Best NBA Player Props Today: Aldama Puts in Work Against Kings

Prop bet #1: Buckets for Bogdanovic

I debated for a while with this prop, considering whether I wanted to bet on Bogdan Bogdanovic's odds or Deandre Hunter's, but I'm going to roll with Bogdanovic.

Bogdanovic missed Friday's game against the Jazz with an illness, and he left Sunday's game early against the Clippers. There's a chance this bet gets voided and Bogdanovic sits, but that's fine because you'll just get your money back. The Atlanta Hawks were also up by 20+ points against the Clippers, so if Bogy was under the weather, it wasn't worth him coming back in the game in the final seven minutes.

The reason I was debating between Hunter and Bogdanovic is Hunter is trading at 15.5 points, but when Bogdanovic sat on Friday, Hunter closed at 20.5. There's an opportunity to jump in front of a great price with Hunter, but I fear he won't see the 30+ minutes he's been playing off the bench if Bogdanovic does play.

I wouldn't say I prefer Hunter whether Bogdanovic is in or out because, although Hunter has seen minutes off the bench, Atlanta was also missing Jalen Johnson in some of those games.

Johnson just returned from injury, and I think this really helps Bogdanovic's points prop. Bogdan can now be more of a shooter than a creator, and against the Lakers, we could see Dejounte Murray and Johnson create a lot of open looks for him.

Bogdanovic has struggled in his last two games, going Under his points total in both, but as I said, he's also battling an illness. For someone trading at 15.5 points, the field goal attempts are there in both games he went Under with him taking 29 field goal attempts.

Bogdanovic is projected to have 17.9 points on Monday against the Lakers, which means we can price the Over 15.5 points at -160, but it is available at BetMGM at -120.

Bogdan Bogdanovic prop: Over 15.5 points (-120 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Assists for Ayton

Deandre Ayton has been on a tear over his last five games for the Portland Trail Blazers, averaging 27.2 points per game. Not only is Ayton heavily involved in the offense, but head coach Chauncey Billups is also playing Ayton 38.2 minutes per game this month — much higher than his season average of 32.

You'd think I'd be going after Ayton's points prop here, but it's his assists prop that has me more intrigued because of the pricing. Deandre Ayton's odds for his points prop have undergone a massive move because of this heater from 13.5 points to 19.5 points. At 19.5 points, there's nothing there for me, but we can leverage the increased minutes and higher usage for him to register more assists.

Ayton has a usage percentage of 19.8%, but over these last five games his usage percentage is up to 26.1%. That's a big jump and what it means is a lot more touches on offense. 

If you don't have the ball, you can't get assists, and with Ayton facing the Chicago Bulls on Monday, why would they not continue to give him a ton of touches on offense? Nikola Vucevic isn't known for his defense by any means, and he's a matchup they'll want to continue to attack.

Ayton is projected to have two dimes against Chicago on Monday, which means we can price the Over 1.5 assists at -135, but it is available at bet365 at +110. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 21%.

Deandre Ayton prop: Over 1.5 assists (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: All in on Aldama 

I'm not going to lie to you, I was watching film for a Harrison Barnes assists prop against the Memphis Grizzlies when this Santi Aldama points prop caught my eye. Once I found a sportsbook trading this total at 9.5 points, I bet on Santi Aldama's odds.

When the Sacramento Kings played the Grizzlies on January 29, the Kings were attempting to have Harrison Barnes be the primary defender on Jaren Jackson Jr. This gave them more foot speed on the perimeter and also allowed for Domantas Sabonis to then be the help defender when Jackson drove. What this did was open up a ton of open shots for Aldama, but it gets even better.

In their previous meeting on January 29, Luke Kennard and Desmond Bane were both out for the Grizzlies. If Sacramento is going to send help defense towards Jackson, which shooter do you think they will leave open, Kennard, Bane, or Aldama?

Having Kennard and Bane back in the lineup for the Grizzlies also helps Aldama's points prop because they should be able to create open shots for him. Both Kennard and Bane will find Aldama on a rotating defense as a cutter, and there is no rim protection — especially if Sabonis is helping.

Aldama is projected to have 12.1 points on Monday against the Kings, which allows us to price the Over 9.5 points at -184, but it is available at PointsBet at -125.

Santi Aldama prop: Over 9.5 points (-125 at PointsBet)