This season, I’ll be
making ATS bets on the NBA season based on a “2nd up” system.
This system involves teams
that had a days rest & play their 2nd game back to back.
In the 2014-15 season,
this is the ATS result when betting on 2nd game of back to back
after day/day’s rest if every line was -110.
287-264-15, 52.09%, -2.83
Not a good result. OK, let’s break this down a bit. We’ll take the results after team has either SU loss/rest/SU win or SU win/rest/SU win.
132-124-8, 51.56%, -3.88
OK, this is a worse result than the whole total. Let’s break this down further. The belief is that teams like continuity. Too many day’s rest, teams just won’t perform. For example, teams on 3 or more days rest with either the loss/rest/win or the win/rest/win end up like this.
3-11-2, 21.43%, -8.27
Now, we’ll take the 1-2 day’s rest with the SU loss/rest/SU win & the SU win/rest/SU win
129-113-6, 53.31%, +4.39
Good result, but we can make this better. Reduce this to just 1 days rest with the SU loss/rest/SU win & the SU win/rest/SU win.
104-81-5, 56.22, +13.64
This is looking better than the average ATS results. Break this down one more time to a 1 day’s rest SU loss/rest/SU win.
44-27-3, 61.97%, +13.04
The profit might be slightly down, but it’s better than NBA average home wins & the ROI is 11% higher.
So, here’s what I’m thinking. We’ll label the bets as:
(A) SU Loss/1 days
rest/SU win
(B) SU Win/1 days rest/SU win
(C) Bet against all other examples. That would give us an
extra 43-28-3 at 60.56% and a +11.13 profit.
Thanks for reading.