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Love the picture!
Quote Originally Posted by roundrock9:
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jdnmoney | 62 |
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Thanks for the write-ups.
My thoughts on your games. Agree with USC, took them -18.5 on openers. Took Fresno +10 and +11. Too many points. RB Rouse is a load. Took Hawaii -6. Revenge game and Colorado breaking in new staff Took OL Miss +3. BYU the better team, but in game #1 of new independent status they face the SEC warm, humid weather and at 0-0, OL Miss is looking to make amends for poor '10 season. Quote Originally Posted by GoCougs:
So this year I'm going to bet all the Pac-12 games since I follow the league the closest and add a few more games each week. Going to bet 10 games a week and I will do brief write ups on each game. Pac-12 UCLA at Houston -3.5 - I'm sorry but I'm not a believer in Rick Neweasel and UCLA. They still haven't found a QB they can rely on and they lost a lot of talent on defense. UCLA beat Houston in Pasedena last year but Houston qb Case Keenum got hurt in that game. With Keenum returning the Cougars should have a great offense. Since this is a revenge game I think Houston will be ready to play. Pick - Houston -3.5 Minnesota at USC -21 - I don't think Lane Kiffin is a good coach but the dude can recruit. I think USC is still a little suspect on defense but the offense should be real good with qb Matt Barkley returning. Minnesota lost its QB and they are going to be pretty bad this year. Pick - USC -21 San Jose St at Stanford -27 - Stanford lost a lot of talent last year, but they still have the top QB in the country in Andrew Luck. Harbaugh did a great job recruiting so I'm thinking they will plug in the new guys without much of a drop off. Having a new coach is always a question mark but I still think Stanford will cover this spread against a much inferior opponent. Pick - Stanford -27 Fresno St at California -10 - I originally liked Fresno is this game, but I realized they lost a lot of players from last year's team. Pat Hill does a great job there, but when you don't get top talent you are going to have occasional down years which I think will be the case for Fresno this year. Cal had a great defense last year and I think that will continue this season. Their offense last year was horrible but they should get a huge boost with the Buffalo qb Maynard transferring in. He put up huge numbers for Turner Gill before Gill took the Kansas job. Pick - California -10 Oregon -1 vs LSU in Dallas - Seems like both programs are going through some adversity. Cliff Harris is suspended for this game for reckless driving and pot smoking and Oregon has other issues with potential NCAA violations. And then LSU has a qb who likes to get in bar fights. This is a tough game to pick because I think both teams will be very good. Oregon has the better offense and LSU has the better defense. This is a tough game to pick but I gotta go with Oregon because I think Chip Kelly is a better coach than Les Miles. Pick - Oregon -1 Colorado at Hawaii -6 - Colorado isn't a very good team, but I think Hawaii could take a step back this year. Moniz is a stud at QB and he is back but Hawaii lost a lot of talent last year especially on the offensive end starting with their top receiver Salas. I think Hawaii will pull out a win since they play well on the island but I actually expect this to be a pretty close game. Pick - Colorado +6 Other Games South Florida at Notre Dame -10 - I think Notre Dame is going to be very good this year. Brian Kelly is turning things around there. They have a lot of starters returning and should be solid on both sides of the ball. USF will have a good defense like it normally does, but offense will continue to be an issue. Pick - Notre Dame -10 BYU -3 at Mississippi - I think Houston Nutt is on his way out at Ole Miss. I know they're in the SEC and everyone has a love fest with the SEC, but Ole Miss just isn't a very good team. BYU struggled last year, but keep in mind qb Jake Heaps was a true frosh. The guy is a stud and BYU is a much deeper team than a year ago. The offense should be a top 20 type offense. Pick - BYU -3 Western Michigan at Michigan -14 - Ok so I know Michigan has a new coach and the players have to learn a new system, but really only a 2 touchdown favorite over Western? It's not Central Michigan. But anyway qb Denard Robinson is back so the Michigan offense should be very explosive. Yes the defense is a question mark but I would be surprised if the Wolverines don't cover this number. Pick - Michigan -14 Boise State -3 vs Georgia in Atlanta - I've heard the doubters. Boise is in a weak league. They don't get top 25 recruiting classes. The SEC is the best league yada yada yada. All Boise does is win. I don't care what league they're in. They can compete and beat anyone in the country. And the fact of the matter is that Georgia just isn't that good. They have a lot of question marks especially offensively. Boise is just a much better team on both sides of the ball. Pick - Boise State -3
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GoCougs | 16 |
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His plays come out Thursday, 2:30 PM Thursday, west coast time. Be careful. A good college 'capper, but not much for power numbers and loses value on many of his picks. Career has had some good years, but look at the write-ups before following blindly, as their are occasional flaws in his reasoning.
Good luck this year. |
ccbulldog | 6 |
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Bad spot for Syracuse. WaKe now +7 in Vegas. Good luck with all your picks.
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snowjocky | 38 |
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Opening line tells you all yu need to know. Bad spot for Temple. Good luck!
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elz24 | 21 |
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replied to
HELP with name of sportsbook that will take a bet on MONTANA V. TENNESSEE....Thanks guys!
in College Football
Underestimating the youth of Tennessee. They win, but something like 35-21, 34-24 or so.
Good luck. |
FlowLuckyFree | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lindetrain: Ahh, football season is finally upon us. Had an incredibly successful year last fall, bringing in a little over 34 units and hitting at a 64% clip. Although very unlikely, hoping for more of the same this time around. Put in a ton of work this summer, and plan on contributing much more around here during the season, posting plays and sharing my insight whenever possible. I'm one of those guys who stalks in an attempt to hit weak opening numbers. Because of this, I'll probably post some lines throughout the year that aren't widely available. Feel free to think I'm falsifying my numbers - but what I post is what I have. Here's what I've got for the opening week so far: Baylor +10 Northwestern +7.5 Utah State +28 Notre Dame -8.5 Army +13 Colorado +8.5 Texas A&M -13 All 1 unit GL to everyone this season... Good luck to you this year. I did not get quite the lines you did (have different outs probably), but like you I love to get the openers. As posted in another thread, here is what I have. I think Army has a great shot. My plays thus far: USC -18 vs. Minny Colo St -3/-125 at New Mexico Army +12.5 at NIU #2 play Bay +9.5 vs. TCU (Fri) #1 play NW +7/-120 at BC (Thurs) Added plays this evening: Fresno +10.5 "at" Cal Oklahoma -20.5 vs. Tulsa Hawaii -6 vs. Colo #3 play Waiting on others Good luck |
lindetrain | 51 |
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You may very well be right about ULM. I opened them at 56 last year and despite the wins you noted, they closed at 52.5. Moving them up to 58 seems fair right now. I think they can exceed that #, but I am not a fan of Todd Berry as a HC.
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MrRonM | 3 |
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In response to a poster asking for these #'s I am gladly putting them up. While I don't spend as much time on the MAC and Sun Belt as with the other conferences, I do spend time honing in on a Power # for each team.
NOTES: I posted Nevada, Hawaii and Fresno elsewhere but will post them again here. This is a weak conference and I will drop them next year. In the MAC, Toledo has the best team on paper, but like ASU and A&M, now face the challenge of living up to expectations. NIU opens at 70, which seems high, but they closed at 80 last year so it's a 10 point drop. Also, Ohio has the easiest schedule I may have ever seen. The ratings for their opponents makes their schedule a 58.9. All other MAC teams have at least a 62.4 strength of schedule. I'm keeping an eye on Kent St. I think the coaching change may help. In the Sun Belt, one of the Louisiana schools (Monroe or Laff) may surprise this year. Someone usually pops up to give Troy a challenge, who has lost a game each year as a -8 to -16 favorite. Enjoy! WAC: Nevada 79 Hawaii 76 Fresno 73 L Tech 66 Utah St 63 Idaho 62 SJ St 54 (sleeper potential) New Mexico St 49 MAC Toledo 71 NIU 70 Temple 68, but I don't like new staff Ohio U 68 W Mich 67 Kent 65 Miami Ohio 65 C Mich 64 Ball St 57 (I'll miss Stan Parrish, one of worst HC's ever) B Green 55 Buffalo 52 Akron 49 E. Mich 48 Sun Belt Troy 70 FIU 67 MTSU 63 Ark St 62 UL Laff 58 No Texas 58 (interesting coaching change) UL Monroe 58 FAU 55 W KY 55 |
MrRonM | 3 |
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I think Army has a great shot. My plays thus far:
USC -18 vs. Minny Colo St -3/-125 at New Mexico Army +12.5 at NIU #2 play Bay +9.5 vs. TCU (Fri) #1 play NW +7/-120 at BC (Thurs) Added plays this evening: Fresno +10.5 "at" Cal Oklahoma -20.5 vs. Tulsa Hawaii -6 vs. Colo #3 play Waiting on others |
TRoe15 | 19 |
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Meanwhile, back to the original purpose of this thread. Please keep in mind that Tennessee is a very young team in '11. Please push this line to +21.
I think Tennessee wins, but by 10-14 points, and I will have the dog. |
FlowLuckyFree | 90 |
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Good comments. One thing about Mississippi State. This game is a warm up for them. Weeks 2 and 3 are early SEC revenge matchups vs. LSU and Auburn. You know the staff is putting in some time working on those game plans, and not 100% focused on Memphis.
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jdnmoney | 62 |
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For me, I have 30 years of data for the major teams, and 10 years for the MAC, and 8 for the Sun Belt. I have the opening and closing numbers from each year.
It's a combination of things, such as returning talent to each area of offense, defense and kicking game, schedule analysis (byes, trap games, early road games), coaching changes, including OC and DC, etc. I get a feel for the proper # and tweak it around this time. You are right, it is crazy, but I follow and write about football and march madness only, so I do have time away from all this. There is good news. I am dropping the WAC next year (dead conference), and may drop the Sun Belt as well, depending on performance. |
lindetrain | 14 |
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Yes, thanks. I did anticipate that. ND could be a top 10 team, but I need to see fewer QB turnovers first.
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MrRonM | 5 |
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Thank you. New Mexico closed as the lowest Power # in the NCAA in '10 so I am hesitant to move them up, but they have an unusually high number of JUCO's who might help now, so maybe things will work out.
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MrRonM | 8 |
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Here's a better look:
ND 85 BYU 80 Navy 72 Nevada 79 Hawaii 76 Fresno 73 |
MrRonM | 5 |
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Here's a better look
Boise 91 TCU 84.5 AF 80 SD St 72 Colo St 63 Wyoming 61 UNLV 56 New Mexico 51 |
MrRonM | 8 |
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Here's a better copy
Okla 96 A&M 89 OK St 87 Missouri 84 Texas 84 TT 81 Baylor 79 K St 76 Iowa St 70 Kansas 63 |
lindetrain | 14 |
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Here are the new #'s (with teams)
Oregon 92 Stan 87 USC 85 ASU 83 Arizona 79 Utah 79 OSU 78 Cal 78 UCLA 77 Wash 76 Colo 68 WSU 66 |
lindetrain | 25 |
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I am sorry the #'s did not copy well here. Here are my changes.
S Car now 87 Auburn now 80 OL Miss now 76 Tennessee now 77 |
lindetrain | 26 |
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