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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: THE CHASE LOUNGE...Nov 8, 2012
Angle4U999 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#176
Posted: 11/11/2012 2:09:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jonesin:

If I do I'll play Cincy in a 13 pt tease.

Also on o/u trends Nfc north vs Nfc north 0-6 



Don't forget NFC West under on SF/Rams. NFC west 4-0 under.

Thanks to you and all the others for kind words today. Just remember all these winners when I post a big fat juicy loser!!!
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#177
Posted: 11/11/2012 2:16:23 AM

We kick things off this week with a typically contrarian angle that had the week off in Week 9, followed by last week’s angles with updated results and this week’s new qualifiers. All of the season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Also, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.

Here are the NFL Trends & Angles for Week 10, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005 plus the first nine weeks of this season. (next post, trying to make sure it doesn't mess up the thread margins).

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#178
Posted: 11/11/2012 2:27:03 AM
(Note, I have no affiliation with website where this info is posted, if you want to read it for yourself, it is Insider Angles and is a dot com site)

Angle #1 Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (96-64-2, 60.0% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. This angle lost its only play when it last turned up in Week 8. Qualifier: St. Louis +14.

Angle #2 Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (60-41, 58.8% ATS): Very few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does! Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a nice-sized sampling. This angle went 0-1 in Week 9. Qualifier: Houston +2 at Chicago.

Angle #3 Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (90-56-4, 61.6% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. This angle won its only play in Week 9. Qualifiers: St. Louis +14 and Tennessee +7

Angle #4 Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (131-73-5, 64.2% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started  to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. This angle won its only play in Week 9. Qualifiers: Buffalo +14 and Kansas City +13-14 (Monday). (Wait as line is going up)

Angle #5 Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (164-106-5, 60.7% ATS): The logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is restricted to conference game only as now facing a familiar foe lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe and what to expect on defense. This angle won its only play in Week 9. Qualifiers: Buffalo +14 and Kansas City +13-14 (Monday).

Angle #6 Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (82-44-4, 65.1% ATS): NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle went 2-0 in Week 9. Qualifiers: New England -13 (contradicion) and San Francisco -12.



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#179
Posted: 11/11/2012 2:53:18 AM
SF is also a contradiction to ST LOUIS.

Angle NFL chase plays. Since some of my chase plays are 4 games, I will not add any new ones as I don't really advise people to chase 4 games. Some teams such as KC and Philly are really bad. Plus, the system I play calls for a team that is favored to be ML. I don't want you guys to have this kind of risk

With that said, I will finish out the chases already started and not add any new ones, other than 3 game chases. When I first started posting, I had already won several on the first game, then of course that stopped when posting here.

BE AWARE THAT 3 GAME NFL CHASE IS AS RELIABLE AS MY NBA CHASES, whether ML or spread. Seattle won on GM2 last week!

Official 3 game chase, GM1 of 3 Oak +8 (Oak is great as dog)
Standard 3 game chase, ML if fave.

Game 3 of 4 Cincy +4.5 (standard 4 game chase, ML if fave)

Game 2 of 4 Buff + 14 (pushed at +12 last week. Modified system  calls for one spread + 1 if dog and buy down 1 point if fave.

Game 2 of 4 KC + 13-14, wait as moving up!

(Unfortunately, all results based on CLOSING line, but you should be okay with lines listed above and if you can do better especially on key numbers of 3, 7 10, 14, 21, etc, always do that!)

Compare these angle plays to McShady bye week trendz and you may see some duplicate. These should be stronger plays and maybe a parlay on a couple.

Double angle on KC with no contradictions. KC has NEVER LED a game this year, so it may be a good prop to bet other team score first, but probably juicy!

Angle out till morning!

































  
Voided play, Philly +3.5 (Dallas ML and Philly +3.5 both qualify as plays, so I will wait and pick up the loser for official chase play next week). Philly lost GM1 of 4 Monday night.

Personally, you all know I love to fade Dallas, so I will probably play Philly at least +3.5 or more if I can get it. As an afternoon game, I am hoping for Dallas money to come in.
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#180
Posted: 11/11/2012 3:34:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Go_Nads:


What exactly are you trying to find?  If it has to do with Quarter ML, then I should be able to do it.  If it has to do with Quarter ATS, then I doubt it.  I don't believe they have NBA Quarter lines in the database.


Hey Nads, how do you search for 1Q ML? I cannot get the correct language.
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#181
Posted: 11/11/2012 3:48:10 AM
Sorry for the blank space. Time for sleep. Angle really out
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#182
Posted: 11/11/2012 3:56:01 AM
Official NBA 3 game chase for Sunday

ATL +7 vs. Clippers GM1 of 3, open at +6.5, I am seeing +6 and +5.5. Will definitely bet at least +7 unless line moves favorably in morning.

Out for REAL!
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#183
Posted: 11/11/2012 7:17:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 4getaboutit:

Code what u got for the late games? great job today

went to bed, so did not post any more picks. 

Will post NFL later today.
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#184
Posted: 11/11/2012 8:21:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Iaeger:

Angle, thanks for keeping this post going. Been following you guys since the middle of baseball season. Just didn't post. appreciate all the hard work and i hope you guys continue and don't let one bad apple make it hard for all the rest of us who truly appreciate you guys. thanks again.

 
i have been following these guys since the start of MLB season and i'll tell you this guy that is making problems is not the first. there have been hand fulls of guys coming in here slamming shady and semper and angle. and this isnt the first time shady has left the covers site, and went to twitter. its sad that kids can't handle real talent that shady semper and angle have. just keep posting when you can and make that money like you iknow you always will make KEEP UP THE AWESOME WORK YOU 3 .
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#185
Posted: 11/11/2012 8:23:41 AM
Waiting for Newfie plays for NFL sunday
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#186
Posted: 11/11/2012 8:26:01 AM
i have a few leans for today no trends or angles just gut plays

1st Oakland +8.5
2nd Houston +1.5
3rd San Fran +12.5
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#187
Posted: 11/11/2012 8:48:06 AM
Go_Nads- yes a query on NBA teams per quarter ML. The one Jonesin found is that the Blazers have been outscored in the 4Q every game so far. This trend is not coincidense for them their coach does a poor job of rotating out the starters and by the time 4Q hits they are out of gas. Thank you for the help!
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#188
Posted: 11/11/2012 11:10:21 AM

Great work Angle

Here's a little more info to support Angle #1 this comes from Go_Nads research. Thanks Nads

NFC Divisional Road Dogs in 2012
6-1-1 ATS (average line +5.2)
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#189
Posted: 11/11/2012 11:23:31 AM
Proline set #'s for Nba today.
 
+6.5    Atl
+2.5   Mem
 
+6.5 w/l    6-5
+2.5 w/l    8-4-1
 
 
Their were no plays yesterday.
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#190
Posted: 11/11/2012 11:28:59 AM

"I want winners!" Mike Singletary in the famous rant for the 49ers..unfortunately he didn't survive but he made Davis a player...

You want winners, so do I and I was 3-2 ATS last week in the NFL, 10-2 ATS on my Lakers-Clips season chase...

I like Dallas because they could be easily 5-3 and Philly is even more turnover prone and poorly coached and 3-12 ATS at home recently..

Atl-because their D is way better than NO, they won't turn it over, they know they can end NO's season now...you keep saying they're not that good, they keep COVERING

Jets-too many points in Sea-just when you jump on a trend, I jump off and I get a team off a bye vs a team coming up on one and Sea doesn't play blowout football

Bucs-because Doug Martin is one sick boy and SD is the usual fraud waiting to self destruct for good....such a joke organization lead by an owner with no guts...you reap what you sow, bro....

Lakers-Clips-looks like Phil will be back-I still say that won't fix their real issues-Clips look fine but not sure I will play either today-too much football for me-I wanta to really make sure plays and there's more time in the weekdays...but we'll see

GL boys!

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#191
Posted: 11/11/2012 11:40:23 AM
If you are chasing Buff since it officially pushed last week (I lost), play to recover losses only. I see at +13.5 and plus one point would be +14.5. If you wait you may be able to buy one point to 15. It is closing line + 1 point.
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#192
Posted: 11/11/2012 11:50:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChipsNVouchers:

Go_Nads- yes a query on NBA teams per quarter ML. The one Jonesin found is that the Blazers have been outscored in the 4Q every game so far. This trend is not coincidense for them their coach does a poor job of rotating out the starters and by the time 4Q hits they are out of gas. Thank you for the help!

team=Trailblazers and season=2012 and P4<o:P4

That will give you the games that they were outscored in the 4th.
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#193
Posted: 11/11/2012 11:59:42 AM
Go_Nads thank you for the query info. I am sure you have said many times but where do I go to insert this information?
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#194
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:06:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChipsNVouchers:

Go_Nads thank you for the query info. I am sure you have said many times but where do I go to insert this information?

http://killersports.com/nba.py/query?&sid=guest
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#195
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:12:20 PM
You the man. If I find some potential winners I will be sure to post.

Best of luck today Loungers!
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#196
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:13:13 PM

Angle thanks for keeping the tread togeather. Thanks to all with all the information we can use. Vikings are in a skid and expect them to continue. Like the under divisional trend also.

4 team RR

Detroit -3

Det. - Minn U 45 -

Atl. - N.O. O 54

Tenn. +7

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#197
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:25:04 PM
13 pt teaser ties lose
 
Patriots  -1
Bengals  +18 1/2
Panthers  +17
Lions  un 59
 
Good luck
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#198
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:30:42 PM
Here are my plays today.  A little from everyone's threads 

Cincy +5
Balty -6.5 (bought a point)
Under det/min
Jets +5.5
Den -3 (bought a half)

Great job angle on nba yesterday!  Also u other guys who listed Portland 4th qtr trend.  Another play I do regularly is clipp 1st qtr ats.  It's pretty solid.  Alright guys, GL



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#199
Posted: 11/11/2012 12:37:03 PM
Go_Nads that site that Is "Killer" on "Sports" with a dot com is great. Hopefully I can learn the query language to utilize my custom trends.
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Posted: 11/11/2012 12:37:37 PM
Oh, and everything Hoya said.... Lmao!!  I agree with everything you said bro.  We have some good picks today guys.  Lets dodge the Vegas bullet today.  They got killed last week so I am treading lite.

LETS ROLL
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