Posted: 5/9/2012 9:19:21 PM
Originally Posted by vanzack
Did you guys read his reddit thread?
What in there rings false with you?
To be honest, his method is exactly mine - everything he has said there I have said here. If I call him a liar, then I am a liar too.
So much hating with gamblers. His million is your thousand - why is that so hard to believe?
Nothing in the thread rings false with me.
But the big question is this: How did he get off the boards and generate a roll that is adequate for the arbitrage strategy??? Did he go on an incredible run and bet big to get a few hundred grand in the kiddy, or did he hit a 13 team NFL parlay at the Hilton one sunday?
I agree with the overall method, but it seems that in order to employ those strategies you need some substantial cash....so the question I always come back to whether it is in investments, commodities trading, or real estate is where did you get the roll to start with???
He even eludes to this in the thread stating that ( I am paraphrasing) "the real trouble comes when you get up over 50,000...and most of you will never get there"....well, how did he get there? I may have missed it, and I will reread the thread to double check.
In my opinion, there are a few ways to get an adequate stake.
1) Be a true grinder year after year and reinvest all winnings back into the original betting roll. 2) Have some wealthy guys stake you or act as angel investors. 3) Just flat be lucky and run a small sum way up there....if we take a sample of enough gamblers some will be lucky and run there small rolls into large ones....Nassim Taleb outlines this phenomenon in the book Fooled By Randomness when he addresses false realities when concerned with so called "genius" traders and investors.
My guess is that if he is legit, then he is a grinder per se' but maybe not at all...the algorithyms he developed may have showed enough promise to attract some investors.
I would have liked to see more dialogue on the initial stake questions, and I am sorry I missed this Q&A session....I have a few questions of my own that I would have liked to have asked.
Oh well...back to grinding.