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I'll start. I take the cowboys and over 47.5. After 3 quarters, team person is up 31-15. Then ZERO points in the 4th quarter. A fool and his money are soon parted. JFC.
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Howard_Jughes | 1 |
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1. Cincinnati - 6 at St Louis St Louis has managed to score more than 13 points in 3 games: hosting division rival arizona (20), at the giants during the giants swoon (16) and the signature win against the saints (31). St Louis is in all likelihood gonna score either 13 points or 7 points. Cincinnati has scored less than 20 points on four occasions: hosting SF week 1 (8), hosting division rival pitt (17), at pitt (7), and last week hosting houston (19). Cincinnati is in all likelihood going to score either 23 points or 27 points (they scored 30 and 34 in a couple games but we dont need that to happen here). Cincinnati is 7-6 and very much alive for the 6 seed. The tough losses recently have to be a little damaging to the psyche, but you have to ask yourself if you believe these men (Marvin, Dalton, etc.) are going to fold or bounce back against what looks like the worst team in the league right now (I say this with the belief that if St Louis played Indy today, Indy would win s/u). Intangible Edge: Cincinnati. Score Scenarios: 23-17, 23-13, 27-17, 27-13 Wost case spread: 7 Likely spread: 10 or more (27-13 is my cap result) 2. AZ ML hosting Cleveland Cleveland has scored more than 17 points twice: at the colts (27) and at division rival Cincinnati (20). Cleveland will be scoring either 13 points or 17 points. Arizona has scored less than 17 on 3 occasions (all road games): at division rival seattle (10), at vikings (10), at division rival SF (7). Arizona will be scoring either 21 or 28 points. Now Arizona has nothing to play for, but I believe the coaching staff and the players have demonstrated they are committed to playing football on a weekly basis, as opposed to the team with the runningback who is pining away for a new contract, the quarterback who's dad wants to sue for concussion damages, and the coaching staff who has no qualms about putting players in harm's way in a feeble attempt to save their waning careers. Intangible Edge: Arizona Score Scenarios: 21-17, 21-13, 28-17, 28-13 Worst case spread: 4 points versus 6 current line (play the moneyline). Likely spread: 8 or more (21-13 is my cap result). BOL all.
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Howard_Jughes | 4 |
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Tebow had about 200 yards on 15 attempts with 2 tds and very little rush production while mcgahee was about 100 yards and 1 td versus the vikings. this is probably how belichick will want the game to play out...minimize the option based rush yards, dont sweat the traditional rush yards. conversely, fox should go with man coverage and front four pressure with safety focus on gronk. i would allow welker to catch passes underneath and green ellis to get limited yards all day long...what you want to avoid is getting beat and failing to tackle. game will be close, but i believe pats will be +2 on turnover differential by the end of the game. pats 34 broncos 27
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nflpicker14 | 100 |
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Some good arguments on both sides. A thought: Keeping Moore and Ford out in the prior game suggests the likelihood of the continued love affair with the passing game that oakland simply isnt very good at. Prior to the dolphins game, I was pleasantly surprised with how they had been performing, but currently I view them as a team that is to organizationally stupid to try to control time of possession against the lions and will EASILY get torched in a Megatron versus losers wr contest. Can anyone point to any data that suggests the raiders will make a commitment to excellence and try to control time of possession? Because they had better...
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NickOSU22 | 72 |
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I was very surprised that tampa did not show up to play. I dont think its just a matter of turnovers...there seems to be a culture problem on that team right now. i suspected the phi/mia and nyg/dal games would not go according to line, but treated them as avoid, so that's fine. The game that pissed me off, cause I failed at capping it was Arizona / SanFran. Just goes to show you should always take division matchup into consideration when dealing with money management.
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mtp104 | 19 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:
Dallas needs to move to a more humble looking stadium. It is like putting fancy clothes on donkeys. Besides the Tebow story is much more fascinating. This make me laugh my ass off!
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CAP-IT | 10 |
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The patriots are nearly inept at pass defense. They are fine at run defense. Playing Tebow will be less of a challenge for the pats than playing dan orlofsky. Pats 34 Broncos 20.
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broller | 31 |
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This is one of the best capping posts I've ever read on this site. Excellent work. We agree on key variables, but we differ on conclusions :). I project Houston to hold the ball 31 minutes, and to have the edge in total pressure (ints, sacks, fumbles, sack yards, penalty yards, net punt yards). Cinci's year to date schedule is interesting in that basically they have played a lot of good defenses but not that many good offenses outside of division. My take is that they have gotten to the point in their evolution where they can beat lesser teams but might have an inferiority complex against the better teams. I acknowledge that where my "house of cards" could fall apart is in drinking the Yates coolaid. All week long we've been subjected to a lot of media spin about how he's cool under pressure, can make plays, blah, blah, blah. It's very reminscent of the media's love affair with Dalton before he started playing division games, lol. At a high level, I just think Cinci is outmatched, by a small margin, in virtually every category except the deep ball. Houston's secondary did let the falcons' wrs get past them on several plays where ryan just failed to make the throw, so I could see a scenario where cinci get's up early and yates folds under the pressure, but i'm going to make the key assumption that wade corrects these failures from last week's game. Texans 24-13. BOL.
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KScapping | 78 |
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13 point teaser (4 teams) sf +9, packers +1.5, redskins + 22, chiefs +23.5. carolina +16 is a good sub if you dont like any of these.
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boomgames | 8 |
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Pssst! Shanahan is Belichick kryptonite. And Vollmer's not playing. And Dan Orlofsky just threw 3 Q4 TDs against the Pats D having just returned to the NFL from a meth lab somewhere outside Detroit. Take wash +19 instead. unless you think the colts at foxboro are better than the skins at home.
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boomgames | 8 |
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Lets not confuse the 49ers for the cowboys. Harbaugh isnt about to let his guys coast.
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grins1010 | 27 |
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1. Underdog Houston beats Cinci at Cinci 24-13. 2. Underdog Vikings prevent home Lions from covering 10. 3. Favorite San Fran beats Zona s/u (strong ml play, weak ats play). 4. Packers easily cover spread against poser Raiders. 5. One or more of Saints, Patriots, Falcons lose, but which?
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grins1010 | 27 |
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I'm not here to talk shit against the bears or guarantee that the broncos will win, but I do think some things are being missed wrt why the line is what it is and what constitutes a good bet here. The bears advocates are basically saying the bears defense will shutdown the broncos offense and some combination of scoring from defense and special teams combined with the possibility of hanie and barber stepping up will be enough to secure a win. This line of thinking is one dimensional. We have two matchups to consider. Ask yourself who you expect to win the turnover battle? Do you really believe Hanie and Barber will outperform Tebow and Mcgahee in that regard? I love Marion the Barbarian, but he's lost his burst. And more importantly, he was never the player that Forte is in the screen game. Aren't you forgetting this is not the bears against a crappy defense, this is the depleted bears offense against one of the best performing defenses of the last 6 weeks? Now factor out turnovers, etc. Assuming 0 turnovers, who wins - Tebow and Mcgahee or Hanie and Barber? Why would you assume that in the absence of turnovers the latter would outperform the former? There is no basis for that assumption. The best case scenario for the bears here is a win by a field goal or a td. The best case scenario for the broncos here is a complete annihilation of the bears via implosion of Hanie. I dont think this is a great game to bet, but will certainly be on the denver side of the moneyline. Under 35.5 is not bad either. Tebow 17:13 If you are looking for dog plays this week, I would refer you to Houston over Cincinnati. If you're feeling friskier, I also like one or two of Tennessee, Carolina and Washington against the Saints, Falcons and Pats, in decreasing order of probability.
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Johnny_fire | 46 |
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17-10 broncos. I do wonder what Martz sees in Hanie, though.
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Johnny_fire | 46 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
A perfect example of incorrect public perception. Fact : The Saints are 16-6 S/U on the road since the start of the 2009 season.
I wouldn't have said "terrible". I would have said based on total scoring the packers only have a 35 to 33 advantage, but based on packers home scoring versus road saints scoring the pack has a 39-24 advantage. I'd have to pull time of possession data, etc to make a better guess but I would think the open would be -9.5 which would be driven down to -7.5 at kickoff. game result would be 35-31, with the winner being the winner of turnover differential. considering team elements: slight advantage to sean peyton slight advantage to aaron rogers, oline pass protection push to slight advantage pack wr corps strong advantage new orleans running game push special teams push d lines advantage pack linebackers advantage woodson i like the pack here as a slightly better version of the saints, although i'd rather have the saints coach and run game.
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ActionMagnet | 27 |
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I took a beating today cuz of Hanie, Romo and Palmer. I will fade all these fucks until further notice. OK, now that that's out of my system, early leans: locks: pitt, balt, gb, sea dog leans: ten?, jax, buff should also cover but less of a sure thing: sf win but dont cover: jets, lions, saints?, pats, falcons tossup: atl/car, hou/cin, phi/mia, nyg/dal, saints/ten |
ballinonabudget | 11 |
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Good writeup. The thing I take exception to is characterizing Matt Moore as >>> Palmer. I watched the Cowboys game and the thing that stood out is how many squandered opportunities the fish had on offense. Their defense kept them in it and outside of a long ball to Marshall I would characterize Moore's performance as borderline inept. The good news for your side is that Oakland's defense is very spotty, so there should be opportunities for the fish to score 7s instead of 3s. Oakland will be comfortable in a FG war unless the fish get up on them. From an intangibles perspective, the fish have done what they needed to do to prove their allegiance to Sporano. Meanwhile the Raiders are in a dogfight with the Broncos for their division. I accept and agree with your general premise that the fish have performed better against better teams than the raiders have over recent games, but i'm not sure that translates into a fish win as I have no confidence in the fish to score the 7s they will need to to overcome the Seabass kicking advantage. Fwiw, I'm on both sides of this game, with a couple parlays involving oak and one with mia. BOL.
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KScapping | 54 |
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1. Tennessee at Buffalo 2. Oakland at Miami
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MaximusRamulous | 15 |
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I fucking love Belichick. Everyone knows the only reason peyton won his solo sb ring is cuz bill polian cried to the competition committee enough to get them to change the pass interference rules. This was "proven" when the pats responded to the rules change by acquiring randy moss and obliterating all of peyton's gay single season passing records. suck it colts. your organization has been exposed, ha ha ha!
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Crashdavis565 | 45 |
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Well at least all the money he lost on the bolts isnt interfering with his ability to buy meth. or... I feel bad cuz all the money he lost on the bolts is clearly impacting his ability to keep up with his anti-psychotic maintenance meds. pick your fav... :)
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MVP702 | 109 |
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