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i'm not saying ignore previous match ups etc...but ya must take those with a grain of salt to an extent. the previous games that i look at seriously is the opponents with common strengths that the upcoming team has...such as a physical run game vs soid D lines, or solid defensive efforts vs good offenses. what is BYUs strength? Defense obviously & on the other side of the ball they depend on the running game. SDST has a solid D who got better as the season went on & a solid run game...both teams struggle to get consistant QB play. As most of us know & any scumbag lawyer would tell ya, u can find stats to back up any arguement or stats to argue someone elses lean. this is a tough game & if i had to make a pick right now i'd take the under. GL fellas |
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still undecided on this but must comment on some other posts..."DR DOG" BYU didnt play with Notre Dame....ND laid an egg like they did 3-4 times this year..BYU got way up for that game & ND didnt show up at all & didnt cover as predicted by every sharp known to man. same thing vs PITT, ND was very over-valued. BYU has a solid D & unimpressive offense. i'm having a tough time with this game but slightly leaning toward SDST. with regards to strength of schedule for any bowl game?! toss those stats/matchups out the window. even without a major coaching change during the weeks leading up to bowl games teams are very different from the last week of regular season. a good example so far this year was Nevada covering vs AZ. like i said...i'm undecided on this game & will read up & look deeper & look beyond regular season points per game & strength of schedule. "SHARK EPREZA" the under isnt a lock & i dont think anyone who bets the over is a "moron" like u posted. u do know the lines that are posted usually try to get action on both sides...so the over/under number released is targeting action on both sides...meaning they refine the number so people have to decide one way or the other...its not a number where smart people can say "omg its too high" the under is the bet...the numbers are almost always the perfect medium to force us into a decision. certain times/situations the number released is way out of whack because ya have a team like ND that the public will jump on no matter what the line is because they are one of americas sweathearts & knowing that the oddsmakers release a line on ND on monday morning that is waaaay to high. so basically if u didnt take pitt or byu vs ND but instead took ND u are some of the people that the oddsmakers bank on in those situations
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Tease Pitt with...... the steelers always get so much action & feedback...knowing that much of steeler nation is located outside of the state i never know which posts on this site are from "homers" because location of the poster means so little. some one said these 2 teams are headed in complete opposite directions...hah yer a homer! yes SD is terrible but pitt is not headed for another super bowl run. not saying pitt wont cover just saying pitt is a shell of their former self on both sides but especially Def...YES the DEF is ranked #1 overall but if yer a non-biased gambler & know yer football ya would know that some nfl ranks are very misleading. so many random odd stats that dont have direct impact on ATS go into the overall rank in the nfl. anyone but a homer can see that pitt isnt the dominant D it once was. especially since palamalu isnt healthy & every starting linebacker has lost a step or 2. since i've dumped my old school old man bookie & found a solid website off the grid its enabled me to really crush "exotics" 2 or 3 team teases in football only, but especially college. in MY OPINION this week PITT is a good tease team...they fall into a perfect situation in many ways to just win this game by 3 or 4 maybe even 6...they are desperate at 7-5, trailing in the hunt for home field & dealing with wild card status currently, like most of their games this year, (not impressive) i dont trust them to beat anyone by 2 scores, i have it at 7.5...SD is terrible & will be over hauled finally at the end of the season, i mean these guys actually had a press release to announce the GM & coach will be fired after waiting 2-3 years too long to do so.. morons! but having said all that norve turner & river are the exact type of idiots that will come out & show some pride & play with desperation when it doesnt matter anymore/its too late, just like every year for the last 3 or 4. it seems like pitt should roll because its a bad team coming from the west coast for a 1pm game, but i dont think its that simple, they wont beat pitt but they have the talent on offense with some decent wide recievers to keep this from being ugly & pitt cant score consistantly so its a perfect tease spot for me. I am TEASING PITT with CLEVELAND & they both go at 1:00 so it makes the tease less annoying. BOL fellas Duke |
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Fresno State Big! i respect yer research "sports predictor" but too many reasons why fresno will crush AF. the friend angle means nothing to me, in college football many coaches are friends its common in the college. AF was playing for a bowl bid at home last week vs a horrible team. did they show up? NO! they cost me some money, 0 pass attempts. sloppy game on both sides of the ball. what is AFs motivation this week? they cant advance any further than the bowl invite they locked up barely beating hawaii last week. fresno is playing for mac west title & a bowl bid coming off the bye. the offense is going to roll & AF cant score..this is a no brainer. fresno is my biggest bet of the year this week. LOAD UP FELLAS, BOL Duke |
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Air Force is the play. this is easy money. UH took a physical beating last week. they cant stop the run, & on a short week with a friday game. even shorter week considering its Hawaii. they get to play air force on national tv the week of veterans day. haha u kidding me? like i said load up fellas
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I couldnt agree more. I crushed that boise game saturday & i cant wait to start this week off with a nice win. UH will still be sore from the physical beating boise laid on them. a short week for UH on the road. this is a load up situation for me!
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2 sharps on 2 different sites took the over...thats the way i'm leaning. once i looked a little deeper fresnos D is close to nevadas. as we all know nevadas D is horrible. what do u guys think? if i win boise & georgia i was thinking load up on this over..BOL...thoughts? thanks Duke |
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havent put my money on either of these teams this year so my research/knowledge is limited. havent looked at injuries yet either, but what i have read is this. UCLA crushed a ranked team last week as we all know. Wash didnt show up last week & has a horrible record. UCLA is heading north to washington where it is 25 degrees for the night kick off. wash coach was quoted as saying his defense played "cowardly" last week. UCLA is playing USC next week. basically if i was asked to pick this game it would be washington. but i'm not touching this one :) just wanted to post some of the things i've read about this one. GL fellas, i got crushed so far this week but rebounding hopefully with georgia & boise. if i win those 2 i will be taking the nevada over at 10:30 eastern. BOL
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FSU...not sure if i'm getn down on this game yet. havent had a chance to research it but if i take anything its going to be FSU. coming off a bye they will be focused.they play maryland next week so they wont look past the overrated Vatech team. i realize VATECH didnt show up last week & are a different team at home but for 2 years they have been on my list of teams that i will never bet because coach beamer is a moron & he & the team are a bunch of mental midgets. FSU will force Logan to continue to make bone head decisions/turnovers. should be easy money
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USC+8.5 is the pick. my favorite handicapper & one of the best is vegas runner from vegas & pregame.com picked USC in his GAME OF THE YEAR! many reasons why this number is out of control but the main reason this number is where it is is due to public perception. I know that VR does this for a living & trust his inside info & evaluation. I'm going with USC who i honestly dont care for as a team but the sharps bet numbers & value not teams. lets go SC
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NIU -35 is the pick...UMASS was on the road last week @ Vandy & now they travel to NIU. these guys are so thin depth wise, so tired from getting smacked around every week & considering they have to travel back to back weeks they are completely spent. Lynch with his 40 - 50 carries/throws will have 7 TDs himself. The 2nd half is going to be a masacre because UMASS will come out of the locker room wishing they were anywhere but in illinois. The fact that NIU didnt play very well last week on the road helps too. they started off slow & sloppy in the first half then crushed the 2nd half. they always play well at home & will be up 35-0 at half! |
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BC -1 early "steam"!!!! hey fellas, i live in boston but like any decent gambler i dont take the BC eagles or the patriots because they are my home teams. BUT i did get an early "steam" pick from "vegas runner" on pregame.com...hes a pro handicapper nationally known, respected guy, an honest guy. i dont take all of his picks just cause he picked them but listen to his points & evaluate info on my own. he is a quantity/volume player i'm the exact opposite looking to get down on 4-7 college games a week & i bet on teams/players/physical mismatches/basically knowing teams offensive lines/run def/running QBs etc...vegas runner bets qauntity/many many games in all 4 major sports & bets for value or against the number no matter who is playing, he bets value not teams. he takes games that have a line that is 2 or 3 off from his power rankings that he evaluates b4 the sports books release a number. thats why ya can't just folow him blind, ya cant keep up with the volume that this type of pro capper gets down on. unfortunately this pick didnt have numbers backing it up or motivations (hense the "steam")some of us are not completely up to speed with all of the language but as i found out "early steam" as vegas runner called is basically "inside information" on one team or the other, it maybe an injury/start situation that obviously hasnt been made public, especially on monday or tuesday. it could be information on those variable situations like the QB for fresno state smoked meth with a hooker & got arrested during a raid on a shit motel in vegas the night b4 playing nevada. the staff bails out the QB & keeps it out of the new just long enough to play the game..."steam" could be anything.. this pick for BC came out monday -1 early steam....here are my 3 most played teams this year, playing sides or the o/u L-TECH - TEXAS A&M - ALABAMA....as u can imagine i crushed the L-tech vs A&M over 79 when they played 2 weeks ago. Alabama or the o/u in a bama game is 5-0 for me & remember whenever u need another team to help out in a teaser just take Alabama they are the most consistant & physically dominant team on the line in CFB. so thats the longest run on sentence in history. good luck fellas
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oops i misread the lie...the pack is away...still like the pack because away games arent as much of a bad as it is for most college teams because they go to school in vegas...a road trip gets them away from meth, hookers & the wiseguys :)
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ok guys raise your hand if you have seen louisville crush anyone! i'm undecided on this game but as of now i plan to wait for the line to move to 4 or 4.5 because the public will be all over louisville. having said that i'm leaning toward cinci. cinci has got no respect this year but has some talent. louisville is rarely impressive & doesnt have a big physical edge or explosive players. they just play solid, i think cinci matches up well vs louisville & i predict a 3 point game. louisville doesnt blow out any decent team & cinci has something to prove...not as a 2 &4 tem but as a 5-1 team. cinci is decent, there is no physical mismatch on the O-line or D-line, these 2 teams are not very far a part thats why the line is 3.5. like i said i dont love either side at the moment but dont jump on louisville because they are undefeated. thats silly. wait it out & maybe it will move to 4.5 because thats where the public money will go, especially on a friday night...CLEMSON was an easy bet but this is not
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hey micka! youre welcome. I won a nice fat chunk of change myself! its nice when things work out :)
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L-TECH is the pick...I dont understand what you guys mean when ya say LT isnt that good & houston isnt that bad? so it shouldnt be LT -3?? here are some reasons why i LOVE L-Tech today, houstons QB piland is not keenum, houston lost its top 5 WRs last year, houston lost its top 2 RBs last year. houston lost its coach last year. the houston team is unsettled on the o-line & coaching staff offensive coach got fired lastweek (they say he resigned) ya right.. the defense has always been suspect. L-tech was up 35-7 last year with 20 minutes left & the explosive houston team came back & won by 3. L-tech has its solid QB back along with all top WRs RBs (returning 16 starters on both sides of the ball) L-tech has revenge on its mind & can put up points at will against a weak rebuilding houston team. look at it this way if last year was a 3 point game & L-tech returns all of its skill players & many starters on both sides of the ball, & houston loses everyone who matters from coaching staff to stud QB all of its stud WRs & its 2 stud RBs, O-lineman among others on both sides of the ball. its an easy 2or 3 unit bet. i take my picks seriously with lots of research, these goofballs that just spit out a statement like "L-tech isnt that good & houston isnt that bad, simple as that" is annoying & just wrong. its not "as simple as that" its called a little research, how about ya read something, start with a teams athletic homepage ie "game notes" & start educating yourself before ya go broke.
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hey fellas. the line for me opened at 4.5 - 48.5 like most of us have seen. it went to 6 & 50 today. it is now back to 4.5 but the 50 is still there. among my various research sites is a site called "pregame.com" which posts free videos & few free picks. i dont base my picks on theirs unless i love it. here is what i've found. cinci has a new center QB & RB, the Def hasnt changed much, not great but decent in its league. pitt had 6 starters suspended last week & get 4 back this week. they have vets at QB RB & 8 returning letterman at WR, new head coach. new offensive & defensive coordinators from wisconsin , trust me i know sinseri sucks BUT as one of the "wise guys" on pregame pointed out "vegas runner" is the best pro on that site fyi, they pointed out that with all the time pitt had in training camp to get ready for youngstown & they come out & lay an egg!?? this can only mean one or 2 things, the new coach is a moron or pitt spent more time preparing for their 2nd game of the yea vs division foe which is cinci. their official pick was the under 48.5. i think its a good pick & i plan on riding it especially now that my site has it at 50. good luck fellas. either way expect pitt to at least play solid D & i never expect much from sunseri so even if i still had pitt at +6 i couldnt bet on them because i dont trust sunseri. going with the under (2 units)
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