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I am going to change my Maia pick today as well after I see the Weigh ins. That is the thing that scares me with Weidman, on Twitter on Monday he said he was 204 and is usually 197 the Monday before a fight. If he does not look worn down I am going on Weidman as well.
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ctm1985 | 16 |
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Thanks guys... I am up in the air on Maia as well. If Weidman had a whole camp I would be all over him. Just getting a fight with 2 weeks I imagine cutting weigh has to be him # 1 priority. If he can beat a submission expert like Maia with such short notice I think the sky is the limit for him. I can't wait for next weekend. Diaz is my favorite fighter and I am from Philadelphia, so def want Giants to lose. If I can get them at plus 3.5 I am all over them though.. GL on the fights fellas
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jaymon1002 | 4 |
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Posted last week and went 2-2 on the fights, but lost my bigger bets and am down 240 dollars. Last week my units were 100 each, this week due to the Superbowl and loving Nick Diaz next week my units will be 50 each. Have 4 plays on the card I like. Jon Olav Einemo: Risking 2 units to win 2.7 units. This like most fights on the card is tough to call, but I think Einemo is more technical and can out point Russow for a dec win if it stays standing. If the fight goes to the ground Einemo has great shot at a sub victory. George Roop: Risking 2 units to win 2.5 units. This is more of a gut feeling as I do not think Cub Swanson should be the favorite here. Swanson has more holes in MMA than Roop and I hope Roop can expose them. Demian Maia: Risking 2 units to win 2.5 units. I was shocked when the line came out and this was not close to a pick-em. If Weidman had a whole training camp, I would be betting him as I love his up-side. Maia has faced way better competition and knows what it is like to be in a big fight atmosphere. Think his stand up is better than he gets credit for as well. Rashad Evans: Risking 4 units to win 2.3 units. Just think Rashad knows how much this fight means to his career and bank account. Unless davis has improved dramaticaly since last March I see Davis being able to take advantage on the feet and if it goes to the ground I think rashad has better MMA-wrestling skills. Welcome to comments and good luck to everyone else on their plays. |
jaymon1002 | 4 |
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Sawman, this was a great post as I am in the same boat with you. I just using my covers account last week on the UFC on FX card. I came on the site because of MR219. Had a buddy that would always rave about his UFC picks, so I wanted to see what the site was all about and I love it. The few things I have always done when capping fights before is watch tape of the fighters previous 3 fights nothing past that and watch Ariel Helwani interviews before the event. He seems to be the best at getting into the fighters mode and emotional state before the fight. In the end it is still a fight and a KO can happen at any time. I only been on here about a week, but you seem to know your stuff in your post. Sometimes a gut instinct works better than knowing all the stats and how you think a fight will play out. Good luck going forward man. |
sawman | 17 |
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Congrats on the night man.... Hope you climbed out of your hole. Should have went with Miller I knew Guillard is to crazy to keep with what was working.
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ctm1985 | 17 |
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Down 2.4 units for the night. 2-2 on the card. Wish Guillard would have kept his distance and kept lighting Miller up on the feet. Knew once he got caught on his 4th flying knee attempt he was done. Ohh well hopefully a better night next week.
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jaymon1002 | 6 |
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I am betting this kind of cash now... A few losing events and I will drop that figure to 3 units a card. I was def up last year betting on UFC, but don't have a solid figure of how much. Hopefully this will keep me from betting with my heart on certain fighters. Thanks for the welcome, I seen some people just arguing with people plays on other post. Good luck fellas
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jaymon1002 | 6 |
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I am new to covers and am starting a running total for the year now, since I was out of town last week for the fights. So be gentle is my first time. I bet 10 units each card, each unit for me is $100.00. 4 Units on Shalous to win 2.8. I am not sold on any M-1 fighter making their debut in the Octagon and Nurmagomedov is no diffrent. I see Shalous taking this to the ground and getting a TKO in the 2nd. 3 Units on neer to win 2.3. As long as Neer can impose his will and not stay standing with Ludwig in the center of the octagon has more ways to win than Ludwig. 2 Units on Guillard to win 3.0. This is a tough matchup to call either way, but as long as Guillard does not beat himself his physical skills are in my opinion the best in the lightweigh division. If Miller can grind him down and break his will it will be the last time I have a lean either way on a Guillard fight. 1 Unit on Rivera to win 1.3. Typical striker vs grappler matchup here and I was planning on putting more on Rivera until he made the announcment that he was retiring win or lose in this fight. Schafer is an average at best fighter and I am hoping Rivera pulls out a win to make his UFC record 8-7 and for an all around good guy in the fight game. Good luck on all of ure plays and any debate is welcome on my thread.
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jaymon1002 | 6 |
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. With you on the Neer bet, but against on the other 2. Hopefully we can hit some of our prop bets or some fights on the undercard and both come out on top. Try to talk me out of the Guillard bet I am placing for 3 units. I know he is a head case, but damn his physical skills and fighting so close to home makes me really lean towards him. Are you only against him cause he is a mental midget or do you think miller can grind him down and would win even if Guillard does not beat himself. Like I said good luck and hopefully we can both turn a profit. |
ctm1985 | 17 |
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GL on bets Mr219 . I never play parlays, but have some of the same straight up picks as you besides the main event. Love neer just think he has more ways to win even though Ludwig has the striking advantage ino. Morecraft if he is smart will not stand with Barry and should use his size advantage on the ground, he was able to take Mitrione down a few times. Rivera and Schafer is a slug-fest and both have been losing, but Rivera has been facing much stiffer competition. The only diffrence I have is Guillard over Miller, I think skill wise Guillard is the best lightweight in the division, but a head case. If he does not beat himself and loose focus he should be able to use his hands and secure a KO. I always look at your post to see how my thinking is compared to yours. Good luck on the fights again .
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MR219 | 153 |
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Thanks good luck to you as well. Who are your other plays? I am not a huge bettor so I see a value in Hettes and Diaz. Both may very well lose the fight, but is worth the risk in my opinion.
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jaymon1002 | 7 |
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I couldn't agree anymore. Nam Phan is no killer in the cage either. He has good boxing and movement, but no power. I am on this for a small play with these odds as well. GL |
easymoney8474 | 12 |
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Here are my plays for UFC 141. Not allot of live under-dogs on the card for me, but will try and find a few that I believe have a legit shot of cashing. Jon Fitch -260. He is just to good of a wrestler and should be able to grind out another victory over Hendricks. Fitch's wrestling is just to good and he seems to have the better MMA wrestling opposed to Hendricks amateur wrestling background. Placing 200 on Fitch. Diego Nunes -260. I am not as confident in this fight, but still think Nunes has enough of the total package to take a decision victory. Placing 150 on Nunes. Jim Hettes +180. I am not sure how Hettes will be able to take Phan down and keep him there, but if he does he should be able to have numerous chances for a Submission victory. Small bet on Hettes for 50. Nate Diaz +250. I am looking forward to this fight so much esp after the press confrence and weigh-ins. Both fighters come to bring it every time they are on a card. I think Diaz is a good value here and has a shot to be in the Cowboys head. Cerrone has the better tool set, but with these odds I think is worth a small play of 50 on Diaz. Brock Lesnar +120. Going into this fight both fighters have had their share of distractions outside of the cage. As for the fight I think as long as Brock can take this to the Ground he should be able to wear Reem out and eventually get a TKO victory. The big question is how many shots can Lesnar's chin take. I am going on the hope that Brock's athleticism can avoid the big shots. Placing 300 on Brock. These are my predictions and reasons why I see things going that way. Please add any other information if you agree or disagree. lets all try and have a winning night. Good Luck to everyone |
jaymon1002 | 7 |
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I meant Okl not Okl St in the above post..... Wish it was Okl St. That would be even more of a blowout though!!!
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jaymon1002 | 2 |
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Still getting the hang to the posting on covers thing, but had a great day yesterday going 2-0 on my first day on covers. Loved the over in Baylor game and got very lucky with my Fla. St call. Today I again am pounding the over in the Tulsa/Byu game over 57.5. Both teams again offer very little talent ont he defensive side of the ball. See game going over easily. Rutgers is a pickem at my local, so I am playing a small play on them, but am not as confident in that game. I do not have a lean either way in the Wake/Miss St game. A pretty even game and I will lay off it. The night game is another easy win in my opinion. Okl St. should cover the 13.5 with no problem. Their fire power on offense should make this game a blowout fast. Thanks for all the feedback yesterday and GL on everyones plays tonight. If anyone is into MMA I will posting my plays for UFC141 in a little bit. |
jaymon1002 | 2 |
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Some good advice in here I wish I would have listened. FSU offensive line is awful. Still have no clue why they went for 2 Points so early. Would have had a chance to push. Ohhhh well live and learn. On the over in Baylor game. Both teams have explosive offense and very little defensive talent. GL
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jaymon1002 | 19 |
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My local book has moved the line to -3. Usually that scares me, but I feel very confident on Fla. St. Good luck to everyone lets cash and jump on the over in Baylor 1st Half!!!!
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jaymon1002 | 19 |
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I would rather have the shoot at a push with the hook. I actually don't see how people do not buy the hook all the time on -3.5, -7.5, or -10.5. IMO that makes no sense, a little more juice is worth it to me. Good luck with all ure plays though. @Jimmy I love them too this bowl season thanks for the input.
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jaymon1002 | 19 |
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That is true, but I just really think their Defense will make UND way to 1 dimensional. I hope I am right on this play. Don't want my first post making me look like a Bozo!! Ahahaha Good luck on your plays appreciate the feedback
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jaymon1002 | 19 |
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MR219..... I just re-activated my covers account. Just letting you know that I always take a look at your plays before I put my bets in. We don't always agree, but you always have great write-ups and I respect your knowledge. Leaning towards Brock as well on this card with a ground and pound finish. Have fun on vacation
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MR219 | 37 |
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