I like Houston at +5.5. As unpredictable as this series seems I think if we look at each game individually can see this series has actually been fairly predictable, and we can see where the value is in game 5.
Game 1 - San Antonio's plays the wrong lineup with David Lee starting who can't defend anyone and Houston play with more energy and shoots lights out. San Antonio also doesn't focus on making sure Leonard is Harden's primary defender and Harden torches San Antonio's decision to switch pick and rolls with no rim protector as Lee rather than Gasol is starting.
Game 2 - Gasol enter the starting lineup and replaces David Lee - a humiliated Spurs team blows out a complacent Rockets team. San Antonio also changes pick and roll defense and makes sure Leonard is Harden's primary defender most of the game. Harden gets no calls.
Game 3 - San Antonio comes out with extreme energy after losing Parker and is determined to prove that they can win without him. Houston shoots horribly from 3 point line.
Game 4- Must win for Houston and San Antonio is complacent - Rockets shoot lights out and make 1 key adjustment - rather than driving and shooting contested mid-range jumpers as a response to the Spurs defensive game plan to take away 3s the Rockets are more patient and find the open shooters after breaking down the Spurs off the dribble. The Spurs also look tired - Leonard misses multiple free throws in the first half, well the Rockets a much younger team used to playing up tempo with better conditioning seem to have fresh legs.
Game 5 - There is no question the value is on Houston's side at +5.5. The Spurs rely heavily on Leonard who seems to be worn down playing every other day well Harden and the Rocket spent the whole season playing up tempo and are much better conditioned. The Spurs are old and with Parker out lack depth - the only reliable bench player for the Spurs is Simmons - Ginobli is shooting 38% for the playoffs and Mills is really the starter not the backup looking at his minutes compared to Murray's. Houston brings 2 young strong scorers off the bench even with the Nene injury in Williams and Gordon and Houston is no longer taking contested mid-range shots after San Antonio runs them off the three point line. The Spurs were very competitive last year against a younger more athletic OKC team, but after game 4 the Spurs bench got exposed - Poppovich is a great head coach but he's a very average general manager - and this age and lack of depth of this roster will likely become an issue late in game 5.
I like Houston at +5.5. As unpredictable as this series seems I think if we look at each game individually can see this series has actually been fairly predictable, and we can see where the value is in game 5.
Game 1 - San Antonio's plays the wrong lineup with David Lee starting who can't defend anyone and Houston play with more energy and shoots lights out. San Antonio also doesn't focus on making sure Leonard is Harden's primary defender and Harden torches San Antonio's decision to switch pick and rolls with no rim protector as Lee rather than Gasol is starting.
Game 2 - Gasol enter the starting lineup and replaces David Lee - a humiliated Spurs team blows out a complacent Rockets team. San Antonio also changes pick and roll defense and makes sure Leonard is Harden's primary defender most of the game. Harden gets no calls.
Game 3 - San Antonio comes out with extreme energy after losing Parker and is determined to prove that they can win without him. Houston shoots horribly from 3 point line.
Game 4- Must win for Houston and San Antonio is complacent - Rockets shoot lights out and make 1 key adjustment - rather than driving and shooting contested mid-range jumpers as a response to the Spurs defensive game plan to take away 3s the Rockets are more patient and find the open shooters after breaking down the Spurs off the dribble. The Spurs also look tired - Leonard misses multiple free throws in the first half, well the Rockets a much younger team used to playing up tempo with better conditioning seem to have fresh legs.
Game 5 - There is no question the value is on Houston's side at +5.5. The Spurs rely heavily on Leonard who seems to be worn down playing every other day well Harden and the Rocket spent the whole season playing up tempo and are much better conditioned. The Spurs are old and with Parker out lack depth - the only reliable bench player for the Spurs is Simmons - Ginobli is shooting 38% for the playoffs and Mills is really the starter not the backup looking at his minutes compared to Murray's. Houston brings 2 young strong scorers off the bench even with the Nene injury in Williams and Gordon and Houston is no longer taking contested mid-range shots after San Antonio runs them off the three point line. The Spurs were very competitive last year against a younger more athletic OKC team, but after game 4 the Spurs bench got exposed - Poppovich is a great head coach but he's a very average general manager - and this age and lack of depth of this roster will likely become an issue late in game 5.
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