The match-up was even. The fact Indiana was spotting 5.5 to start was a huge edge for Syracuse. A 5.5 spread calculates to a team winning 70% the time straight-out. Another factor was 135.5 total (higher in some sportsbooks). If Syracuse was to win outright the total had to be under 90% of the time (IMO). So that gives you a Money Line Parlay Syracuse +220 & Under 135.5 and pays 5.1 to 1. A great +EV had you felt Syracuse was a coin flip game. Betting Syracuse plus 5.5 first caught my eye as I knew they would be dogs, and even in a close game that they lose, 5.5 is enough to cover the late fouls down by 2 or 3. When first asked, I said Syracuse with points. Reviewing the value, and that the 5.5 was not close to the +EV of the ML parlay, I changed wagers but felt for those who had local bookies, with no ML, Cuse + 5 or more was substantial. Congratulations to all that hit this game. I know I will get flack as this is a past-post, but I have nothing to gain by writing BS, and just wanted to know how many handicappers thought it was an even game?? Thanks again!
The match-up was even. The fact Indiana was spotting 5.5 to start was a huge edge for Syracuse. A 5.5 spread calculates to a team winning 70% the time straight-out. Another factor was 135.5 total (higher in some sportsbooks). If Syracuse was to win outright the total had to be under 90% of the time (IMO). So that gives you a Money Line Parlay Syracuse +220 & Under 135.5 and pays 5.1 to 1. A great +EV had you felt Syracuse was a coin flip game. Betting Syracuse plus 5.5 first caught my eye as I knew they would be dogs, and even in a close game that they lose, 5.5 is enough to cover the late fouls down by 2 or 3. When first asked, I said Syracuse with points. Reviewing the value, and that the 5.5 was not close to the +EV of the ML parlay, I changed wagers but felt for those who had local bookies, with no ML, Cuse + 5 or more was substantial. Congratulations to all that hit this game. I know I will get flack as this is a past-post, but I have nothing to gain by writing BS, and just wanted to know how many handicappers thought it was an even game?? Thanks again!
Indian scores nearly 9 pts more per game a season (78+), Cuse (70+). Ind def 62ppg, Cuse 58. Math was 134+ for totals is what they made lines from. Cuse using 2-3 zone slows and reduces second chance shots, and indiana not being a fouling team reduces the score as no free points without the clock moving (Syracuse known for bad FT history). I could write the metrics, but anyone can write the math to fit the criteria after. It's the logic. You can make logic and the math can fit, but the reverse doesn't apply (wall street and gaming principles). Similar, you can handicap the right game 99% the time, but they only play once, so it's not a true principle but a science. Like a winner poker player never being in a pot That is +-100k... then he gets into 500k+- pot... huge risk without a mortal nuts!
Indian scores nearly 9 pts more per game a season (78+), Cuse (70+). Ind def 62ppg, Cuse 58. Math was 134+ for totals is what they made lines from. Cuse using 2-3 zone slows and reduces second chance shots, and indiana not being a fouling team reduces the score as no free points without the clock moving (Syracuse known for bad FT history). I could write the metrics, but anyone can write the math to fit the criteria after. It's the logic. You can make logic and the math can fit, but the reverse doesn't apply (wall street and gaming principles). Similar, you can handicap the right game 99% the time, but they only play once, so it's not a true principle but a science. Like a winner poker player never being in a pot That is +-100k... then he gets into 500k+- pot... huge risk without a mortal nuts!
Indian scores nearly 9 pts more per game a season (78+), Cuse (70+). Ind def 62ppg, Cuse 58. Math was 134+ for totals is what they made lines from. Cuse using 2-3 zone slows and reduces second chance shots, and indiana not being a fouling team reduces the score as no free points without the clock moving (Syracuse known for bad FT history). I could write the metrics, but anyone can write the math to fit the criteria after. It's the logic. You can make logic and the math can fit, but the reverse doesn't apply (wall street and gaming principles). Similar, you can handicap the right game 99% the time, but they only play once, so it's not a true principle but a science. Like a winner poker player never being in a pot That is +-100k... then he gets into 500k+- pot... huge risk without a mortal nuts!
I don't mind if you do. I'm still not understanding where you are coming from and what you're trying to say. I would really be interested in seeing the math side of this.
Please explain it to me like I have know nothing about math also(because I'm not very good at math anyway).
Indian scores nearly 9 pts more per game a season (78+), Cuse (70+). Ind def 62ppg, Cuse 58. Math was 134+ for totals is what they made lines from. Cuse using 2-3 zone slows and reduces second chance shots, and indiana not being a fouling team reduces the score as no free points without the clock moving (Syracuse known for bad FT history). I could write the metrics, but anyone can write the math to fit the criteria after. It's the logic. You can make logic and the math can fit, but the reverse doesn't apply (wall street and gaming principles). Similar, you can handicap the right game 99% the time, but they only play once, so it's not a true principle but a science. Like a winner poker player never being in a pot That is +-100k... then he gets into 500k+- pot... huge risk without a mortal nuts!
I don't mind if you do. I'm still not understanding where you are coming from and what you're trying to say. I would really be interested in seeing the math side of this.
Please explain it to me like I have know nothing about math also(because I'm not very good at math anyway).
I tried replying using mobile buy didn't work. I will add to this more, but you have to consider subjective analysis (which for those not aware is more the eye than stats which is objective). Indiana to me was over-ranked (subjective)... their stats (objective) were equivalent as was their level of competition to syracuse... so that is the starting base. The math then is applied differently by everyone. I did basic stats PPG Offensive and Defensive... and added the fact they were facing 2-3 Zone with small chance for a second shot, and they don't follow much which is a lower scoring game as free throws add points without time going off and more importantly gives players a chance for a breathe, which allows them to play harder... when tired the mind also wants out, therefore going for the quickest score but not the most efficient... and against a zone, 2 tired teams favors zone for help, one-on-one you get beat it's a score. There is plenty of subjective then I consider what needs to be objective, if the math fits... then my objective outcome matches my subjective logic, therefore increasing my chances as the formula (never the same) seems to fit a high % time. If you are really interested, I use to play poker with Horabolous.. Bob Voulgaris who is considered the NBA's top handicapper. That is subjective, only because the very best are not known for many reasons. He is sharp, and uses metrics with his theories. I use to play high stakes NLH cash games with him until a few years ago he has been more tournaments. I can send you some very good information... especially why hoops is the best sport to bet. For me, boxing has been huge... Poker #1, NCAA MBB Conference play, MMA, NBA Totals, soccer (UEFA, World Cup, Euro Cup, Eng Premiere,... but more so countries, as they play differently, for instance... Italy - tactical low scoring team... I would bet ITALY 1-0 to win 400 (if they were fav) and a smaller bet (2-0) +750... prop bets that if Italy scored first the stats were 90% they would win, 62% no more scoring. That's Euro, World Cup, etc...)
I can recommend a few handicap books that most people aren't aware of that are great. GL- Didn't mean confusion... but I can send you a PM if you friend me, and add files with documents you might really like and add to your handicapping.
I tried replying using mobile buy didn't work. I will add to this more, but you have to consider subjective analysis (which for those not aware is more the eye than stats which is objective). Indiana to me was over-ranked (subjective)... their stats (objective) were equivalent as was their level of competition to syracuse... so that is the starting base. The math then is applied differently by everyone. I did basic stats PPG Offensive and Defensive... and added the fact they were facing 2-3 Zone with small chance for a second shot, and they don't follow much which is a lower scoring game as free throws add points without time going off and more importantly gives players a chance for a breathe, which allows them to play harder... when tired the mind also wants out, therefore going for the quickest score but not the most efficient... and against a zone, 2 tired teams favors zone for help, one-on-one you get beat it's a score. There is plenty of subjective then I consider what needs to be objective, if the math fits... then my objective outcome matches my subjective logic, therefore increasing my chances as the formula (never the same) seems to fit a high % time. If you are really interested, I use to play poker with Horabolous.. Bob Voulgaris who is considered the NBA's top handicapper. That is subjective, only because the very best are not known for many reasons. He is sharp, and uses metrics with his theories. I use to play high stakes NLH cash games with him until a few years ago he has been more tournaments. I can send you some very good information... especially why hoops is the best sport to bet. For me, boxing has been huge... Poker #1, NCAA MBB Conference play, MMA, NBA Totals, soccer (UEFA, World Cup, Euro Cup, Eng Premiere,... but more so countries, as they play differently, for instance... Italy - tactical low scoring team... I would bet ITALY 1-0 to win 400 (if they were fav) and a smaller bet (2-0) +750... prop bets that if Italy scored first the stats were 90% they would win, 62% no more scoring. That's Euro, World Cup, etc...)
I can recommend a few handicap books that most people aren't aware of that are great. GL- Didn't mean confusion... but I can send you a PM if you friend me, and add files with documents you might really like and add to your handicapping.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.