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Cheers Lancer, someone with some insight. I certainly am not a douche canadian (though that did make me laugh), and have been watching the NFL for 32 years. This has been a laughable few years, where the incidents I mention above have become commonplace - haters, how do you say that a Pro Kicker kicks directly to Jackson with 10 seconds on the clock, or the Jags kicker does a 10 ft onside kick returned for a TD, and this is "just football"???? Come on, THINK you drones ... in no other sport do you see such laughable outcomes to games. MLB, NBA, NHL? No, you dont. And maybe watch NHL before you make your comments, it's a great sport ... and so was the NFL till recently ...
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canadiantrav | 26 |
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I am really starting to hate the NFL. This league is becoming a pathetic spectacle. Every week and every game there are absolute moronic plays happening, from jackass batting the ball down on the last play of the game into the endzone into the Titan's WR, to that arsewipe Manning running for 10 yds, sliding to be done but fumbling the football without being touched. Both killing the spread. It's so stupid. Last week that person kicker does a 10 foot, instead of 10 yard, onside kick, which kills the spread.. And how do you explain - and why do we want to - a useless Giants team getting 28 fucking points scored against them in the last 8 minutes of the game.
I could go on and on (and yes, admittedly all of those plays went against me), this league is pathetic. Spreads dont mean SHIT when all these 1-2 plays a game happen with such regularity. And the totally STUPID penalties that these ignorant gorillas take almost on every play. It's unwatchable.
I will take the NHL over this piece of crap any day of the week, when players essentially consistently make sports plays and games/spreads arent decided by some fucking numbnuts falling on his dick at the goalline.
Im fucking sick of this Sunday torture. Oh, and let's not forget these PUTRID fucking matchups that we are forced to watch on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights!! This is ridiculous, blowouts every goddamn game by halftime cos we got teams starting QBs that last played in an NCAA game. Im seriously ill of this fucking sport.
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canadiantrav | 26 |
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I posted something about this just below you on the Forum, if interested ... thought it was awesome ...
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jaygutty | 6 |
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Pittsburgh vs Capitals (Analysis - HBO) - no, the pens dont play the caps tomorrow, Im referring to tonite's premiere on HBO of the Pens/Caps in-depth. This show once again shows that the NHL is the best frickin' sports league in the world, and hockey is the coolest sport (yes, on ice ha ha). HBO's movie is 10*s out of 10 - no editing for language, cool footage and no BS behind the scene's footage. What a great time to do this too, with the Pens (as of yesterday) riding a 12 game win streak and Les Caps a 5 game losing streak - really shows a unique perspective of how winning gets you loose and happy; losing gets you tense and almost suicidal. Boudreau is a top tier coach, and how he handles the team is effin' cool to watch. Favourite lines from the movie include: #1 "Cookie is a douche!" (Marc-Andre talking about Matt Cooke) #2 "Let's get our asses out of our heads" (Boudreau behing the bench during the 7-0 throttling by the Rangers" #3 "Who the hell is gonna grab their sack and play some fuckin' hockey?" (Cap's assistant coach during the intermission). I loved HBO's movie, and I cant wait to see Part II. As a true hockey fan, it was so cool to get a behind-the-scenes look (f*ck, is Maxime Talbot every freakin' ugly?!), and I recommend this when it comes out again on replay this month. The Winter Classic, featuring these two teams, it's gonna be AWESOME! Cheers ... CanadianTrav
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canadiantrav | 3 |
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replied to
Expected Value & NHL Betting - why the books love you to gamble on big dogs or big faves
in NHL Betting Yes, please post :) Seriously, I never read it or seen it ... |
canadiantrav | 6 |
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created a topic
Expected Value & NHL Betting - why the books love you to gamble on big dogs or big faves
in NHL Betting Expected Value and NHL Betting - A Discussion **** Hi folks, some of you have asked for my take on why I shy away from big dogs paying +25 or more (and, equivalently, big faves costing you -250 or more. Today, I will stick with the argument against playing big dogs, and show you how expected values prove that in the long run they are nasty (in otherwords, don't get me wrong, if you see some big edge on a dog, play it, as yes, every dog gets its bone now and then (hence the expression)). **** Simply put, the expected value of a wager is what CanadianTrav can expect to win or lose if I play a certain type of wager (for example, taking home teams or dogs or ...) over time. Expected Value (EV) = [(probability of winning)(amount won per bet) - (probability of losing)(amount lost per bet)]. See, books LOVE for you to chase the big payouts (either big doggies or even worse, PARLAYS) cos the EV is negative. So, here's an example to prove the point: Consider the Isles taking on the Wings, where the Isles will pay you $2.30 on a $1 bet (+230 in other words) and the Wings will pay you $0.33 on a $1 bet (-330). Assume that the probability is 90% the super-talented Wings will win any time they play the shitely Isles, and of course 10% of the times the Isles will win (You can quibble about the percentages, but no way is it 50-50 (if they played 10 games, you'd think the Wings would win most of them). ****** The EV of taking the Wings is = 0.9*(0.33)-0.1*(1) = .20 and the EV with the Isles is -0.70 This means that, over time, you can expect to win 20 cents with your Wings bet (you get your $1 back) and LOSE 70 cents on your Isles (big dog) bet. No wonder the books ENTICE you with luscious odds, eh? :) In contrast, the EV of a coin flip game is what .... ? Answer is 0, or breakeven, which is what you would expect on a game that has the probability locked in at 50% (1/2 heads, 1/2 tails). Now, EV doesnt mean that in 10 coin flips, you could get 10 heads in a row, but over a 1000 flips, it will certainly tend to the aritmetic mean of 50-50 .... As for chasing big Faves, the EV is positive but so tiny that it doesnt pay off unless you are wagering 10K a game or something (and even then, you have to wager $10K a long time and win in order for it to pay off ..... hope this helps, and DEFINITELY, books like you to take the extremes, so stay in the MIDDLE (-140 to +140 and avoid parlays of anything greater than 2 (3 maybe ...) .... Cheers for reading! CanadianTrav |
canadiantrav | 6 |
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replied to
the ultimate shocking play...you will not hear from me any more if this one loses
in College Football
He lost $10K ... yikes
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clutchshot | 95 |
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Yep - listen, I dont mind a guy posting plays. I get it. But this guy starts posting this lame ass story on Monday how he has this 'big play brewing, but I cant give you the details yet'. Wtf. And then, after all this buildup, it's ..... DETROIT? Hell, they couldnt even get a TD against the Bills (until the last 19 seconds). It's just laughable. Post your plays, jam the attitude. I hate guys like that, sorry my rant for the week. LOVING KC getting ripped by Denver - I picked that one two ... but Houston's amazing loss to Jax?????? I see a "C'mon Man" segment coming up!!
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canadiantrav | 8 |
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He announces on Monday he has 'a play of the year forming', and goes on for about a paragraph of drivel about this - like he is Moses and we are all toads waiting for his pronouncement on the mountain. Then by Thurday he announces that this overwhelming voice he hears from God is that the Lions beat the Bills. What a joke. If you wanna post a pick, just post the damn thing without all the idiotic fanfare. It's really, really lame. (And no, I took the Bills) .... Forecasting Floyd, you put your pants on like anyone else (unless you are a tout, in which case you slither into them).
Sorry for the rant everyone, im just sick of poseurs ...
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canadiantrav | 8 |
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Oh puhhlllease dude! What are you, Moses? Just make the damn pick and get off your high-horse ... geeesus already. What's with all the preamble, you like guys kissing your ass? Sorry for the rant those reading, but this guy is silly. |
ForecastinFloyd | 409 |
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cheers HWT! FYI, I changed my picture from that obnoxious avatar to a picture of the stunningly beautiful northern lights that shimmer over my home on a lake in the Yukon Territory, Canada :) Nothing better than watching the flatscreen by the fire, baywindows, beer bottle (german) on my belly, golden retriever pups lying on top of my legs and overlooking the snowy mountains ... and WATCHING MY BELOVED SPORTS!! Peace my friends, and let's share some good cappin' ... |
canadiantrav | 4 |
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i concur, see my post
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Hollywoodturf | 21 |
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First, my GIANTS!!!! Wow, i predicted Giants in 5 but who foresaw this kind of explosion from the Big Guys? Okay, my early NHL picks: Tor at Boston - the money will be on Boston of course, but I like the Leaf's energy and of course Phil returning to the former Garden ... small wager on LeafNation Minny over Wash - Washy had a tough game against the Canes tonite, and with Minny's dominating PP right now, have to go with the home team Game of the night - two hot, great D teams, St Loo and Nashy - no pick Fla over Ottawa - Fla plays their bags off every night, and i still maintain despite their loss to Toronto that they are the most undervalued team. And sorry Sens fans, yes they lit the lamp the other nite but they are still a shitey team. So, Fla and Minny and a tiny wager on the Leafs ... "Buzzards & Dreadful Crows ..." Guided By Voices |
canadiantrav | 4 |
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wow, you believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny too, numbnuts? Yep, stupidest thing I've read here too. Keep up the good work, Sarah Palin uh I mean NBA Clitorator |
nba_calculator | 54 |
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LOL that's some good 1-liners :) Guess it was a dumb question, eh? im 62% ATS in the NFL through week 4, so im doing fine without em (Im picking in a big pool, where you have to pick every game mind you)
Cheers, |
canadiantrav | 19 |
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Okay, we've heard the term a million times "the sharps are on the under", but who the heck are these guys? Are they playing line moves? Waiting till game time? And why should we care when COVERS tells us what the sharps are doing? Thanks guys! |
canadiantrav | 19 |
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sorry, I just cant get excited about a THIRTEEN point teaser, especially with four games. Yes, it might keep you from losing money, but risking $100 to win $70 dollars is just lame. If you dont like risk, why even gamble?? If you do research and like your picks, why not a 6 pt teaser or better yet, moneyline it or even go with 3 game parlay. If you have confidence in your picks, get paid!! No offense to you that like these 13.5 pt teasers, whatever works eh? Peace,
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dl36 | 142 |
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"Ben Burns is on an INCREDIBLE 6-1 RUN!!" .... big effin whoop. Who hasnt been on a good run? So my question is, does any normal punter out here actually pay attention to, or more specifically, pay and bet based on what these guys tout?
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canadiantrav | 6 |
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Matchups/talent/talent differential and COACHING are way more important than most of what you posted ... focusing on motivation, revenge and what the public is doing is a sure recipe for disaster in my opinion ... thanks for posting the list though ... |
JulioFrazao | 59 |
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BODOG is a p.o.s organization, run by incompetent immigrants. Their policies suck a$$, and so does the product ... so many better sites out there ... i hate bodog
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dukerules01 | 36 |
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