodgers lineup ranked third in wRC+ against lefties during the regular season. Shohei Ohtani has been tough on left-handed hitters this year, which should help neutralize Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber in the heart of the Phillies order. The Phillies may be the higher seed, but the Dodgers are the best team in baseball—and there’s a reason they’re favored in the series overall.

Sanchez has fanned six or fewer batters in nine of his past 12 starts, and the Dodgers also just faced the lefty and were able to put four runs on the board across seven frames while striking out six times September 28. Additionally, Los Angeles finished the regular season with the 10th-lowest strikeout percentage while ranking third in wOBA and second in ISO against lefties.