First Post, UCONN line seems off by 4-5 points.

Question

I think this line is off and here is why.  This season, the Huskies have lived off the running game through and through, averaging a whopping 240.5 yards rushing a game.  Yes, Donald Brown is the real deal.  The Scarlet Knights are giving up a sizable 156.5 yards per game on the ground, and that is to teams with much less potent ground attack.  Facing off against the Mountaineers two weeks ago Rutgers allowed 175 yards rushing and was manhandeled in T.O.P. by 9 minutes.  That was also with an unhealthy Pat White, and a depleted Mountaineer offense in comparison to last year.  Also, on two seperate occassions, Rutgers allowed over 200 yards on the ground.  Once to Navy and once to Fresno State.  Total domination.  This week, UCONN will be without QB Tyler Lorenzen.  Zach Frazier will be stepping in to replace.  I personally think this is a positive.  Watching UCONN play this season, when Frazier came in they showed a few signs of life in the passing game which currently is piss poor at 150 yards a game and only 2 TDs.  Coming off a bye week after getting destroyed by UNC and playing an awful special teams game, i see no way that Rutgers will be able to control any aspect of this game.  UCONN scores 9 more points a game, allows 3 less points a game, rushes for nearly 130 more yards a game, allows 30 less yards on run defense, and with a new QB at the helm, the turnover struggles will lessen in the passing game.  A couple of other things to consider may be that UCONN is 5-0-1 in its last 6 against Rutgers and won 4 of those games outright. Rutgers has no shot at going anywhere in the Big East this year and if UCONN plans to compete for a Big East title, and contend with the likes of Pitt, USF, and such, this game is an absolute must win for the Huskies.  My money will be on UCONN -1.

TheRealUnger · Answer

I think this line is off and here is why.  This season, the Huskies have lived off the running game through and through, averaging a whopping 240.5 yards rushing a game.  Yes, Donald Brown is the real deal.  The Scarlet Knights are giving up a sizable 156.5 yards per game on the ground, and that is to teams with much less potent ground attack.  Facing off against the Mountaineers two weeks ago Rutgers allowed 175 yards rushing and was manhandeled in T.O.P. by 9 minutes.  That was also with an unhealthy Pat White, and a depleted Mountaineer offense in comparison to last year.  Also, on two seperate occassions, Rutgers allowed over 200 yards on the ground.  Once to Navy and once to Fresno State.  Total domination.  This week, UCONN will be without QB Tyler Lorenzen.  Zach Frazier will be stepping in to replace.  I personally think this is a positive.  Watching UCONN play this season, when Frazier came in they showed a few signs of life in the passing game which currently is piss poor at 150 yards a game and only 2 TDs.  Coming off a bye week after getting destroyed by UNC and playing an awful special teams game, i see no way that Rutgers will be able to control any aspect of this game.  UCONN scores 9 more points a game, allows 3 less points a game, rushes for nearly 130 more yards a game, allows 30 less yards on run defense, and with a new QB at the helm, the turnover struggles will lessen in the passing game.  A couple of other things to consider may be that UCONN is 5-0-1 in its last 6 against Rutgers and won 4 of those games outright. Rutgers has no shot at going anywhere in the Big East this year and if UCONN plans to compete for a Big East title, and contend with the likes of Pitt, USF, and such, this game is an absolute must win for the Huskies.  My money will be on UCONN -1.

TheRealUnger · Answer

Feedback is welcome and encouraged!

fel2718 · Answer

Almost 2000 bets posted and people are all over UConn (93%) and the spread hasn&#x27;t really moved.  I don&#x27;t mind betting with the public but that is quite alarming.

TheRealUnger · Answer

Honestly I am not too worried about "unanimous public picks".  The "public" doesn&#x27;t put the time and research into games, and honestly most sights you will see those stats of who puts money on who is just people going down a website page and clicking who they think "looks good".  But i respect where your comin from on the bookie doesn&#x27;t lose thing.

fel2718 · Answer

Yea I hear you, on paper UCONN looks like the obvious choice, I am probably going to not play this game.

RedRockets · Answer

I like UCONN too, but that large of a % on them when no movement is interesting

The_Birdman · Answer

GL guys, but I&#x27;m rollin with the Scarlet Knights.....They will finally beat a non 1-AA school at home!

Enmahs · Answer

RealUnger, who else do you like this week?

Upside · Answer

I know the Knights are bad , even though they did play Cinci much tougher than I thought . I know Cinci had a back-up in there , but none the less on the road they were in that game . I know a great capper DYounger that is on Rutgers , but I agree with you that Uconn will be in this game throughout and should win , period .

First Post, UCONN line seems off by 4-5 points.

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