The Winnipeg Jets can’t get a save from Connor Hellebuyck, haven’t been able to match the Colorado Avalanche's offensive output through four games, and are one loss away from being eliminated from the playoffs.
With such little value in the Avs’ player props, my Avalanche vs. Jets predictions are simplifying matters. Don't overthink it. These teams have shown us who they are.
I break down tonight's NHL odds and offer my best NHL picks for Tuesday, April 30.
Avalanche vs Jets prediction
My best bet
Avalanche team total Over 3.5 (+100 at SIA)
My analysis
The Colorado Avalanche have scored at least five goals in each game this series and have a great chance to do it again tonight despite the venue change. Colorado is paying even money for four or more goals tonight and considering the play of Connor Hellebuyck and the loss of defenseman Brenden Dillon, it’s my favorite bet in Game 5.
Hellebuyck was pulled in his last start and currently owns a 5.22 GAA with a .870 save percentage in the playoffs. He is playing with no confidence and is facing a well-oiled offense that ranks first in expected goal percentage at all strengths in the postseason while pacing all 16 playoff teams in high-danger goals per game and shots on goal differential. Hellebuyck has not been good, but the Winnipeg Jets are giving up a lot of quality scoring opportunities and that trend will continue tonight.
Top-four defenseman Brenden Dillon will miss tonight. He plays over 20 minutes a night, blocks shots, and hits. He is a massive loss for a team that is chasing the puck in their own end.
The Winnipeg special teams have also made zero adjustments as the Avs’ power play has scored multiple goals in three of the four games.
Artturi Lehkonen's play has given tonight’s visitors a reliable second-line scoring option as the role player has more goals in the series than the entire Jets team over the last two games. With Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin filling the box score, the last change doesn’t mean as much vs. a team I thought was going to be very top-heavy coming into the playoffs.
Winnipeg has no answers and Hellebuyck’s confidence is shot. Colorado has done what it wants all series and tonight will be no different. Winnipeg’s only chance tonight is to score 4+ goals but even if it does, Colorado will be right there.
There is also a chance that Colorado has empty-net chances even up 3-0 as bettors saw last night in the Florida series.
Avalanche vs Jets same-game parlay (SGP)
Avalanche team total Over 3.5
Both teams to score in the first period
The Colorado offense can't be stopped and everything points to them being able to replicate the series' success again tonight in Winnipeg. Winnipeg has to come out strong with their season on the line. Both teams have scored in the first period in half of the games so far and with the Jets sporting a thinner blueline, this should be a wide-open game. I do see the Colorado offense outlasting Winnipeg's, which has struggled to score late in three straight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Avalanche vs Jets odds
Avalanche vs Jets live odds
Avalanche vs Jets opening odds
- Puck line: Colorado -1.5 (+185) | Winnipeg +1.5 (-225)
- Moneyline: Colorado -120 | Winnipeg +100
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-120) | Under 6.5 (+100)
Avalanche vs Jets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Tonight's lines are right on par with how Game 2 in Winnipeg closed. Colorado closed as a -120 favorite in both Games 1 and 2 while the total has sat at 6.5 since Game 2.
- Hellebuyck has a 5.22 GAA and a .870 save percentage through four games while Colorado's Alex Georgiev has won three straight and owns a 3.04 GAA with a .885 SV%, which is mostly due to allowing seven goals in Game 1.
- Winnipeg was riding a nine-game winning streak heading into Game 2 and had won four straight meetings but the Avs have dominated this series in the box score and with the metrics. Looking at advanced metrics, this is one of the most one-sided series in Round 1.
- Winnipeg will be without Dillon and Vladislav Namestnikov. Colorado is still missing Jonathan Drouin but his role has been filled well with the play of Nichushkin and Lehkonen.
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Avalanche vs Jets trend
The Colorado Avalanche have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.10 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Jets.
Avalanche vs Jets game info
| Location: | Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, CBC |
Avalanche vs Jets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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