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Washington's problem on the road is no one sets the tone - Walls plays when he wants to play. Washington is only good against good defensive teams when the play with extra intensity defensively. If Washington doesn't play good defense they can't get in transition and Wall gets exposed in the half court because of his poor shooting. When Washington plays with extra defensive intensity they can control tempo and get in the open court just as they did in game 2 and game 6 on the against Atlanta
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Digitalkarma | 29 |
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The reason Boston was the #1 seed - not the 2 seed, was because Lowry got hurt or Toronto finishes ahead of them, Washington didn't play well until mid-season changes to offense to center the offense on Beal and Walls, Cleveland rested starters down the stretch. Cleveland was the best team in east, then Washington (best record in east after all-star break), Toronto, and Boston. Boston was the fourth best team in the east. Boston is also much better built for the regular season than the playoffs because of youth and depth - although I still haven't figured out why Smart plays more than Rozier.
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Digitalkarma | 29 |
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Washington is the better team - the first half turned with the officials missed the obvious foul on Morris's dunk that created a 5 point swing and Boston took control and momentum going into the half.
Washington shot 2-19 from 3 point range going into the 4th quarter and still almost won. If you look at Boston's wins the series their are red flags next to all of them - Game 1 Morris injury - Game 2 lucky comeback Thomas scores 50 plus - Game 5 Bradley and Horford barely miss a shot - Game 6 near the game is a toss up with Washington shooting 12% from 3 point line. Washington will take momentum and confidence into game 7 and the 2 days off are huge for Washington with that garbage bench which once again gave up a big lead in the first half. Washington is the better team - as long as Washington shoots normally or better and no one on Boston has a career day Washington should win.
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Digitalkarma | 29 |
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1-0 after hitting with Houston in game 5. I bet Houston in game 5 because Houston is better team playing every other day - I did not bet Houston on the moneyline though because Houston has been horrible in close games and San Antonio has been at their best executing down the stretch.
The arguments. First, let's dispell this myth that the reason Houston lost game 5 was because Mike D'Antonio played a 7 man rotation and Houston ran out of gas. San Antonio played the exact same 7 man rotation - the only 2 players who played other than San Antonio's first 7 where Lee and Andersen - they played a combined 16 minutes and scored 6 points. Both teams played 7 man rotations and both teams ran out of gas late - that's playoff basketball. Houston's offense has been garbage when the tempo slows all year in the fourth quarter - this was not some new phenomenon that came out of nowhere. The key to game 6 will be if Houston can keep the tempo up in the 4th quarter by slowing the game and going deeper in the bench so Houston has fresh legs in the fourth to cover the 6.5 point spread. Houston was smart to play a 7 man rotation in game 5 in my opinion because San Antonio did the same thing and Houston is younger - obvously the betting considerations for game 5 were different as well since Houston bettors were getting 5.5 rather than laying 7.5 I think San Antonio knows this series will likely go 7 and will not risk injury or play their older starters such as Gasol and Ginobli extended minutes if Houston can build a double digit lead in the second half. I also think role players are more dependable at home so Houston will not have to rely on Harden as much and will be more comfortable going deeper in the bench. Houston couldn't trust young bench on the road, but at home I think the Dekker and Harrell can provide solid minutes.
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brkatz1234 | 2 |
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I like Houston at +5.5. As unpredictable as this series seems I think if we look at each game individually can see this series has actually been fairly predictable, and we can see where the value is in game 5.
Game 1 - San Antonio's plays the wrong lineup with David Lee starting who can't defend anyone and Houston play with more energy and shoots lights out. San Antonio also doesn't focus on making sure Leonard is Harden's primary defender and Harden torches San Antonio's decision to switch pick and rolls with no rim protector as Lee rather than Gasol is starting. Game 2 - Gasol enter the starting lineup and replaces David Lee - a humiliated Spurs team blows out a complacent Rockets team. San Antonio also changes pick and roll defense and makes sure Leonard is Harden's primary defender most of the game. Harden gets no calls. Game 3 - San Antonio comes out with extreme energy after losing Parker and is determined to prove that they can win without him. Houston shoots horribly from 3 point line. Game 4- Must win for Houston and San Antonio is complacent - Rockets shoot lights out and make 1 key adjustment - rather than driving and shooting contested mid-range jumpers as a response to the Spurs defensive game plan to take away 3s the Rockets are more patient and find the open shooters after breaking down the Spurs off the dribble. The Spurs also look tired - Leonard misses multiple free throws in the first half, well the Rockets a much younger team used to playing up tempo with better conditioning seem to have fresh legs. Game 5 - There is no question the value is on Houston's side at +5.5. The Spurs rely heavily on Leonard who seems to be worn down playing every other day well Harden and the Rocket spent the whole season playing up tempo and are much better conditioned. The Spurs are old and with Parker out lack depth - the only reliable bench player for the Spurs is Simmons - Ginobli is shooting 38% for the playoffs and Mills is really the starter not the backup looking at his minutes compared to Murray's. Houston brings 2 young strong scorers off the bench even with the Nene injury in Williams and Gordon and Houston is no longer taking contested mid-range shots after San Antonio runs them off the three point line. The Spurs were very competitive last year against a younger more athletic OKC team, but after game 4 the Spurs bench got exposed - Poppovich is a great head coach but he's a very average general manager - and this age and lack of depth of this roster will likely become an issue late in game 5.
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brkatz1234 | 3 |
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I think analysis lacking post - simply assuming line movement inviting you take Packers because -2.5 naive best. People may be arbitraging Bears +7.5 teasers, taking Green Bay money line arbitraging Bears +3, many things. Simply assuming the line movement means Bears right side very naive. I'm big Bears fan, but there is not reason bet Bears here, Green Bay's defense bad, but running game solid, Rodgers continually rips cover 2 Bears have.
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LeagueCapper | 173 |
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Notre Dame good team, but there's nothing resume suggests play with Alabama 60 minutes. BYU, Stanford, before Hogan was in, MSU, Michiga, solid teams, but not teams that top SEC. Oklahoma probably worst team playing BCS bowl. Notre Dame does running quarterback like Manziel gave Alabma trouble, but Golson isn't passer Manziel, and Alabama will no have extra time prepare experience playing running quarterback. A&M game horrible time Alabama emotional win LSU. I don't see blowout, but hard Notre Dame stay within 10, Alabama wear them down late game and Golson usually turns over several times. |
HookEmHorns22 | 211 |
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58-42 pretty even - most people betting Clippers/Lakers games. Houston winning record last year - playoffs eastern conference - I'd say solid - trade Martin/Budinger part because Parsons others playing better -
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CoverLane | 18 |
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Houston isn't Lakers, not even close - over/under games is 32.5 - low expectations. Asik underated tough player matchup well Monroe, Harden good team player, he wasn't exposed against Miami, he struggled against top 3 defensive team - like Duarant Westbrook. Detroit solid at home, but against mediocre competition, and usually dog, they are rarely favored against solid teams. Houston's coach McHale far better Frank, joke, Lin point guard. Detroit also not team last year, traded Gordon, got nothing back, clear cap room next year.
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CoverLane | 18 |
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First off, Denver was not public play, Saints were, Betting Drew Brees at +6 was very public, why do you think moneyline went from +240 to +180. As for this game, I like 49ers -7. At first look the 49ers appear public square play, Smith being overated, but Arizona has lot injuries offense, running back, tight end, offensive line.Smith struggled against good defenses, Seattle, Giants, but these are teams that forced 49ers pass. Arizona's run defense horrible, Docket not 100%. Smith solid when Gore gets going, and if Rams run over Arizona I think SF. |
LawsonJames | 144 |
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