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This season, I’ll be
making ATS bets on the NBA season based on a “2nd up” system. This system involves teams
that had a days rest & play their 2nd game back to back. In the 2014-15 season,
this is the ATS result when betting on 2nd game of back to back
after day/day’s rest if every line was -110. 287-264-15, 52.09%, -2.83 Not a good result. OK, let’s break this down a bit. We’ll take the results after team has either SU loss/rest/SU win or SU win/rest/SU win. 132-124-8, 51.56%, -3.88 OK, this is a worse result than the whole total. Let’s break this down further. The belief is that teams like continuity. Too many day’s rest, teams just won’t perform. For example, teams on 3 or more days rest with either the loss/rest/win or the win/rest/win end up like this. 3-11-2, 21.43%, -8.27 Now, we’ll take the 1-2 day’s rest with the SU loss/rest/SU win & the SU win/rest/SU win 129-113-6, 53.31%, +4.39 Good result, but we can make this better. Reduce this to just 1 days rest with the SU loss/rest/SU win & the SU win/rest/SU win. 104-81-5, 56.22, +13.64 This is looking better than the average ATS results. Break this down one more time to a 1 day’s rest SU loss/rest/SU win. 44-27-3, 61.97%, +13.04 The profit might be slightly down, but it’s better than NBA average home wins & the ROI is 11% higher. So, here’s what I’m thinking. We’ll label the bets as: (A) SU Loss/1 days
rest/SU win (B) SU Win/1 days rest/SU win (C) Bet against all other examples. That would give us an
extra 43-28-3 at 60.56% and a +11.13 profit. Thanks for reading. |
eylesy | 1 |
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Tuesday Play. Arizona $2.50 (+150) @ Boston.
4-2 @ +1.13 profit (win/days rest/win/0 days rest). Coyotes have had 1 crack at this system already this season, going down to Minnesota at home. Yes, the Coyotes haven't beaten Boston in 7 games, but the Bruins are on a 0-6 stretch after 3 or more days rest & are 0-4 at home. Going back to back in the league after a win this season is 8-7.
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eylesy | 5 |
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Late play. NY Rangers $1.67.
This play is 2-3 at -0.40. win/1 days rest/loss.
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eylesy | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by pinballwizard: "This type of play has gone 4-1." What type of play do you mean Eylesy? win/1 days rest/win. Base it on back to back games after day/days off. Hope this explanation helps. Thanks for reading.
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eylesy | 5 |
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G'day from Australia.
Long time to Covers, 1st time forum starter. I've been playing around with an idea for a system in NHL. So far, it's going 14-14 with a +2.17 & a 7.75 ROI. Playing Minnesota $2.28 @ Winnipeg. This type of play has gone 4-1 with a +2.13. Thank you.
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eylesy | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lukeamac:
Hey all, I see the -135 or +245 (or what ever price it is) around in posts everywhere. I figure that -135 means $1.35 ($100 x $1.35 = $35 profit for winning bet) and +245 means $2.45 ($100 x $2.45 = $145 profit). But when I then go and look at prices here, they don't match up. For instance, there is a post from Target 9 which has: Milw ML -113 But when I look at the price here, it's $1.88 for the ML. Really need some help here, it's doing my head in haha. Cheers lukeamac Hi, felllow Aussie. Try this. Say for the -135. Divide 135/235, giving you .574. Divide 1/.574, gives you $1.74. |
lukeamac | 15 |
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I'm on Sacramento +2.5
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rg3skins | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ATSwinner510: if i were you .. i wouldn't play buffalo again .. never play edmonton .. they win a game 1 out o 7 time ... you can do the odds on that .. bol man You were right, my friend.
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ATSwinner510 | 31 |
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Also taking Buffalo & Edmonton.
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HookEmHorns22 | 19 |
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Buffalo, Chicago, Edmonton NHL
Dallas -2.5 NBA
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ATSwinner510 | 31 |
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Taking Buffalo, Chicago, Edmonton.
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rg3skins | 6 |
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Best of luck. I'm taking Edmonton over Calgary tomorrow.
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spoonpower | 3 |
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G'day, Si1ly
Not sure if this interests you, but I change pythagoras by using winshare.
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si1ly | 97 |
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