link
story behind it
Read every word of that Reddit thread - the guy sounds totally legit to me.
There wasnt one thing in there that set off alarms for me.
Read every word of that Reddit thread - the guy sounds totally legit to me.
There wasnt one thing in there that set off alarms for me.
Read every word of that Reddit thread - the guy sounds totally legit to me.
There wasnt one thing in there that set off alarms for me.
Read every word of that Reddit thread - the guy sounds totally legit to me.
There wasnt one thing in there that set off alarms for me.
his friends may be middles or heads of other offshores transfering funds...
his friends may be middles or heads of other offshores transfering funds...
Agree with Vanzack, seems legit. Mellow_wolf, is this you? You speak with the assertion of a man who wrote the original piece...
Great read, either way...
Agree with Vanzack, seems legit. Mellow_wolf, is this you? You speak with the assertion of a man who wrote the original piece...
Great read, either way...
Quote from the complete link read......
" I would make money on both sides; that's risk-free arbitrage. But consider this: If I bet one side and it drastically moves to another number, why would I lock up pure profit? One of those bets is generating positive expectation; the other is presumably a -EV market price bet. This is where math and stats comes into play; it makes sense to hedge/arb your bets depending on how much your bankroll is, how much your bets are worth, etc. But in the long run, you make more money by just betting the soft (mispriced) side without hedging.
There are two major problems with sportsbetting: The US Government has totally shit on the ability to easily move money online, and you need a lot of money to do well. $5,000 is probably the minimum I'd bet with to make it worth my while.
On smaller props and derivatives, I am always betting the max limit. On full games, I generally bet $2500 - $5000."
This is one of the most relevant things I have read about sports gambling since I started back around 2000. He takes a money manager's approach to gamlbling......much like a mutual fund that produces a slow and steady profit curve with small retracements.
But if you don't have the roll to lay 2500 to 5K out there per game, forget it. Also, if he has nearly 1 Mill in Pinny, he would need other similiarly funded accounts in order to lay the other side of his games off and make is 5-10% rake. That means with upwards of 2-3 million offshore at any given time, he is exposed to a huge systematic risk......but my guess is that if he is legit and has built those kinds of profits, he certainly is smart enough to figure out the ways to insulate himself from losing the cash to DOJ.
Pretty smart article.
Quote from the complete link read......
" I would make money on both sides; that's risk-free arbitrage. But consider this: If I bet one side and it drastically moves to another number, why would I lock up pure profit? One of those bets is generating positive expectation; the other is presumably a -EV market price bet. This is where math and stats comes into play; it makes sense to hedge/arb your bets depending on how much your bankroll is, how much your bets are worth, etc. But in the long run, you make more money by just betting the soft (mispriced) side without hedging.
There are two major problems with sportsbetting: The US Government has totally shit on the ability to easily move money online, and you need a lot of money to do well. $5,000 is probably the minimum I'd bet with to make it worth my while.
On smaller props and derivatives, I am always betting the max limit. On full games, I generally bet $2500 - $5000."
This is one of the most relevant things I have read about sports gambling since I started back around 2000. He takes a money manager's approach to gamlbling......much like a mutual fund that produces a slow and steady profit curve with small retracements.
But if you don't have the roll to lay 2500 to 5K out there per game, forget it. Also, if he has nearly 1 Mill in Pinny, he would need other similiarly funded accounts in order to lay the other side of his games off and make is 5-10% rake. That means with upwards of 2-3 million offshore at any given time, he is exposed to a huge systematic risk......but my guess is that if he is legit and has built those kinds of profits, he certainly is smart enough to figure out the ways to insulate himself from losing the cash to DOJ.
Pretty smart article.
First, with the DOJ shutting down sportsbooks and poker rooms, no one in their right mind would leave 1 million dollars sitting in an offshore account.
Secondly, if he was actually this good, the last thing he would want is added attention.
I put odds on this guy being legitimate at 10%.
First, with the DOJ shutting down sportsbooks and poker rooms, no one in their right mind would leave 1 million dollars sitting in an offshore account.
Secondly, if he was actually this good, the last thing he would want is added attention.
I put odds on this guy being legitimate at 10%.
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