a solid week last week thanks to a late backdoor TD by our beloved bills. i'm sure denver bettors were going crazy at that but we all must understand that backdoor covers are part of the NFL and honestly, we haven't gotten as many as we should have this season.
CDS.com has always been, and always will be, a high dollar subscription service. now, stop reading.
the new plan: keep sending money. also, you know you have a bunch of sh*t laying around your house, apartment, whatever that you don't need or use- old electronics, clothes that don't fit, clothes that do fit but you never should have bought because they look stupid or you look stupid wearing them, CD's, books, DVD's, kids toys, silverware, bowls and cups and kitchen supplies, whatever. look around your places, find that sh*t and take it somewhere where kids and people who got poor following NFL forum threads can use them.
only three weeks left. let's try not to f*ck it up.
a solid week last week thanks to a late backdoor TD by our beloved bills. i'm sure denver bettors were going crazy at that but we all must understand that backdoor covers are part of the NFL and honestly, we haven't gotten as many as we should have this season.
CDS.com has always been, and always will be, a high dollar subscription service. now, stop reading.
the new plan: keep sending money. also, you know you have a bunch of sh*t laying around your house, apartment, whatever that you don't need or use- old electronics, clothes that don't fit, clothes that do fit but you never should have bought because they look stupid or you look stupid wearing them, CD's, books, DVD's, kids toys, silverware, bowls and cups and kitchen supplies, whatever. look around your places, find that sh*t and take it somewhere where kids and people who got poor following NFL forum threads can use them.
only three weeks left. let's try not to f*ck it up.
AZ @ Stl -4.5 a little higher than i was hoping, but i think people now realize that St Louis is one of the better teams in the league right now. looking at their schedule, my guess is once the season is over, they'll be top 3 in the second half of the season, if they win tonight. and we think they will.
let's go back to AZ first. we made it clear we've been down on AZ in the second half. the stats just didn't seem to support the record. it took a while but they've complied lately, losing badly to seattle and then Atlanta and not playing particularly well last week, although a key INT by smith saved them.
they are still a good team, but not a 2-3 loss team. so, these teams are going in different directions and the line certainly reflects that. i like Stl to win for a couple of reasons. one, AZ on a short week after a tough win while Stl had it easy two weeks in a row. two, finally, Stl's DL that was supposed to be so great is playing like it and they go up against a team without a questionable Qb and backup RB's at home.
we don't like thursday games because so often one team mails it in and we can't guess who that is. however, Stl does not look like they are that team. they obviously want to get above .500 this season and are happy to beat up on the "better" teams in their division. of course, AZ has to play hard every week because they know seattle will win the division if they slip up. but again, we've seen teams with apparent motivation that need to win play like garbage on thursdays.
the question, of course, is whether we want to give 4.5 here. we like Stl to win and they have some blowouts on their resume but only one win over a good team by more than 4.
we lean to Stl, might even play it, but no bet as of now.
one other point. while we acknowledge our terrible predictions (tennessee over season wins), sometimes we need to point out the good ones. premiums subscribers receive the offseason newsletter and other commentary and know that we said St Louis would overtake SF as the better team within 2 years. that prediction was met with scorn and skepticism but i think we are ready to say that has happened sooner than we expected. SF is a mess right now. we know they are @ seattle. i guess we'll see how high that line is when we come to it.
Oak @ KC -10.5 when i saw this matchup but not yet the line, i said to myself, if they put this higher than 8, all those extra points will be revenge points. and subscribers know we don't give revenge points. so at 10.5, this automatically becomes a oakland or nothing play.
oakland has been an odd team. they are bad for sure. they can't run the ball so if carr has a bad game, it will get ugly. but, they play hard and have some good covers against some good teams. KC has a bad rushing defense so this may not be a terrible matchup for oakland. if oakland can run the ball a little, carr, who can be pretty good, can move the ball and not throw a bunch of INt's, i'd say oakland covers. KC is in a little bit of a free fall, losing 3 straight and probably not going to the playoffs, but they are still in it so their playoffs hopes plus revenge will be plenty of motivation here.
so, i think both will be motivated, not a terrible matchup for oakland and ultimately, too many points for KC at 10 or more. possible play on oakland.
AZ @ Stl -4.5 a little higher than i was hoping, but i think people now realize that St Louis is one of the better teams in the league right now. looking at their schedule, my guess is once the season is over, they'll be top 3 in the second half of the season, if they win tonight. and we think they will.
let's go back to AZ first. we made it clear we've been down on AZ in the second half. the stats just didn't seem to support the record. it took a while but they've complied lately, losing badly to seattle and then Atlanta and not playing particularly well last week, although a key INT by smith saved them.
they are still a good team, but not a 2-3 loss team. so, these teams are going in different directions and the line certainly reflects that. i like Stl to win for a couple of reasons. one, AZ on a short week after a tough win while Stl had it easy two weeks in a row. two, finally, Stl's DL that was supposed to be so great is playing like it and they go up against a team without a questionable Qb and backup RB's at home.
we don't like thursday games because so often one team mails it in and we can't guess who that is. however, Stl does not look like they are that team. they obviously want to get above .500 this season and are happy to beat up on the "better" teams in their division. of course, AZ has to play hard every week because they know seattle will win the division if they slip up. but again, we've seen teams with apparent motivation that need to win play like garbage on thursdays.
the question, of course, is whether we want to give 4.5 here. we like Stl to win and they have some blowouts on their resume but only one win over a good team by more than 4.
we lean to Stl, might even play it, but no bet as of now.
one other point. while we acknowledge our terrible predictions (tennessee over season wins), sometimes we need to point out the good ones. premiums subscribers receive the offseason newsletter and other commentary and know that we said St Louis would overtake SF as the better team within 2 years. that prediction was met with scorn and skepticism but i think we are ready to say that has happened sooner than we expected. SF is a mess right now. we know they are @ seattle. i guess we'll see how high that line is when we come to it.
Oak @ KC -10.5 when i saw this matchup but not yet the line, i said to myself, if they put this higher than 8, all those extra points will be revenge points. and subscribers know we don't give revenge points. so at 10.5, this automatically becomes a oakland or nothing play.
oakland has been an odd team. they are bad for sure. they can't run the ball so if carr has a bad game, it will get ugly. but, they play hard and have some good covers against some good teams. KC has a bad rushing defense so this may not be a terrible matchup for oakland. if oakland can run the ball a little, carr, who can be pretty good, can move the ball and not throw a bunch of INt's, i'd say oakland covers. KC is in a little bit of a free fall, losing 3 straight and probably not going to the playoffs, but they are still in it so their playoffs hopes plus revenge will be plenty of motivation here.
so, i think both will be motivated, not a terrible matchup for oakland and ultimately, too many points for KC at 10 or more. possible play on oakland.
Jax @ Shrimps -14 instead of the usual, too many points or what the f*ck, my initial response was, yeah, i can see it. the shrimps are better than we thought. more importantly, they've played a few bad tems at home and have beaten them all by double digits, unlike some teams that let off the gas once they get a lead. so, if you bet Bt, you know you have a decent shot of backing a team that will stay with you for the entire 60 minutes. and clearly Blt is good enough to win this by more than 14. Jax also lost denard robinson whih i think makes a difference.
as we and getty noted last week, Jax has reverted back to its high school offense of short passes and running plays they ran with gabbert and hene to some extent. whether they are overprotective of bortles who looks like he will be good but has struggled so far, or something else, you can't win games that way against good defenses. with robinson out,t hat puts more pressure on bortles which probably isn't a good thing.
i'm not sure we can endorse a 14 point favorites but i certainly understand it. like every other team in heir division, the shrimps need to keep winning. Jax, i'm not sure what their motivation will be.
Pitt @ Atl +2 what the f*ck? i can't say i've understood a Pitt line all season. and to our credit, we've been right more than wrong with them, when we've actually made a bet. pitt takes their shitty defense on the road again and are favored against a pretty good home team? that doesn't make sense to us. i know Atlanta has a terrible defense and leveon bell might set the rushing record against them on sunday but we just don't bet on terrible defenses on the road as favorites. and as crazy as it is, atlanta is in first place in their division so they'll be motivated.
the shittier defense loses this game and that certainly could be atlanta. and pitt has more weapons on offense. but pitt has not been as good on the road with one (maybe two) strong wins and they just had it. i wouldn't bet on them to have two good road performances in a row. for what it's worth, all of pitt's road games this season have come in two's. and they never played well in both of them. not even close. Atlanta or nothing here.
Jax @ Shrimps -14 instead of the usual, too many points or what the f*ck, my initial response was, yeah, i can see it. the shrimps are better than we thought. more importantly, they've played a few bad tems at home and have beaten them all by double digits, unlike some teams that let off the gas once they get a lead. so, if you bet Bt, you know you have a decent shot of backing a team that will stay with you for the entire 60 minutes. and clearly Blt is good enough to win this by more than 14. Jax also lost denard robinson whih i think makes a difference.
as we and getty noted last week, Jax has reverted back to its high school offense of short passes and running plays they ran with gabbert and hene to some extent. whether they are overprotective of bortles who looks like he will be good but has struggled so far, or something else, you can't win games that way against good defenses. with robinson out,t hat puts more pressure on bortles which probably isn't a good thing.
i'm not sure we can endorse a 14 point favorites but i certainly understand it. like every other team in heir division, the shrimps need to keep winning. Jax, i'm not sure what their motivation will be.
Pitt @ Atl +2 what the f*ck? i can't say i've understood a Pitt line all season. and to our credit, we've been right more than wrong with them, when we've actually made a bet. pitt takes their shitty defense on the road again and are favored against a pretty good home team? that doesn't make sense to us. i know Atlanta has a terrible defense and leveon bell might set the rushing record against them on sunday but we just don't bet on terrible defenses on the road as favorites. and as crazy as it is, atlanta is in first place in their division so they'll be motivated.
the shittier defense loses this game and that certainly could be atlanta. and pitt has more weapons on offense. but pitt has not been as good on the road with one (maybe two) strong wins and they just had it. i wouldn't bet on them to have two good road performances in a row. for what it's worth, all of pitt's road games this season have come in two's. and they never played well in both of them. not even close. Atlanta or nothing here.
Houston @ Indy -7 Watt was a one man wrecking crew last week against Jax. it looked like one of those college basketball games where one guy is just so much better than everyone else on the other team. larry johnson was like that in college. he could probably do the same thing against Indy's OL.
we bet against houston last week for a couple of reasons but a big one was fading fitzpatrick after a huge game once the line got to 7. houston was smart enough to focus on foster and basically toook fitzpatrick out of the gameplan. they knew that between foster running all over Jax, watt killing it on defense and Jax just being a horrible team, they didn't need to rely on fitzpatrick again.
the same won't be true here. luck is coming off a bad game and maybe someone knows how he does after that, probably pretty well. so, Indy should oput up some points and while the houston running game is strong right now, they will need fitzpatrick to do well. i doubt he will. so, the question becomes, can we give 7? doubtftul. we don't like betting against pretty big underdogs when the underdog has the better running game and the better defense. in fact, we like betting the underdog in that situation. i can make a case for either team right now so we'll see how things look closer to sunday.
Cincy @ Cleveland -1.5 two things stand out. first, when was the last time cleveland was favored in this matchup? two, obviously the big news is manziel is starting. manziel is probably too much of a qild card for us to make a play here, but it is odd that cleveland is favored over a division rival like this. we'll probably stay away unless we decide to bet cincy. ideally, sh*t cincy shows up and manziel looks pretty good and then we go against them at 3 or less the following week @ carolina.
Houston @ Indy -7 Watt was a one man wrecking crew last week against Jax. it looked like one of those college basketball games where one guy is just so much better than everyone else on the other team. larry johnson was like that in college. he could probably do the same thing against Indy's OL.
we bet against houston last week for a couple of reasons but a big one was fading fitzpatrick after a huge game once the line got to 7. houston was smart enough to focus on foster and basically toook fitzpatrick out of the gameplan. they knew that between foster running all over Jax, watt killing it on defense and Jax just being a horrible team, they didn't need to rely on fitzpatrick again.
the same won't be true here. luck is coming off a bad game and maybe someone knows how he does after that, probably pretty well. so, Indy should oput up some points and while the houston running game is strong right now, they will need fitzpatrick to do well. i doubt he will. so, the question becomes, can we give 7? doubtftul. we don't like betting against pretty big underdogs when the underdog has the better running game and the better defense. in fact, we like betting the underdog in that situation. i can make a case for either team right now so we'll see how things look closer to sunday.
Cincy @ Cleveland -1.5 two things stand out. first, when was the last time cleveland was favored in this matchup? two, obviously the big news is manziel is starting. manziel is probably too much of a qild card for us to make a play here, but it is odd that cleveland is favored over a division rival like this. we'll probably stay away unless we decide to bet cincy. ideally, sh*t cincy shows up and manziel looks pretty good and then we go against them at 3 or less the following week @ carolina.
Miami @ NE -7.5 a line that is probably a little inflated. i think if you charted certain wining characteristics of teams over time, you'd see the graph goes up and down and once a team gets so high, it doesn't stay very long as the line catches up and then overcompensates. i know people on twitter try to do this but i'm not sure how that works. anyway, i think NE is there. 8 of 9 eins with only one bad performacne when they struggled against the jets. two consecutive road games and now coming back home after staying on the road the entire time (they went straight to SD after green bay). and while miami is a division rival, NE should know they have this division pretty well locked up.
miami is a decent team and their recent performance has shown that. no huge wins, no bad losses. but they are certainly good enough to stay within 7 of NE in somewhat of a letdown mode or get the backdoor cover. at 7 ore more, we'll take a good look at miami.
TB @ Carolina -3 the big issue here is that newton is out and anderson is starting. i don't think that's a big deal to me as newton can be good or bad on any given day. the real question is whether you want to give 3 points with a team that hadn't won in two months before last sunday. and while we said NO was giving too many points in that one, I have no idea how carolina gives up 30+ routinely this season and then completely shuts down NO on the road. anyway, i think that was an aberration and i'm basically throwing out that result. for that reason, while i don't like going against backup Qb's in their first start due to lines adjusting too much, i see this as a game that either team can win so, in tha situation, taking the points is usually the more attractive option. still unsure about this one though.
Washington @ NYG -6.5 how in the f*ck are the giants favored by 6.5 over anyone? i get that washington is in complete disarray and the QB issue is a disaster but the giants have some really bad performances on their resume this season and they have a lot of injuries. so apparently mccoy is starting because gruden hass had enough of RG3. can't really argue with that but all of the discussion and back and forth can't be good for that team.
one thing that does favor NYG is that although they lost 7 in a row and haven't had a chance to go to the playoffs in a while, they had a rough schedule through that 7 game losing streak (with one exception) and they played well for parts of most of those games. they clearly are capable of beating washington by 10+ given the shape washington is in. but there are a lot of issues on both sides and one or both of them may shut it down at any time. might be an unbettable situation here, but i'm not ready to concede yet.
Miami @ NE -7.5 a line that is probably a little inflated. i think if you charted certain wining characteristics of teams over time, you'd see the graph goes up and down and once a team gets so high, it doesn't stay very long as the line catches up and then overcompensates. i know people on twitter try to do this but i'm not sure how that works. anyway, i think NE is there. 8 of 9 eins with only one bad performacne when they struggled against the jets. two consecutive road games and now coming back home after staying on the road the entire time (they went straight to SD after green bay). and while miami is a division rival, NE should know they have this division pretty well locked up.
miami is a decent team and their recent performance has shown that. no huge wins, no bad losses. but they are certainly good enough to stay within 7 of NE in somewhat of a letdown mode or get the backdoor cover. at 7 ore more, we'll take a good look at miami.
TB @ Carolina -3 the big issue here is that newton is out and anderson is starting. i don't think that's a big deal to me as newton can be good or bad on any given day. the real question is whether you want to give 3 points with a team that hadn't won in two months before last sunday. and while we said NO was giving too many points in that one, I have no idea how carolina gives up 30+ routinely this season and then completely shuts down NO on the road. anyway, i think that was an aberration and i'm basically throwing out that result. for that reason, while i don't like going against backup Qb's in their first start due to lines adjusting too much, i see this as a game that either team can win so, in tha situation, taking the points is usually the more attractive option. still unsure about this one though.
Washington @ NYG -6.5 how in the f*ck are the giants favored by 6.5 over anyone? i get that washington is in complete disarray and the QB issue is a disaster but the giants have some really bad performances on their resume this season and they have a lot of injuries. so apparently mccoy is starting because gruden hass had enough of RG3. can't really argue with that but all of the discussion and back and forth can't be good for that team.
one thing that does favor NYG is that although they lost 7 in a row and haven't had a chance to go to the playoffs in a while, they had a rough schedule through that 7 game losing streak (with one exception) and they played well for parts of most of those games. they clearly are capable of beating washington by 10+ given the shape washington is in. but there are a lot of issues on both sides and one or both of them may shut it down at any time. might be an unbettable situation here, but i'm not ready to concede yet.
miami is a decent team and their recent performance has shown that. no huge wins, no bad losses. but they are certainly good enough to stay within 7 of NE in somewhat of a letdown mode or get the backdoor cover. at 7 ore more, we'll take a good look at Miami
Love reading your write-ups, you do great work. I have to disagree with you here though, I am a Patriot fanatic and the one thing I know is there is no such thing as a let down game with the Patriots, especially in December against a division rival that has already beaten them. BB doesn't coach that style and Brady and company treat every game the same, try and score on every possession and focus on your assignment on every play. UIf the Patriots don't cover it will have nothing to do with it being a let down, also Patriots don't lose at home in second half of the seasons and hardly ever lose at home period so anyone betting on Miami is just hoping to stay within the number, when I bet a dog less than Double Digits it means I believe they can win the game outright, I don't believe that is the case here with home field advantage throughout the playoffs on the line.
miami is a decent team and their recent performance has shown that. no huge wins, no bad losses. but they are certainly good enough to stay within 7 of NE in somewhat of a letdown mode or get the backdoor cover. at 7 ore more, we'll take a good look at Miami
Love reading your write-ups, you do great work. I have to disagree with you here though, I am a Patriot fanatic and the one thing I know is there is no such thing as a let down game with the Patriots, especially in December against a division rival that has already beaten them. BB doesn't coach that style and Brady and company treat every game the same, try and score on every possession and focus on your assignment on every play. UIf the Patriots don't cover it will have nothing to do with it being a let down, also Patriots don't lose at home in second half of the seasons and hardly ever lose at home period so anyone betting on Miami is just hoping to stay within the number, when I bet a dog less than Double Digits it means I believe they can win the game outright, I don't believe that is the case here with home field advantage throughout the playoffs on the line.
GB @ Buffalo +4.5 Buffalo continues to get the job done for us with a late TD at denver last week. and now they play a similar team at home as a decent sized home dog. and as you might expect, we like buffalo again. better defense at home getting points plus GB is off 5 stragith wins including a tougher than they expected MNF win last week. the thing i like about Buffalo playing these teams that are in letdown spots and won't take buffalo as seriously as they would a tough division opponent is buffalo brings a tough defense and teams in letdown spots might find it harder to run the score up and get a comfortable lead. denver was an example last week.
anyway, always tough to bet against rodgers when he's playing like this but this is a good spot to do so. possible play on buffalo.
Minn @ Detroit -7.5 detroit on game 3 of a three game home stand that is fairly easy. this is a fair line as the detroit defense should be in good shape against minnesota's weak offense and they can score enough when healthy to get into the high 20's . minnesota is not scoring at all on the road. it'll be about a month since they were on the road and they only put up 13 to chicago, which sucks. and then 13 in regulation @ TB, which also sucks. so, we can expect another low score from minnesota here, maybe 17 or so. so you'd need detroit to get into the mid 20's and hope against a backdoor cover knowing detroit has a good enough defense where they aren't as susceptible as other teams. i think if this game goes as it should, which happens sometimes in the NFL, detroit wins 27 - 17.
NYJ @ Tenn +2.5 had we gone 0-5 last week, i still would haven taken comfort in the fact that we didn't bet Tenn when it was such a letdown spot for the giants. and we have the same situation here with the jets coming off a tough loss having come back against the vikings only to lose in OT on a screen pass. it's like the NFL schedule makers are fuckin with us. the jets have NE next week, but do they even care enough to look ahead? like last week, i'd say Tenn is the play because no professional team can stay this far down for so long and the jets cannot give a garbage about this one at all. and unlike the giants who have a real coach, the jets really don't. i hope we don't bet this but we'll look at Tennessee.
Denver @ SD +4 weird game for SD last week. the defense played well but the offense couldn't move the ball much at all. but i'd expect a better effort out of SD. this is a true must win game. if they lose, clearly the division will be over but they also go to 8-6 like about half the other teams in the conference. and they finish the season with two road games. based on that plus the fact that i don't think denver is quite the same team they were in the first half, i see a close game either team can win so taking the home dog at more than 3 might be worth a look.
GB @ Buffalo +4.5 Buffalo continues to get the job done for us with a late TD at denver last week. and now they play a similar team at home as a decent sized home dog. and as you might expect, we like buffalo again. better defense at home getting points plus GB is off 5 stragith wins including a tougher than they expected MNF win last week. the thing i like about Buffalo playing these teams that are in letdown spots and won't take buffalo as seriously as they would a tough division opponent is buffalo brings a tough defense and teams in letdown spots might find it harder to run the score up and get a comfortable lead. denver was an example last week.
anyway, always tough to bet against rodgers when he's playing like this but this is a good spot to do so. possible play on buffalo.
Minn @ Detroit -7.5 detroit on game 3 of a three game home stand that is fairly easy. this is a fair line as the detroit defense should be in good shape against minnesota's weak offense and they can score enough when healthy to get into the high 20's . minnesota is not scoring at all on the road. it'll be about a month since they were on the road and they only put up 13 to chicago, which sucks. and then 13 in regulation @ TB, which also sucks. so, we can expect another low score from minnesota here, maybe 17 or so. so you'd need detroit to get into the mid 20's and hope against a backdoor cover knowing detroit has a good enough defense where they aren't as susceptible as other teams. i think if this game goes as it should, which happens sometimes in the NFL, detroit wins 27 - 17.
NYJ @ Tenn +2.5 had we gone 0-5 last week, i still would haven taken comfort in the fact that we didn't bet Tenn when it was such a letdown spot for the giants. and we have the same situation here with the jets coming off a tough loss having come back against the vikings only to lose in OT on a screen pass. it's like the NFL schedule makers are fuckin with us. the jets have NE next week, but do they even care enough to look ahead? like last week, i'd say Tenn is the play because no professional team can stay this far down for so long and the jets cannot give a garbage about this one at all. and unlike the giants who have a real coach, the jets really don't. i hope we don't bet this but we'll look at Tennessee.
Denver @ SD +4 weird game for SD last week. the defense played well but the offense couldn't move the ball much at all. but i'd expect a better effort out of SD. this is a true must win game. if they lose, clearly the division will be over but they also go to 8-6 like about half the other teams in the conference. and they finish the season with two road games. based on that plus the fact that i don't think denver is quite the same team they were in the first half, i see a close game either team can win so taking the home dog at more than 3 might be worth a look.
SF @ Seattle +10.5 should we shock all CDS.com subscribers by picking seattle here? no, we won't do that. any time you lose to oakland in a must win game and now are basically out of the playoffs, there must be some real problems with the team. notwithstanding their injuries, apparently harbaugh has one foot out the door and kaepernick is taking a lot of garbage. the only things that point to a possible SF bet would be the fact that it's a big rivalry (at least recently) but that works both ways. i'm sure SF wants to play seattle tough, if they still care, but i'm also sure that seattle would love to stomp SF if they had the chance.
that extra 0.5 seems to be tempting people to take SF due to the rivalry factor. i'm not sure we'll be taking the bait. maybe. if SF truly has internal problems and motivational problems, going into Seattle, who needs the win to catch AZ and GB (seattle does not want to go to GB in the playoffs), who is playing their best defense of the season and who would love to crush SF may not be a great idea.
Dallas @ Philly -3.5 another huge game as one of these teams may not be going to the playoffs despite great seasons and a nice record. the other big factor is that philly just dismantled dallas a couple of weeks ago on national TV. my problem with dallas is i don't like the way their defense is playing. going into philly having given up about 30 points/game in your last 3 could be a problem. if you can get this at 3, i'd say there's value with philly. they were just even with seattle at home last week and seattle is clearly better than dallas right now so to give 3 here seems fair. maybe dallas turns it around and gets the upper hand but with their defense, i'm not sure i'd bet on that. of course, there's also the sanchez factor. that could bite you at any time as well.
NO @ Chicago +3 a team that sucks way more than people expected against a team that sucks a little less more than people expected but that has also quit. i guess that explain the line. i'm glad we almost never bet MNF games because this one is ugly. i guess if i had an opinion, i'd have to go with the team that hasn't quit that still can win their division, but there's no real value in making a play based on that.
SF @ Seattle +10.5 should we shock all CDS.com subscribers by picking seattle here? no, we won't do that. any time you lose to oakland in a must win game and now are basically out of the playoffs, there must be some real problems with the team. notwithstanding their injuries, apparently harbaugh has one foot out the door and kaepernick is taking a lot of garbage. the only things that point to a possible SF bet would be the fact that it's a big rivalry (at least recently) but that works both ways. i'm sure SF wants to play seattle tough, if they still care, but i'm also sure that seattle would love to stomp SF if they had the chance.
that extra 0.5 seems to be tempting people to take SF due to the rivalry factor. i'm not sure we'll be taking the bait. maybe. if SF truly has internal problems and motivational problems, going into Seattle, who needs the win to catch AZ and GB (seattle does not want to go to GB in the playoffs), who is playing their best defense of the season and who would love to crush SF may not be a great idea.
Dallas @ Philly -3.5 another huge game as one of these teams may not be going to the playoffs despite great seasons and a nice record. the other big factor is that philly just dismantled dallas a couple of weeks ago on national TV. my problem with dallas is i don't like the way their defense is playing. going into philly having given up about 30 points/game in your last 3 could be a problem. if you can get this at 3, i'd say there's value with philly. they were just even with seattle at home last week and seattle is clearly better than dallas right now so to give 3 here seems fair. maybe dallas turns it around and gets the upper hand but with their defense, i'm not sure i'd bet on that. of course, there's also the sanchez factor. that could bite you at any time as well.
NO @ Chicago +3 a team that sucks way more than people expected against a team that sucks a little less more than people expected but that has also quit. i guess that explain the line. i'm glad we almost never bet MNF games because this one is ugly. i guess if i had an opinion, i'd have to go with the team that hasn't quit that still can win their division, but there's no real value in making a play based on that.
miami is a decent team and their recent performance has shown that. no huge wins, no bad losses. but they are certainly good enough to stay within 7 of NE in somewhat of a letdown mode or get the backdoor cover. at 7 ore more, we'll take a good look at Miami
Love reading your write-ups, you do great work. I have to disagree with you here though, I am a Patriot fanatic and the one thing I know is there is no such thing as a let down game with the Patriots, especially in December against a division rival that has already beaten them. BB doesn't coach that style and Brady and company treat every game the same, try and score on every possession and focus on your assignment on every play. UIf the Patriots don't cover it will have nothing to do with it being a let down, also Patriots don't lose at home in second half of the seasons and hardly ever lose at home period so anyone betting on Miami is just hoping to stay within the number, when I bet a dog less than Double Digits it means I believe they can win the game outright, I don't believe that is the case here with home field advantage throughout the playoffs on the line.
if you took my record betting on or against every team over the years, my bets in new england games would have to be at or near the bottom. i don't have much success with this team. while i respect brady and belichick as much as most, maybe my style doesn't translate well to this team. fortunately, i don't bet their games much.
i am tempted by miami here at 7 or 7.5 but i'm not sure i'll do anything with it. but if you're a patriots fan and i do bet miami, that probably means good things for you.
miami is a decent team and their recent performance has shown that. no huge wins, no bad losses. but they are certainly good enough to stay within 7 of NE in somewhat of a letdown mode or get the backdoor cover. at 7 ore more, we'll take a good look at Miami
Love reading your write-ups, you do great work. I have to disagree with you here though, I am a Patriot fanatic and the one thing I know is there is no such thing as a let down game with the Patriots, especially in December against a division rival that has already beaten them. BB doesn't coach that style and Brady and company treat every game the same, try and score on every possession and focus on your assignment on every play. UIf the Patriots don't cover it will have nothing to do with it being a let down, also Patriots don't lose at home in second half of the seasons and hardly ever lose at home period so anyone betting on Miami is just hoping to stay within the number, when I bet a dog less than Double Digits it means I believe they can win the game outright, I don't believe that is the case here with home field advantage throughout the playoffs on the line.
if you took my record betting on or against every team over the years, my bets in new england games would have to be at or near the bottom. i don't have much success with this team. while i respect brady and belichick as much as most, maybe my style doesn't translate well to this team. fortunately, i don't bet their games much.
i am tempted by miami here at 7 or 7.5 but i'm not sure i'll do anything with it. but if you're a patriots fan and i do bet miami, that probably means good things for you.
Time for only one comment right now, and I'll gladly make a play of it.
AZ +5.5 The Cardinals live and die by big plays and it's not always on defense either (they're #2 in INTs and defensive TDs). In a stat that was brought to my attention today, QB Drew Stanton has made 32 of his 120 completions worth at least 20 yards. That's serious big play passing, much like Coach Bruce Arians did with Ben Rothslisberger in Pittsburgh when the Steelers were winning 2 Super Bowls not that long ago.
St Louis (6-7) has drilled a pair of teams with a combined record of 5-21 while the Cards have navigated the same division to a 10-3 mark so far. I think that Arians goes all in tonite to maintain the division lead rather than let it hang in the balance next week at Seattle.
Based on their body of work all season, this is a ridiculous line to take the Rams on. So don't.
Time for only one comment right now, and I'll gladly make a play of it.
AZ +5.5 The Cardinals live and die by big plays and it's not always on defense either (they're #2 in INTs and defensive TDs). In a stat that was brought to my attention today, QB Drew Stanton has made 32 of his 120 completions worth at least 20 yards. That's serious big play passing, much like Coach Bruce Arians did with Ben Rothslisberger in Pittsburgh when the Steelers were winning 2 Super Bowls not that long ago.
St Louis (6-7) has drilled a pair of teams with a combined record of 5-21 while the Cards have navigated the same division to a 10-3 mark so far. I think that Arians goes all in tonite to maintain the division lead rather than let it hang in the balance next week at Seattle.
Based on their body of work all season, this is a ridiculous line to take the Rams on. So don't.
Dallas @ Philly -3.5 another huge game as one of these teams may not be going to the playoffs despite great seasons and a nice record. the other big factor is that philly just dismantled dallas a couple of weeks ago on national TV. my problem with dallas is i don't like the way their defense is playing. going into philly having given up about 30 points/game in your last 3 could be a problem. if you can get this at 3, i'd say there's value with philly. they were just even with seattle at home last week and seattle is clearly better than dallas right now so to give 3 here seems fair. maybe dallas turns it around and gets the upper hand but with their defense, i'm not sure i'd bet on that. of course, there's also the sanchez factor. that could bite you at any time as well.
Dallas @ Philly -3.5 another huge game as one of these teams may not be going to the playoffs despite great seasons and a nice record. the other big factor is that philly just dismantled dallas a couple of weeks ago on national TV. my problem with dallas is i don't like the way their defense is playing. going into philly having given up about 30 points/game in your last 3 could be a problem. if you can get this at 3, i'd say there's value with philly. they were just even with seattle at home last week and seattle is clearly better than dallas right now so to give 3 here seems fair. maybe dallas turns it around and gets the upper hand but with their defense, i'm not sure i'd bet on that. of course, there's also the sanchez factor. that could bite you at any time as well.
back from work and post work activities. and the game starts in about 10 minutes. it's hard to get into betting mode on thursday nights.
getty likes AZ. chaloots likes Stl. haven't seen any other picks if they are out there. i like Stl but i'm not in love with the 6 points i'd have to give right now.
back from work and post work activities. and the game starts in about 10 minutes. it's hard to get into betting mode on thursday nights.
getty likes AZ. chaloots likes Stl. haven't seen any other picks if they are out there. i like Stl but i'm not in love with the 6 points i'd have to give right now.
Dallas @ Philly -3.5 another huge game as one of these teams may not be going to the playoffs despite great seasons and a nice record. the other big factor is that philly just dismantled dallas a couple of weeks ago on national TV. my problem with dallas is i don't like the way their defense is playing. going into philly having given up about 30 points/game in your last 3 could be a problem. if you can get this at 3, i'd say there's value with philly. they were just even with seattle at home last week and seattle is clearly better than dallas right now so to give 3 here seems fair. maybe dallas turns it around and gets the upper hand but with their defense, i'm not sure i'd bet on that. of course, there's also the sanchez factor. that could bite you at any time as well.
All Cowboys have Chinese eyes...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuTXSnez3WM
here's what i'm getting the old lady for christmas. it's a uk product. https://mahabis.com/
or i might get her an Ashley Cole jersey.
since you have both of these items, can you tell me which one you think she'd like better?
Dallas @ Philly -3.5 another huge game as one of these teams may not be going to the playoffs despite great seasons and a nice record. the other big factor is that philly just dismantled dallas a couple of weeks ago on national TV. my problem with dallas is i don't like the way their defense is playing. going into philly having given up about 30 points/game in your last 3 could be a problem. if you can get this at 3, i'd say there's value with philly. they were just even with seattle at home last week and seattle is clearly better than dallas right now so to give 3 here seems fair. maybe dallas turns it around and gets the upper hand but with their defense, i'm not sure i'd bet on that. of course, there's also the sanchez factor. that could bite you at any time as well.
All Cowboys have Chinese eyes...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuTXSnez3WM
here's what i'm getting the old lady for christmas. it's a uk product. https://mahabis.com/
or i might get her an Ashley Cole jersey.
since you have both of these items, can you tell me which one you think she'd like better?
NYJ @ Tenn +2.5 had we gone 0-5 last week, i still would haven taken comfort in the fact that we didn't bet Tenn when it was such a letdown spot for the giants. and we have the same situation here with the jets coming off a tough loss having come back against the vikings only to lose in OT on a screen pass. it's like the NFL schedule makers are fuckin with us. the jets have NE next week, but do they even care enough to look ahead? like last week, i'd say Tenn is the play because no professional team can stay this far down for so long and the jets cannot give a garbage about this one at all. and unlike the giants who have a real coach, the jets really don't. i hope we don't bet this but we'll look at Tennessee.
If I were a rich man with nothing better to do, I'd show up in Nashville with a paper bag on my head. One side would have the Titans logo, and the other side would be the Jets. Teams like these make Jacksonville less conspicuous in their incompetence.
You're right. The Jets can't have any real motivation at all. If Tennessee wants to win a game for the sake of morale, this is their chance. I'll probably bet the Titans, and understandably regret it.
On the positive side, Geno Smith believes he's showing "flashes" of a Pro Bowl QB. Sure thing, Geno...whatever you say. We're all on board the train...just waiting for someone to drive it.
NYJ @ Tenn +2.5 had we gone 0-5 last week, i still would haven taken comfort in the fact that we didn't bet Tenn when it was such a letdown spot for the giants. and we have the same situation here with the jets coming off a tough loss having come back against the vikings only to lose in OT on a screen pass. it's like the NFL schedule makers are fuckin with us. the jets have NE next week, but do they even care enough to look ahead? like last week, i'd say Tenn is the play because no professional team can stay this far down for so long and the jets cannot give a garbage about this one at all. and unlike the giants who have a real coach, the jets really don't. i hope we don't bet this but we'll look at Tennessee.
If I were a rich man with nothing better to do, I'd show up in Nashville with a paper bag on my head. One side would have the Titans logo, and the other side would be the Jets. Teams like these make Jacksonville less conspicuous in their incompetence.
You're right. The Jets can't have any real motivation at all. If Tennessee wants to win a game for the sake of morale, this is their chance. I'll probably bet the Titans, and understandably regret it.
On the positive side, Geno Smith believes he's showing "flashes" of a Pro Bowl QB. Sure thing, Geno...whatever you say. We're all on board the train...just waiting for someone to drive it.
Jax @ Shrimps -14 instead of the usual, too many points or what the f*ck, my initial response was, yeah, i can see it. the shrimps are better than we thought. more importantly, they've played a few bad tems at home and have beaten them all by double digits, unlike some teams that let off the gas once they get a lead. so, if you bet Bt, you know you have a decent shot of backing a team that will stay with you for the entire 60 minutes. and clearly Blt is good enough to win this by more than 14. Jax also lost denard robinson whih i think makes a difference.
as we and getty noted last week, Jax has reverted back to its high school offense of short passes and running plays they ran with gabbert and hene to some extent. whether they are overprotective of bortles who looks like he will be good but has struggled so far, or something else, you can't win games that way against good defenses. with robinson out,t hat puts more pressure on bortles which probably isn't a good thing.
i'm not sure we can endorse a 14 point favorites but i certainly understand it. like every other team in heir division, the shrimps need to keep winning. Jax, i'm not sure what their motivation will be.
Pitt @ Atl +2 what the f*ck? i can't say i've understood a Pitt line all season. and to our credit, we've been right more than wrong with them, when we've actually made a bet. pitt takes their shitty defense on the road again and are favored against a pretty good home team? that doesn't make sense to us. i know Atlanta has a terrible defense and leveon bell might set the rushing record against them on sunday but we just don't bet on terrible defenses on the road as favorites. and as crazy as it is, atlanta is in first place in their division so they'll be motivated.
the shittier defense loses this game and that certainly could be atlanta. and pitt has more weapons on offense. but pitt has not been as good on the road with one (maybe two) strong wins and they just had it. i wouldn't bet on them to have two good road performances in a row. for what it's worth, all of pitt's road games this season have come in two's. and they never played well in both of them. not even close. Atlanta or nothing here.
Shrimps - 14 too many for me. Pitt line seems right to me, both D stinks but Pitt with much better ground game could allow them to control time if needed. Pitt 7 - 3 in conference.
Jax @ Shrimps -14 instead of the usual, too many points or what the f*ck, my initial response was, yeah, i can see it. the shrimps are better than we thought. more importantly, they've played a few bad tems at home and have beaten them all by double digits, unlike some teams that let off the gas once they get a lead. so, if you bet Bt, you know you have a decent shot of backing a team that will stay with you for the entire 60 minutes. and clearly Blt is good enough to win this by more than 14. Jax also lost denard robinson whih i think makes a difference.
as we and getty noted last week, Jax has reverted back to its high school offense of short passes and running plays they ran with gabbert and hene to some extent. whether they are overprotective of bortles who looks like he will be good but has struggled so far, or something else, you can't win games that way against good defenses. with robinson out,t hat puts more pressure on bortles which probably isn't a good thing.
i'm not sure we can endorse a 14 point favorites but i certainly understand it. like every other team in heir division, the shrimps need to keep winning. Jax, i'm not sure what their motivation will be.
Pitt @ Atl +2 what the f*ck? i can't say i've understood a Pitt line all season. and to our credit, we've been right more than wrong with them, when we've actually made a bet. pitt takes their shitty defense on the road again and are favored against a pretty good home team? that doesn't make sense to us. i know Atlanta has a terrible defense and leveon bell might set the rushing record against them on sunday but we just don't bet on terrible defenses on the road as favorites. and as crazy as it is, atlanta is in first place in their division so they'll be motivated.
the shittier defense loses this game and that certainly could be atlanta. and pitt has more weapons on offense. but pitt has not been as good on the road with one (maybe two) strong wins and they just had it. i wouldn't bet on them to have two good road performances in a row. for what it's worth, all of pitt's road games this season have come in two's. and they never played well in both of them. not even close. Atlanta or nothing here.
Shrimps - 14 too many for me. Pitt line seems right to me, both D stinks but Pitt with much better ground game could allow them to control time if needed. Pitt 7 - 3 in conference.
Dallas @ Philly -3.5 another huge game as one of these teams may not be going to the playoffs despite great seasons and a nice record. the other big factor is that philly just dismantled dallas a couple of weeks ago on national TV. my problem with dallas is i don't like the way their defense is playing. going into philly having given up about 30 points/game in your last 3 could be a problem. if you can get this at 3, i'd say there's value with philly. they were just even with seattle at home last week and seattle is clearly better than dallas right now so to give 3 here seems fair. maybe dallas turns it around and gets the upper hand but with their defense, i'm not sure i'd bet on that. of course, there's also the sanchez factor. that could bite you at any time as well.
Dallas @ Philly -3.5 another huge game as one of these teams may not be going to the playoffs despite great seasons and a nice record. the other big factor is that philly just dismantled dallas a couple of weeks ago on national TV. my problem with dallas is i don't like the way their defense is playing. going into philly having given up about 30 points/game in your last 3 could be a problem. if you can get this at 3, i'd say there's value with philly. they were just even with seattle at home last week and seattle is clearly better than dallas right now so to give 3 here seems fair. maybe dallas turns it around and gets the upper hand but with their defense, i'm not sure i'd bet on that. of course, there's also the sanchez factor. that could bite you at any time as well.
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