this dudes betting account is over 900k

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Author: [General Discussion] Topic: this dudes betting account is over 900k
wjeremy97 PM wjeremy97
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Posted: 4/23/2012 10:54:50 PM
you be the judge
link

story behind it


DickyR PM DickyR
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Posted: 4/23/2012 11:30:12 PM
Blah Blah Blah.
No real MILLIONAIRE sports bettor is gonna waste his time on that garbage website.
So what he answered a few questions any educated seasoned bettor SHOULD KNOW.

depeche2 PM depeche2
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Posted: 4/23/2012 11:41:48 PM
I don't know whether it's legit, but it certainly could be.  Would not surprise me one bit.  Especially if he doesn't live in the US.  What he says is spot on and is very possible if the player has a wide selection of well paying books, a large bankroll and lax bookmakers.
Fishscale PM Fishscale
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Posted: 4/24/2012 7:09:10 AM
Well the problem with what he's talking about is that he claims most of his money comes from "steam plays," although I've heard about a half dozen definitions of what a steam play actually is, in this particular example, he's talking about taking the best number on a moneyline on the plus side and waiting for the favorite side to come up and bet both sides, creating a small profit.  


While it's a very easy way to be guaranteed profit, you need to put up a lot to make a little in order to make this worthwhile.  


Now in a fair world, you could have your bankroll of lets say 100,000 or even 1,000,000 dollars and run around to your different accounts taking the best lines on both sides and make tens of thousands off of half a mil each day.  Sounds like free money, right?  


First off, there are only a handful of games to take advantage of per day that would qualify, so there's already a supply vs demand factor working against you. 


Another deal breaker is most books don't allow these types of players and if they catch you doing it your wagers will be significantly reduced at the bare minimum.  


So you would need to hire people to act as beards and have multiple people placing bets for you to disguise your activity.  


And this isn't even factoring in that there are only a handful of legit sportsbooks that'll pay out a substantial amount of money.  The others, like Shitbook.com operating out of New Guinea, will of course claim to, but when it comes time to make a withdraw of let's say 10k or more, you'll most likely run into all sorts of problems.  You'll basically have to beg for your money.   


So you would have to slowly bleed it out of the smaller books, but once they noticed what was going on, they can make up any excuse they want to freeze your account, and at the very least, they would pay you and tell you to get lost.  


In order to achieve this, you would basically have to set up a very highly organized operation that involved an army of flunkies who at any given time could either A) rip you off or B) sell you out.  


I think a much better investment would be taking that half a mil and investing in a medium return security.  You could just let it sit there, know that it's insured and not have all the stress of running a gambling enterprise.



Or you could take that half a mil and go to Vegas and try that "bet on red until it hits while doubling" scheme I've heard so many idiots talk about.


jmw59 PM jmw59
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Posted: 4/24/2012 7:14:42 AM
dunno if penny would let it get that high
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 4/24/2012 10:10:15 AM
Haralabob thinks its BS, I tend to trust that guy
gamble04 PM gamble04
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Posted: 4/24/2012 10:28:38 AM
I dont think its that far off for the guy to be a profesional gambler.
CleeK111 PM CleeK111
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Posted: 4/24/2012 11:58:36 AM
I read that he says most of his money being in account comes from transfers from friends on pinny and from blackjack.... one thought I had was that if he was getting thousands from friends transferred then wouldnt that raise suspicion and put both parties on observation and possible hold on account?

limits on most games are what like 2500 - 5000 ? and props 1000 - 2500 ?  1 mil bankroll seems suitable for bankroll management, but still very possible to be an altered image as he did suggest himself at beginning.

jmilrod PM jmilrod
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Posted: 4/24/2012 2:46:48 PM
that must be bigbills acct.
mainmanmainman2 PM mainmanmainman2
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Posted: 5/4/2012 4:45:12 PM
heard chip reese, the late chip reese would make a mil+/year from betting... and that was in the 90s.
I-Got-5-On-It PM I-Got-5-On-It
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Posted: 5/4/2012 4:47:39 PM
even though there's not much chance of it happening, but imagine if Pinny went under and you ended up losing close to a mil  
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 5/4/2012 5:57:05 PM

Read every word of that Reddit thread - the guy sounds totally legit to me.

There wasnt one thing in there that set off alarms for me.

mellow_wolf PM mellow_wolf
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Posted: 5/4/2012 6:20:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Read every word of that Reddit thread - the guy sounds totally legit to me.

There wasnt one thing in there that set off alarms for me.


You are correct in your assertion. 

ocd PM ocd
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Posted: 5/4/2012 7:32:44 PM

sounded clean.

knowledge was legit.

 

 

 

 

 

ocd PM ocd
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Posted: 5/4/2012 7:34:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CleeK111:

I read that he says most of his money being in account comes from transfers from friends on pinny and from blackjack.... one thought I had was that if he was getting thousands from friends transferred then wouldnt that raise suspicion and put both parties on observation and possible hold on account?

limits on most games are what like 2500 - 5000 ? and props 1000 - 2500 ?  1 mil bankroll seems suitable for bankroll management, but still very possible to be an altered image as he did suggest himself at beginning.

his friends may be middles or heads of other offshores transfering funds...

 

pjrez PM pjrez
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Posted: 5/4/2012 7:51:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CleeK111:

I read that he says most of his money being in account comes from transfers from friends on pinny and from blackjack.... one thought I had was that if he was getting thousands from friends transferred then wouldnt that raise suspicion and put both parties on observation and possible hold on account?

limits on most games are what like 2500 - 5000 ? and props 1000 - 2500 ?  1 mil bankroll seems suitable for bankroll management, but still very possible to be an altered image as he did suggest himself at beginning.


Pinnys limits are much higher, or at least they used to be when they were in the US.  Vanzack could answer better, but I don't think it was out of the question to have limits on the major sports above 20k.
TheGoldenGoose PM TheGoldenGoose
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Posted: 5/4/2012 9:03:20 PM

betting $5k with a $1m bankroll

"when you photoshop an extra 0 into your pin balance don't forget to increase your 'general bet size' accordingly"

BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA
Consilience PM Consilience
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Posted: 5/6/2012 5:21:49 AM

Agree with Vanzack, seems legit. Mellow_wolf, is this you? You speak with the assertion of a man who wrote the original piece...

Great read, either way...

Consilience PM Consilience
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Posted: 5/6/2012 6:09:48 AM
I've got 500,000 k in Pinny and now it seems barely worthwhile...
Kelly_Slater PM Kelly_Slater
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Posted: 5/7/2012 10:31:40 PM
op wanna buy a porsche for 3 grand?


JonnyTwoTime PM JonnyTwoTime
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Posted: 5/7/2012 11:03:03 PM
I seen this a couple times now, I find it funny a lot of the people that gamble and read this all say no way or not possible. Makes me wonder if they don't think it's possible why the hell are they gambling?
Kelly_Slater PM Kelly_Slater
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Posted: 5/8/2012 12:04:15 AM
over $9,000 in 1 account would be beyond stupid nowadays

To think you are asking me to believe there is almost a million dollars in 1 account is a joke. 

lets say the account is real.... he wont even see 1/2 of that money.
bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/8/2012 1:28:31 AM

Quote from the complete link read......

" I would make money on both sides; that's risk-free arbitrage. But consider this: If I bet one side and it drastically moves to another number, why would I lock up pure profit? One of those bets is generating positive expectation; the other is presumably a -EV market price bet. This is where math and stats comes into play; it makes sense to hedge/arb your bets depending on how much your bankroll is, how much your bets are worth, etc. But in the long run, you make more money by just betting the soft (mispriced) side without hedging.

There are two major problems with sportsbetting: The US Government has totally garbage on the ability to easily move money online, and you need a lot of money to do well. $5,000 is probably the minimum I'd bet with to make it worth my while.

On smaller props and derivatives, I am always betting the max limit. On full games, I generally bet $2500 - $5000."

 

This is one of the most relevant things I have read about sports gambling since I started back around 2000.  He takes a money manager's approach to gamlbling......much like a mutual fund that produces a slow and steady profit curve with small retracements.

But if you don't have the roll to lay 2500 to 5K out there per game, forget it.  Also, if he has nearly 1 Mill in Pinny, he would need other similiarly funded accounts in order to lay the other side of his games off and make is 5-10% rake. That means with upwards of 2-3 million offshore at any given time, he is exposed to a huge systematic risk......but my guess is that if he is legit and has built those kinds of profits, he certainly is smart enough to figure out the ways to insulate himself from losing the cash to DOJ.

Pretty smart article.

wizardofroz PM wizardofroz
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Posted: 5/8/2012 4:54:38 AM

First, with the DOJ shutting down sportsbooks and poker rooms, no one in their right mind would leave 1 million dollars sitting in an offshore account. 

Secondly, if he was actually this good, the last thing he would want is added attention. 

I put odds on this guy being legitimate at 10%. 

TheTotalHunter PM TheTotalHunter
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Posted: 5/9/2012 11:55:16 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Consilience:

I've got 500,000 k in Pinny and now it seems barely worthwhile...

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