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replied to
Syracuse (High +EV) was not an upset, only in the betting lines and rankings!
in College Basketball
I tried replying using mobile buy didn't work.
I will add to this more, but you have to consider subjective analysis (which for those not aware is more the eye than stats which is objective). Indiana to me was over-ranked (subjective)... their stats (objective) were equivalent as was their level of competition to syracuse... so that is the starting base. The math then is applied differently by everyone. I did basic stats PPG Offensive and Defensive... and added the fact they were facing 2-3 Zone with small chance for a second shot, and they don't follow much which is a lower scoring game as free throws add points without time going off and more importantly gives players a chance for a breathe, which allows them to play harder... when tired the mind also wants out, therefore going for the quickest score but not the most efficient... and against a zone, 2 tired teams favors zone for help, one-on-one you get beat it's a score. There is plenty of subjective then I consider what needs to be objective, if the math fits... then my objective outcome matches my subjective logic, therefore increasing my chances as the formula (never the same) seems to fit a high % time. If you are really interested, I use to play poker with Horabolous.. Bob Voulgaris who is considered the NBA's top handicapper. That is subjective, only because the very best are not known for many reasons. He is sharp, and uses metrics with his theories. I use to play high stakes NLH cash games with him until a few years ago he has been more tournaments. I can send you some very good information... especially why hoops is the best sport to bet. For me, boxing has been huge... Poker #1, NCAA MBB Conference play, MMA, NBA Totals, soccer (UEFA, World Cup, Euro Cup, Eng Premiere,... but more so countries, as they play differently, for instance... Italy - tactical low scoring team... I would bet ITALY 1-0 to win 400 (if they were fav) and a smaller bet (2-0) +750... prop bets that if Italy scored first the stats were 90% they would win, 62% no more scoring. That's Euro, World Cup, etc...) I can recommend a few handicap books that most people aren't aware of that are great. GL- Didn't mean confusion... but I can send you a PM if you friend me, and add files with documents you might really like and add to your handicapping. |
Rockin-Playz | 8 |
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replied to
Syracuse (High +EV) was not an upset, only in the betting lines and rankings!
in College Basketball
Indian scores nearly 9 pts more per game a season (78+), Cuse (70+).
Ind def 62ppg, Cuse 58. Math was 134+ for totals is what they made lines from. Cuse using 2-3 zone slows and reduces second chance shots, and indiana not being a fouling team reduces the score as no free points without the clock moving (Syracuse known for bad FT history). I could write the metrics, but anyone can write the math to fit the criteria after. It's the logic. You can make logic and the math can fit, but the reverse doesn't apply (wall street and gaming principles). Similar, you can handicap the right game 99% the time, but they only play once, so it's not a true principle but a science. Like a winner poker player never being in a pot That is +-100k... then he gets into 500k+- pot... huge risk without a mortal nuts! |
Rockin-Playz | 8 |
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replied to
Syracuse (High +EV) was not an upset, only in the betting lines and rankings!
in College Basketball
Any thoughts on Syracuse's nest match?
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Rockin-Playz | 8 |
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replied to
Syracuse (High +EV) was not an upset, only in the betting lines and rankings!
in College Basketball
Who else felt the Orange was 50-50 (or better), and a win had to be under the total?
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Rockin-Playz | 8 |
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created a topic
Syracuse (High +EV) was not an upset, only in the betting lines and rankings!
in College Basketball
The match-up was even. The fact Indiana was spotting 5.5 to start was a huge edge for Syracuse. A 5.5 spread calculates to a team winning 70% the time straight-out. Another factor was 135.5 total (higher in some sportsbooks).
If Syracuse was to win outright the total had to be under 90% of the time (IMO). So that gives you a Money Line Parlay Syracuse +220 & Under 135.5 and pays 5.1 to 1. A great +EV had you felt Syracuse was a coin flip game. Betting Syracuse plus 5.5 first caught my eye as I knew they would be dogs, and even in a close game that they lose, 5.5 is enough to cover the late fouls down by 2 or 3. When first asked, I said Syracuse with points. Reviewing the value, and that the 5.5 was not close to the +EV of the ML parlay, I changed wagers but felt for those who had local bookies, with no ML, Cuse + 5 or more was substantial. Congratulations to all that hit this game. I know I will get flack as this is a past-post, but I have nothing to gain by writing BS, and just wanted to know how many handicappers thought it was an even game?? Thanks again! |
Rockin-Playz | 8 |
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Boxer - The act, activity, or sport of fighting with the fists,
especially according to rules requiring the use of boxing gloves and
limiting legal blows to those striking above the waist and on the front or sides of the opponent.
Promoter - A boxing promoter is in charge of setting up and paying for everything involved in a boxing match and making sure all legal requirements are met at every step along the way. The promoter assumes all financial risk associated with the event, whether that means the promoter is paying for the event him- or herself or is securing a number of secondary investors to guarantee the costs are met. And when we talk about costs, we're talking about every single thing involved in a fighting event, from the plastic cups the beer is served in to the chairs for each corner of the ring to the ring itself, the round-number girl, the referee, the ticket sales, advertising, licenses and making sure the scales used for weigh-in are properly calibrated. A big-time promoter will often contract out a lot of the details, while a small-time promoter is probably standing in line at the state boxing commission's office to obtain the necessary licenses for a fight and is measuring the ring dimensions to make sure its up to code. But either way, the promoter is ultimately responsible if anything doesn't meet legal requirements or if something goes wrong and the ambulance isn't waiting right outside the venue with exactly two qualified paramedics. Manager - A boxing manager is responsible for overseeing many aspects of a professional boxer’s career. A boxer can choose to manage himself or herself, but often there may be too much responsibility for him or her to handle. There are typically many business aspects that go into making a boxer’s career successful, such as setting up matches with opponents, negotiating payments, and promoting the boxer to ensure a high turnout at matches. A boxing manager generally receives a percentage of a boxer’s earnings and therefore, will want a boxer to be as financially profitable as possible. Trainer (Chief Second) - (Chief Second: The person in command of a boxer's corner during a bout.) A boxing trainer is essential to the health and success of a professional or amateur boxer. Boxing trainers design and implement intense physical training regimens and diet plans to ensure that their boxers stay in peak physical condition. In addition, many boxing trainers act as managers and promoters, which involves acquiring the appropriate training equipment, setting up boxing matches, and managing finances and schedules. Amateur and professional boxers rely on their trainers to prepare them, physically and mentally, for strenuous boxing careers. A boxing trainer must be a good communicator and teacher, able to demonstrate techniques as well as verbally explain strategies. Trainers usually design specific training programs for their boxers, which often include long distance running, weightlifting, and sparring in a ring. It is also common for a trainer to study nutrition information in order to implement healthy diet plans for their trainees. Boxing trainers frequently assume managerial duties. Managers usually obtain liability insurance and create written contracts between themselves and their trainees. They reserve time at local boxing gyms and obtain quality training equipment for their boxers. A manager will often organize boxing matches for his or her fighter, carefully considering the ability levels of the boxer and the opponent to ensure a safe, fair fight. Assistant Managers - Secondary role to the Chief. Addition for all managers. Supervising training is a major responsibility of a manager. He or she has to make sure the boxer is in top physical condition in order to decide what type of matches to get the boxer involved in. A fine balance must be maintained in the manager’s selection of opponents to ensure the boxer is properly prepared for competition. At the start of a boxer’s career, his or her manager may be more concerned with him or her learning competition techniques and evolving as a fighter, rather than easily winning. A boxing manager may sign a boxer up to fight against seasoned boxers to gain experience for the long-term, even if it means losing some fights. Cutman - A cut man (or cutman) is the second who deals with cuts sustained by a boxer during a bout. His job is to stop any bleeding from the face or nose and also to reduce swelling around the eyes by applying cold pressure. Strength & Condition Coach - An advanced strength, speed and stamina expert who trains a boxer using many different types of training. Most exercises and the way they are executed are opposite to what was thought for decades. Instead of weights using high reps they learned that high-intensity low repetition power exercises produces all three objectives (strength, speed, & stamina). Nutritionalist (Dietitian) - A sports nutritionist helps create an eating plan for an athlete to ensure that individual is ingesting the proper amount of calories, nutrients and vitamins. Often the nutritionist will break this down into macronutrient ratios that will show the athlete how many calories or grams of carbohydrates, proteins and fats he requires per day. Physiotherapist - Physical therapy (or physiotherapy), often abbreviated PT, is a health care profession. Physical therapy is concerned with identifying and maximizing quality of life and movement potential within the spheres of promotion, prevention, diagnosis, treatment/intervention,and rehabilitation. This encompasses physical, psychological, emotional, and social well being. Sparring Partner(s) - A person (or people) who practices with a boxer during training. |
Rockin-Playz | 2 |
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I READ A FEW OTHER THREADS AND THE “KO IN NFL ABOUT OVERS” AND SEEN REQUEST TO FRIEND FOR A PM.I WENT TO YOUR PAGE AND REQUESTED YOU AS A FRIEND.I HAVENT POSTED IN AWHILE BUT I READ POSTS STILL.I ALSO READ THREADS WITH PICKS BUT YOU DON’T UPDATE YOUR BLOG RESULTS WHICH WOULD BE COOL AS I COULD SEE YOUR PLAY AND READ THE POST AFTER IF I HURRIED A WAGER WHILE ON THE FENCE.I DID LIKE MAYWEATHER TALK BACK TO MERCHANT.AFTER TYSON LOST TO DOUGLAS,MERCHANT MADE THE STATEMENT IN 1990 "MIKE TYSON WAS GETTING HIS BUTT-KICKED BY A 2ND RATE HEAVYWEIGHT.",ALTHOUGH TRUE, HE SHOWED NO CLASS SAYING SOMETHING HE WOULD NEVER SAY TO TYSON'S FACE,AND WHY A DISPARGING REMARK CALLING DOUGLAS 2ND RATE AFTER HE PULLED OFF AT THE TIME WHAT PEOPLE CALLED THE UNTHINKABLE.I THOUGH ANNOUNCERS HAD TO HAVE SOME CLASS AND THE ABILITY TO WORD THINGS WITH DIGNITY.I CAN'T BELIEVE PREVIOUS POSTS ABOUT PEOPLE THINKING HE IS A GREAT ANNOUNCER.HBO'S BEST ASSET IS HAROLD LEDERMAN.THAT MAN IS PRECISELY ACCURATE IN HIS SCORING AND ANALYSIS AS THE FIGHT GOES ON.HIS DAUGHTER IS A GREAT JUDGE.I WAS LIMITED IN VEGAS PROPS SO I JUST WENT BIG ON THE UNDER 11.5 ROUNDS.I BET UNDER ALSO BECAUSE ORTIZ HAD A HUGE WEIGHT GAIN AND THAT STRESSES THE BODY.MY FRIENDS DVR RECORDED IT SO WHEN WE GOT BACK TO HENDERSON WE WATCHED IT.I RESPECT AND LIKE EMANUEL STEWARD'S OPINION BUT WHEN HE SAID THAT HUGE WEIGHT GAIN WAS IRRELEVANT I WAS VERY SUPRISED.STEWARD KNOWN AS ONE OF THE BEST TRAINERS KNOWS THE GAME AND UNLESS YOU FEEL OVERPOWERED PREFIGHT THAT MUCH WEIGHT SO FAST SAYS IT IS TIME TO MOVE UP.
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ZOUK | 3 |
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SORRY FOR ALL CAPS,NETBOOK IS JACKED!INTERESTING THREAD ZOOK,YOU HAD ME THINKING.I WAS AT THE MGM ARENA TONIGHT WATCHING THE MAYWEATHER VS ORTIZ AND WE WERE LOCATED BEHIND THE CORNER WHERE THE HEADBUTT TOOK PLACE.I WAS SHOCKED A POINT WAS TAKEN AWAY IN A BIG FIGHT WITHOUT WARNING. SEATED ON THE FLOOR WE WERE 2/3S THE WAY BACK AND AT FIRST I THOUGHT THE HEADBUTT WAS ACCIDENTAL OR MINOR FROM THE ANGLE AS WE WERE DIRECTLY BEHIND FLOYD. IT HAPPENED SO FAST AND WITH ALL THE CHEERING IT WAS ALSO NEAR THE END OF THE ROUND, AND I DIDN'T HEAR THE 10 SECOND KNOCK.THEN FROM THE SAME ANGLE I COULD SEE ORTIZ LOOKING AT THE REF AND THEN I JUST SAW THE OVERHAND RIGHT AND ORTIZ WAS DOWN BUT HIS HEAD WAS UP AND I HAD NO IDEA WHAT WAS GOING ON. THE REPLAY ON THE SCREENS FIRST SHOWED THE HEADBUTT AND WOW, HE JUMPED UP IN THE AIR DIRECTLY WITH HIS HEAD, AND IF I WAS THE REF AND THERE WAS A BIGGER PENALTY I WOULD HAVE GIVEN IT TO ORTIZ. MAYWEATHER TOUCHED GLOVES IN THE CORNER, CAME BACK TO FIGHT,ORTIZ TRIED HUGGING AGAIN AND MAYWEATHER PUSHED HIS FOREARMS DOWN (BASICALLY SAYING LETS FIGHT) BUT GAVE HIM A HUG. VICTOR BACKED UP AND STOOD LOOKING AT THE REF WITH HIS HANDS DOWN AND FLOYD CLOCKED HIM. WATCHING THE REPLAY AND ORTIZ WAS CONSCIOUS BUT LOOKED TIRED I'M NOT SUPRISED IF HE WAS THINKING PLEASE REF "STOP THE FIGHT, DQ ME". HE WASN'T MAD OR ANYTHING.MAYWEATHER GAVE HIM A NICE WAY TO QUIT.IT’S BEEN NEARLY A DECADE SINCE I SAW FLOYD LIVE FROM LIGHTWEIGHT.
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ZOUK | 3 |
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YTD UNITS: +20.5 1. WIN +6.0 2. WIN +2.0 3. LOSS -0.5 4. WIN +13.0 |
Rockin-Playz | 3 |
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thats all he needed to be for me to win my OVERS! he beat Cotto with a hurt knee, they gave split dec to Cotto so he could fight Manny.... he's a big strong guy. just to slow for Manny
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Rockin-Playz | 5 |
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The overs I was slightly more concerned with Soto and possibly a cut in that fight. Clottey I lowered it to a 2 Unit only cause I hit the earlier fight. Not a move I recommend, but I played it safe after I banked 8 units, then 2 units more made me a positive up 10 Units. Also, you have to subtract the strange if PROP win parlay bet of -0.25 ! So, It ended up being + 9,75 UNITS!
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Rockin-Playz | 5 |
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I was fortunate and won the over 8.5 -190 Soto fight for 6 Units. I did a 2 Units Over 9.5 -130 on Clotttey, & I found many sportsbooks +650 range, but I was found one at + 735. I took the +735 for a half unit wager. I also, did a parlay if WIN (lol), which I didn't know they allowed parlaying high odds fight (or props)- It was Clottey +735, and 1 Open Spot (most likely a soccer game at +160 I like.. which will pay just under 21-1 odds (lol). For a $500 wager I stand to win $10,355 (not a bad entertainment, and also a wager I feel has high value)!
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Rockin-Playz | 5 |
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THANKS! I have like several hundred guide books comprised of sometimes other books, mixed articles, and mostly my own writings. I remember that was a basic guide, but I'm having problems pasting it. Gonna try another way. It is actually a very good book for beginners!
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Rockin-Playz | 3 |
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V The Money You Lose Making Incorrect Bets in Big-Bet Poker i) Many players will overbet the pot as a steal when they have missed their hands. If you are in a game with one or several these players and they have tried this move, you can make the same play as a value bet when you have a big hand. You’re trying to make it look like an overbet steal, but you actually have a hand that will most likely win if called. VI The Money You Lose With Poor Bluffing Habits i) Bluffing errors comes in three major categories: (1) Bluffing too much (a) Spotting and exploiting habitual bluffers is not difficult. They are always taking shots at the pot, always raising and re-raising with almost any two cards, and always betting when their opponent show any sign of weakness. These players often build stacks quickly, but by the end of the session, they’re usually broke. They don’t know when to stop bluffing, and since they overuse this poker weapon, they are typically losing players. (2) Not bluffing enough (3) Bluffing at the wrong times VII The Money You Lose Making Mechanical Errors i) Besides mucking winning hands, other such errors include: acting out of turn, making a motion that is interpreted as a check (or bet), clicking the wrong button (in online poker), making incorrect verbal declarations, intending to raise but throwing out a single, large-denomination chip, and misreading your hand. The thread that links all of these errors is a lack of situational awareness. |
Rockin-Playz | 1 |
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A general guideline I'm posting I thought might be of help to some new players. Nothing profound, but just general advice. I found it in an old file (not sure of the source of info) that can be a start for some newbies. Most my files I copy and paste are too long and won't paste, so I have to abbreviate and paste it piece by piece. I'll have time next week to edit some files and get some posts out.
I The Money You Lose Playing Too Many Hands i) Playing too loose is arguably the most common error in poker, and the one that will cost you the most money. It is also the first step in the “Theory of compounding errors.” ii) Every hand in poker is situation, and you need to pay careful attention to the action that has occurred before you act, as well as the action that might occur after. iii) We all love to see great starting hands, especially big pairs. But your hand is defined on the flop, not before it, and if you’ve completely missed the flop, it’s time to start looking for reasons to fold. II The Money You Lose By Not Taking The Initiative i) Remember that most of the time; the flop isn’t going to help you. And in the same vein, it is not going to help your lone opponent either. ii) Using aggression and taking initiative are two very important weapons. III The Money You Lose By Not Recognizing You Are Beat i) Frustration can cause us to do things we know are wrong. IV The Money You Lose Not Taking the Other Players Into Consideration i) You must watch your opponents’ actions and take notes on your opponents (revising them when necessary). If you practice second level thinking – always considering the actions of your opponents – you will be a step ahead. |
Rockin-Playz | 3 |
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Good post Dantos. Nice thing about online is you can play anytime and learn the basics (mathematics, poker theory, etc), play as much as you want, for any amount. Very true many players that play online often and go to live (for the first few months experience) do tend to often not adjust well. Especially multi-tablers, who aren't patient (being use to getting 300 hands an hour vs 25), which is a major essential of poker (patience, position, pick your spots {when you start to play to win consistently}). It's been said before, you don't have to be the best at the table to be a winner, just better than a few that make the game profitable for you (I think Caro quoted "I'd rather be a decent player at a game with bad players than be the best player in the world against the second, third, fourth (etc) best players in a game with me). Sklansky is more advanced writing, but accurate and Poker Theory is considered the Bible of Poker by many. Before him you had SuperSystem and Mike Caro for consistency with mathematics alone, not including bad theory and advice from previous authors. Now, everyone almost clearly writes 80% of the same stuff regarding a specific game. Good Luck!
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kemalettin | 13 |
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There is no simple formula. I try and work with each person separately, because everyone is at a different level and everyone is in a different position. I can receommend the best general or specific game books, DVD, etc... my material is very in-depth and more to overwhelm the reader than help him if he is not on that level. I'm glad to have gotten so many responses though through PM's (and there is no hidden cost, etc...- what you ask for, if I have any insight on it, I will give it.) I started on RGP (recpoker now) when over 10 years ago and 2+2. RGP use to be the best source for information, but no it's 90% not poker relevant or junk. 2+2 is still excellent, although they moderate their forum (which some people don't like ... to each is own).
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Rockin-Playz | 16 |
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I try and steer people in the right direction, not my direction. So, either way, I'm glad to still be getting responses and hope it helps. The one thing I also don't advocate, although I am, is becoming a professional poker player. I know many young college kids dropping out, riding the high wave, then when things run bad and you haven't managed your bankroll and lifestyle, it SUCKS! Do it as a hobby and take your time with it!
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Rockin-Playz | 5 |
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Buy and read "Theory of Poker" by Sklansky. Then decide which game you want to start with. Either NL hold'em, limit holdem, tournaments... etc. I say start with basics and something you can play alot online with. Choose a game and then I'll email you (or post) great books or DVD's and any material that will help you start (I've read maybe 80% of all poker books published, and maybe the same for DVDs.. many DVDs suck, some are excellent). The best way is to understand basic poker theory, and play and learn as you go, and enjoy.
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kemalettin | 13 |
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Funny though, I have had several Private Messages, and have transferred info to help other players. No scam here, just willing to help. If help is not wanted, they don't need to PM me.
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Rockin-Playz | 5 |
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