Japanese import Shota Imanaga will try to build on a strong start to his MLB career as he gets the start for the Chicago Cubs against the New York Mets tonight.
The Cubs (18-12) are favored in the MLB odds over the Mets (15-14) after the teams have split the first two games of their four-game series.
Imanaga will face off against fellow rookie Jose Butto in tonight's Cuvbs vs. Mets predictions. We’ll break down the matchup in our free MLB picks for May 1.
Cubs vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Cubs -1.5 (+140 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Shota Imanaga was known as “The Throwing Philosopher” in Japan, where he was a two-time NPB All-Star. He also picked up a gold medal in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, starting Japan’s 3-2 win over the United States. While he didn’t come over with the hype of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Chicago Cubs knew they were getting a solid MLB-quality starter in the 30-year-old Imanaga.
So far, the rookie has surpassed all expectations. In five starts, Imanaga has put up a 4-0 record with a 0.98 ERA while striking out 28 batters in 27 2/3 innings. With a 9.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.795 WHIP, Imanaga looks to be doing everything necessary for sustained major league success.
Tonight, Imanaga will start against a more traditional rookie in New York Mets right-hander Jose Butto. The 26-year-old has pitched well after his short stint in the majors last year, having compiled a 2.86 ERA over his first four starts this season. Butto has only one weakness at this early point in his career: he struggles with his control, walking 4.9 hitters per nine innings.
Butto can’t afford to give free runners to the Cubs. Chicago is averaging 4.97 runs per game, ranking seventh in the majors. Even with Seiya Suzuki temporarily sidelined, the Cubs have plenty of hitters off to strong starts this year. Those include Michael Busch (.266, 6 HR) and Mike Tauchman (.307, 3 HR), both of whom are left-handed and boast positive platoon splits against right-handed pitching.
After a slow start, the Mets rebounded offensively and now have a lineup that’s putting up league-average numbers. However, New York’s attack has cooled down a bit over the last couple of weeks, and while the scoring drought is nothing like the team faced in early April, there’s been a noticeable downturn. The Mets are averaging just 2.89 runs over their last nine games, and have gone just 3-6 over that span.
With Imanaga mowing down hitters, this will be a tough matchup for the Mets. And while Butto should keep them in the game for a while, his control issues will cost him again a capable Cubs lineup.
I’m taking Chicago to not only win but cover the run line in tonight’s game.
Cubs vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs -1.5
Under 7.5
Shota Imanaga 4+ strikeouts
The Cubs are the clear favorite today in what should be a pitcher’s duel. I’m throwing in a bet on the Under for my same-game parlay, as these teams have easily hit the Under in the first two games of this series.
I’m also taking Imanaga to pick up at least four strikeouts. The Mets aren’t a team with a lot of swings and misses in the lineup, but Imanaga has struck out at least four batters in four of his first five MLB starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Mets odds
Cubs vs Mets live odds
Cubs vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+150) | New York +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Chicago -115 | New York -105
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Cubs vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Chicago opened tonight’s game as a -115 favorite. The best moneyline available as of noon is Cubs -130, with +115 available on the Mets.
- The Mets have won just over one unit on the moneyline this year, while the Cubs have earned nearly eight units for backers this season.
- The total for this game opened at 7.5 runs, which remains the consensus O/U. The Over is a slight underdog at -105, though you can find the Under at -110.
- The Under has a 16-13 advantage when Chicago plays this season, while it also holds the 15-14 edge in New York’s games.
Cubs vs Mets trend
The Cubs are 5-0 on the run line in Imanaga’s five starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets
Cubs vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
MARQ, SNY
|
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (4-0, 0.98 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Butto (0-1, 2.86 ERA) |
Cubs vs Mets latest injuries
Cubs vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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