Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Saad Makes Bettors Happy

Prop bet #1: Giroux conquered by Canes

Kicking off the evening portion of Sunday’s NHL slate is an Eastern Conference tilt with the Ottawa Senators hosting the Carolina Hurricanes. Carolina is one of the favorites in the Stanley Cup odds as it boasts one of the best two-way lineups in the league.

Entering this matchup, it ranks in the Top 4 of the league in goals allowed per game and shots allowed on goal per game. These rankings are a product of two variables.

First, the Hurricanes suppress high danger scoring chances at an elite level. They rank first in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Second, the goaltending has been strong since Frederik Andersen returned to the lineup, and he is once again projected to start on Sunday. Through nine appearances in the crease this season, Andersen is 7-1 with a .913 SV% and 2.19 GAA.

That brings us to the Claude Giroux odds, and he will be a part of an offense that is likely to struggle against the Canes. Giroux enters this contest in poor form, failing to record a point in seven of his past 10 games.

He has also failed to record a point in four of his past seven games against Carolina.

Claude Giroux prop: Under 0.5 points (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Buch' of goals

Roughly an hour after that game kicks off, Sunday’s NHL nightcap is a Western Conference tilt with the St. Louis Blues hosting the Anaheim Ducks. Simply put, Anaheim is one of the worst defensive teams in the league as it ranks 31st in goals allowed per game and 28th in shots on goal allowed per game. Like Carolina, these rankings are the product of two variables, albeit on the other end of the spectrum.

The Ducks rank 27th in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Not only do they bleed high-danger scoring chances at even strength, but they are even worse in terms of special teams as they rank last in penalty minutes taken per game and 30th in penalty kill percentage.

That gives Blues skaters like Pavel Buchnevich ample opportunities to find the back of the net. Buchnevich leads St. Louis in both goals and power play goals entering this matchup.

He has also fared well against Anaheim over the past couple of years, scoring four goals across the past five meetings.

Pavel Buchnevich prop: Anytime goal (+185 at Bet99 – 0.5 units)

Prop bet #3: Saad but true

My thinking here is simple: I am fairly confident that at least one of Brandon Saad or Buchnevich will score against the Ducks, which guarantees a profit. If both score, all the better.

Backing up Anaheim’s poor blue line is goaltender John Gibson, who has struggled to deal with the product in front of him. Through 42 appearances in the crease this season, Gibson is 13-23-2 with a fade-worthy .892 SV% and 3.38 GAA.

He has now allowed a whopping six goals in four of his past six starts. Meanwhile, Saad enters this contest in good form with three goals over his past five games.

Saad is a threat on the power play, but all three of those goals came at even-strength, which is a testament to his ability to make plays without an advantage. If Gibson is to give up six goals for the fourth straight game, then I find it hard to believe that Saad won’t be involved.

Brandon Saad prop: Anytime goal (+265 at Bet99 – 0.5 units)