A loss is a series loss of 3 straight games. You don't scrap a line after the 3rd game loss...quite the opposite...we get our money back by continuing with that line
I would pick up the Boston play on the line left by the detroit loss and here is how I would split my bet on game 1. Since Boston is -200 I am betting 70% of my wager on Boston -200 and 30% on Boston -1.5 runs and I'll play this EXACTLY the way I should have played DETROIT with no hesitations. If Boston wins by 1 I will break even and walk away. I will not add or subtract from my line I will just walk away even.
Now as for the sweep portion of the system the only play tomorrow is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Even though they are sub 500 they are still a play. I am playing 65% of my wager on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs - 150 (approx line) and 35% of my wager on Pittsburgh +135. If Pittsburgh loses by 1 I will break even and that "series" will be over for me.
The Stugots - Washington / Baltimore is not a play...
- I like Tampa and they almost made the cut for my subscribers as they are very close to qualifying on a mathmatical formula but Since Neither Kazmir or Shileds is going I passed, however, I personally am still debating on whether I'm going to play them because they are significantly better than Pitt....
- Arizona was a near qualifier as well but No owings, no webb and Detroit is a scary team with as much as they've lost lately but again they just missed the cut.
- San Diego is just 2 bad teams and could go either way and I wouldn't touch.
By the way if you are looking for sweeps don't go back to 2007. Only if a team has swept the other THIS YEAR.
Now before you ask about the mathmatical formula or if someone is going to ask...that's not been posted on this thread or anywhere. I worked with a stats team and found a formula that produces picks to be played in the exact same way as the sweep chase selections. I can't give the formula but since I F'd up the Detroit Series for some of you I will tell you this....
You already have Boston and Pittsburgh, another one that my people are playing is Cleveland.
You'll use Boston on line 1, the line left by detroit and then set up 2 new lines....line 2 and 3 and start fresh with Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
A loss is a series loss of 3 straight games. You don't scrap a line after the 3rd game loss...quite the opposite...we get our money back by continuing with that line
I would pick up the Boston play on the line left by the detroit loss and here is how I would split my bet on game 1. Since Boston is -200 I am betting 70% of my wager on Boston -200 and 30% on Boston -1.5 runs and I'll play this EXACTLY the way I should have played DETROIT with no hesitations. If Boston wins by 1 I will break even and walk away. I will not add or subtract from my line I will just walk away even.
Now as for the sweep portion of the system the only play tomorrow is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Even though they are sub 500 they are still a play. I am playing 65% of my wager on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs - 150 (approx line) and 35% of my wager on Pittsburgh +135. If Pittsburgh loses by 1 I will break even and that "series" will be over for me.
The Stugots - Washington / Baltimore is not a play...
- I like Tampa and they almost made the cut for my subscribers as they are very close to qualifying on a mathmatical formula but Since Neither Kazmir or Shileds is going I passed, however, I personally am still debating on whether I'm going to play them because they are significantly better than Pitt....
- Arizona was a near qualifier as well but No owings, no webb and Detroit is a scary team with as much as they've lost lately but again they just missed the cut.
- San Diego is just 2 bad teams and could go either way and I wouldn't touch.
By the way if you are looking for sweeps don't go back to 2007. Only if a team has swept the other THIS YEAR.
Now before you ask about the mathmatical formula or if someone is going to ask...that's not been posted on this thread or anywhere. I worked with a stats team and found a formula that produces picks to be played in the exact same way as the sweep chase selections. I can't give the formula but since I F'd up the Detroit Series for some of you I will tell you this....
You already have Boston and Pittsburgh, another one that my people are playing is Cleveland.
You'll use Boston on line 1, the line left by detroit and then set up 2 new lines....line 2 and 3 and start fresh with Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
I am playing 65% of my wager on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs - 150 (approx line) and 35% of my wager on Pittsburgh +135. If Pittsburgh loses by 1 I will break even and that "series" will be over for me.
First off psic, thanks a lot for the additional Cleveland play today.
I have a question though. You're splitting up your Pirates bet, whereas in the past we have just bet the ML on underdogs. Are you planning on splitting up your bets on dogs from now on? Or is this just a personal decision you're making on Pittsburgh?
I am playing 65% of my wager on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs - 150 (approx line) and 35% of my wager on Pittsburgh +135. If Pittsburgh loses by 1 I will break even and that "series" will be over for me.
First off psic, thanks a lot for the additional Cleveland play today.
I have a question though. You're splitting up your Pirates bet, whereas in the past we have just bet the ML on underdogs. Are you planning on splitting up your bets on dogs from now on? Or is this just a personal decision you're making on Pittsburgh?
Lost yesterday with the Tigers. Hopefully we'll have a good weekend to get that money back though.
Before I get to the plays, just wanted to respond to the person that was asking about wins and losses. When psic has quoted his wins and losses I believe he is talking about series wins and losses. When I decided what to keep track of I decided to go with straight up wins and losses because I felt there was a grey area in series wins and losses, like what if you bet Pittsburgh +1.5 to get your money back and then Pittsburgh ML with the rest of your bet (as we are today). If Pittsburgh loses by 1 that series is over, but is it a loss? I would assume it's a tie. Also, if you lose game 1 and then that happens in game 2 of a series, I guess you lost money on the series, but it's not really a loss in the 3-game chase sense of the word loss (because you only lost one game). Anyway, in order to avoid all this confusion I have just been recording money wins/losses and regular wins/losses. If we run into a situation where we simply make our money back on a game (like the Pitt +1.5 could today) then I will call it a tie.
Currently:
Money: -$36.70
Record: 4-5
Lines: 10/10 (left over from LAD)
10/10/10/10/20/30/40 (left over from Detroit)
As psic suggested, I'll take the line from Detroit and bring it to the Boston series. Also, as he suggested I'm going to play Pittsburgh using both the RL and ML. I played Cleveland only using the ML though. Hopefully psic comes on to explain if the Pittsburgh play (RL and ML for dogs) is a once in a while thing or if he is planning on doing this from now on. I believe he talked about doing this in the past, but said that he no longer does it.
Lost yesterday with the Tigers. Hopefully we'll have a good weekend to get that money back though.
Before I get to the plays, just wanted to respond to the person that was asking about wins and losses. When psic has quoted his wins and losses I believe he is talking about series wins and losses. When I decided what to keep track of I decided to go with straight up wins and losses because I felt there was a grey area in series wins and losses, like what if you bet Pittsburgh +1.5 to get your money back and then Pittsburgh ML with the rest of your bet (as we are today). If Pittsburgh loses by 1 that series is over, but is it a loss? I would assume it's a tie. Also, if you lose game 1 and then that happens in game 2 of a series, I guess you lost money on the series, but it's not really a loss in the 3-game chase sense of the word loss (because you only lost one game). Anyway, in order to avoid all this confusion I have just been recording money wins/losses and regular wins/losses. If we run into a situation where we simply make our money back on a game (like the Pitt +1.5 could today) then I will call it a tie.
Currently:
Money: -$36.70
Record: 4-5
Lines: 10/10 (left over from LAD)
10/10/10/10/20/30/40 (left over from Detroit)
As psic suggested, I'll take the line from Detroit and bring it to the Boston series. Also, as he suggested I'm going to play Pittsburgh using both the RL and ML. I played Cleveland only using the ML though. Hopefully psic comes on to explain if the Pittsburgh play (RL and ML for dogs) is a once in a while thing or if he is planning on doing this from now on. I believe he talked about doing this in the past, but said that he no longer does it.
The strategy for underdogs is something that I am going to employ from this point on. I will split my wager accordingly so that if the team loses by 1 run I will break even and the series is over. I want to set these rules so there is no confusion. Most of the time it will not come into play and the extra money we pick up by using part of our bet on th e moneyline will more than outweigh the occasional tie.
Keeping track of the overall wins and losses is fine. after a while people will see that the game wins and losses will be meaningless. what will matter is the +/- Units or dollars.
The strategy for underdogs is something that I am going to employ from this point on. I will split my wager accordingly so that if the team loses by 1 run I will break even and the series is over. I want to set these rules so there is no confusion. Most of the time it will not come into play and the extra money we pick up by using part of our bet on th e moneyline will more than outweigh the occasional tie.
Keeping track of the overall wins and losses is fine. after a while people will see that the game wins and losses will be meaningless. what will matter is the +/- Units or dollars.
First, rule number 1...protect your bankroll. There have been several series where I've told my people to cut bait after game 1 so if you don't like Pitt, just take your 1 unit loss. If you're going to stay with it don't bother splitting your money they are such a big dog just take the +1.5
My master plan for today was to win the other 3 after pitt went down and just call it a weekend. +2 units.
As for Cleveland, I won't split the money...at an even matchup I'll just take the +103
As for Boston....If Dice K is going in game 1 do the split of money line and -1.5 runs I'm not sure if he is in game 1 or 2 yet
Livan, I split my money if it makes sense...I'm not going to take +1.5 runs on a team like Clevland and lay 2-1. I don't really have a hard and fast rule but closely matched games -120 or so and under I'll just take my team with no split. I'll let everyone know how i'm handling those situations. On big fav's I always split the money to try and maximize the profit.
I'm more mad that I didn't go down one more qualifier to Tampa Bay. The AL is so much better than the NL which brings me too.....
People will ask about Florida and Oakand as both have lost 4 in a row. I am not playing either....The 4 games is a guideline.......I won't play florida because I don't believe they are anywhere as good as their record and they face Bannister and Greinke who get it done in the AL....then you go to the NL park to pitch against NO DH and weak 8 hitters and the pitchers. Oakland is a possibility until you see Hudson has an 0.78 ERA in his last 3.....no thanks.
I may pick them up if they both lose tomorrow....I'll let everyone know. I want less quantity and more quality.
First, rule number 1...protect your bankroll. There have been several series where I've told my people to cut bait after game 1 so if you don't like Pitt, just take your 1 unit loss. If you're going to stay with it don't bother splitting your money they are such a big dog just take the +1.5
My master plan for today was to win the other 3 after pitt went down and just call it a weekend. +2 units.
As for Cleveland, I won't split the money...at an even matchup I'll just take the +103
As for Boston....If Dice K is going in game 1 do the split of money line and -1.5 runs I'm not sure if he is in game 1 or 2 yet
Livan, I split my money if it makes sense...I'm not going to take +1.5 runs on a team like Clevland and lay 2-1. I don't really have a hard and fast rule but closely matched games -120 or so and under I'll just take my team with no split. I'll let everyone know how i'm handling those situations. On big fav's I always split the money to try and maximize the profit.
I'm more mad that I didn't go down one more qualifier to Tampa Bay. The AL is so much better than the NL which brings me too.....
People will ask about Florida and Oakand as both have lost 4 in a row. I am not playing either....The 4 games is a guideline.......I won't play florida because I don't believe they are anywhere as good as their record and they face Bannister and Greinke who get it done in the AL....then you go to the NL park to pitch against NO DH and weak 8 hitters and the pitchers. Oakland is a possibility until you see Hudson has an 0.78 ERA in his last 3.....no thanks.
I may pick them up if they both lose tomorrow....I'll let everyone know. I want less quantity and more quality.
First, rule number 1...protect your bankroll. There have been several series where I've told my people to cut bait after game 1 so if you don't like Pitt, just take your 1 unit loss. If you're going to stay with it don't bother splitting your money they are such a big dog just take the +1.5
My master plan for today was to win the other 3 after pitt went down and just call it a weekend. +2 units.
As for Cleveland, I won't split the money...at an even matchup I'll just take the +103
As for Boston....If Dice K is going in game 1 do the split of money line and -1.5 runs I'm not sure if he is in game 1 or 2 yet
Livan, I split my money if it makes sense...I'm not going to take +1.5 runs on a team like Clevland and lay 2-1. I don't really have a hard and fast rule but closely matched games -120 or so and under I'll just take my team with no split. I'll let everyone know how i'm handling those situations. On big fav's I always split the money to try and maximize the profit.
I'm more mad that I didn't go down one more qualifier to Tampa Bay. The AL is so much better than the NL which brings me too.....
People will ask about Florida and Oakand as both have lost 4 in a row. I am not playing either....The 4 games is a guideline.......I won't play florida because I don't believe they are anywhere as good as their record and they face Bannister and Greinke who get it done in the AL....then you go to the NL park to pitch against NO DH and weak 8 hitters and the pitchers. Oakland is a possibility until you see Hudson has an 0.78 ERA in his last 3.....no thanks.
I may pick them up if they both lose tomorrow....I'll let everyone know. I want less quantity and more quality.
"less quantity and more quality", .........music to my ears.
First, rule number 1...protect your bankroll. There have been several series where I've told my people to cut bait after game 1 so if you don't like Pitt, just take your 1 unit loss. If you're going to stay with it don't bother splitting your money they are such a big dog just take the +1.5
My master plan for today was to win the other 3 after pitt went down and just call it a weekend. +2 units.
As for Cleveland, I won't split the money...at an even matchup I'll just take the +103
As for Boston....If Dice K is going in game 1 do the split of money line and -1.5 runs I'm not sure if he is in game 1 or 2 yet
Livan, I split my money if it makes sense...I'm not going to take +1.5 runs on a team like Clevland and lay 2-1. I don't really have a hard and fast rule but closely matched games -120 or so and under I'll just take my team with no split. I'll let everyone know how i'm handling those situations. On big fav's I always split the money to try and maximize the profit.
I'm more mad that I didn't go down one more qualifier to Tampa Bay. The AL is so much better than the NL which brings me too.....
People will ask about Florida and Oakand as both have lost 4 in a row. I am not playing either....The 4 games is a guideline.......I won't play florida because I don't believe they are anywhere as good as their record and they face Bannister and Greinke who get it done in the AL....then you go to the NL park to pitch against NO DH and weak 8 hitters and the pitchers. Oakland is a possibility until you see Hudson has an 0.78 ERA in his last 3.....no thanks.
I may pick them up if they both lose tomorrow....I'll let everyone know. I want less quantity and more quality.
"less quantity and more quality", .........music to my ears.
Baseball is a strange sport sometimes. Crazy things happen. Let's suppose you bet $50 yesterday on Pittsburgh. They are such a big dog today that instead of bailing you could take at least a shot of getting your money back. You could make just a $20 bet and at +220 or +230 you would win your $50 back and walk away clean.
It's not impossible to think that Pitt could get to Zambrano but I realize how well the Cubs are playing....this is just a suggestion where a small amount of money could get you your money back. If Pitt loses, at least you didn't double up to $100 or anything like that.
Baseball is a strange sport sometimes. Crazy things happen. Let's suppose you bet $50 yesterday on Pittsburgh. They are such a big dog today that instead of bailing you could take at least a shot of getting your money back. You could make just a $20 bet and at +220 or +230 you would win your $50 back and walk away clean.
It's not impossible to think that Pitt could get to Zambrano but I realize how well the Cubs are playing....this is just a suggestion where a small amount of money could get you your money back. If Pitt loses, at least you didn't double up to $100 or anything like that.
Another rough day, going 0-2. It seems people are all over the map on what plays to make today. Cleveland lost by 1 last night, so they shouldn't be a play today. I gambled chasing Detroit after they lost by 1 run and ended up getting burnt. Even though I'm tempted to go after that again, I don't want to make the same mistake twice. A lot of people are also jumping off the Pittsburgh chase. I know Zambrano is tough to beat and that Chicago has been playing well, but I think I'm going to continue on this one. Chicago is currently -265 at my book. Baseball is such a random game that I don't think any team should ever be this much of a favourite. I really think with the line like this there is value in the Pirates. Even after yesterday's loss they are still 7-3 in their last 10. Obviously don't let me talk you into the play if you don't want to play it though.
After having said that I'm also going be playing Boston on an equally ridiculous line.
Another rough day, going 0-2. It seems people are all over the map on what plays to make today. Cleveland lost by 1 last night, so they shouldn't be a play today. I gambled chasing Detroit after they lost by 1 run and ended up getting burnt. Even though I'm tempted to go after that again, I don't want to make the same mistake twice. A lot of people are also jumping off the Pittsburgh chase. I know Zambrano is tough to beat and that Chicago has been playing well, but I think I'm going to continue on this one. Chicago is currently -265 at my book. Baseball is such a random game that I don't think any team should ever be this much of a favourite. I really think with the line like this there is value in the Pirates. Even after yesterday's loss they are still 7-3 in their last 10. Obviously don't let me talk you into the play if you don't want to play it though.
After having said that I'm also going be playing Boston on an equally ridiculous line.
I just want to clarify something.....Cleveland is NOT part of the sweep chase program...that was one that qualified under my additional criteria and on those plays there is NO rule to buy 1.5 runs as a dog so Cleveland SHOULD be a play today.
Also, those of you who want to follow the original criteria for the sweep chase where you take the +1.5 runs on the underdog can go ahead. Don't let me talk you out of it......that was a total NON factor until the past 7 days where it has come into play 2 or 3 times. Also another point of clarification I will happily take the 1.5 runs when my team is a huge dog like the Pirates today.....
BTW - Go PIRATES
The above are just choices I've made based on numbers I've run. The thing about the Labourchere is that it's NOT at it's best when you're Laying -200 and if you're buying the 1.5 runs on low level dogs you'll be laying -180 to -200 so if that's the case you'll probably have to bite the bullet and use the double up money management.
I don't know your bankroll and I don't know your tolerance. I choose to take on an extra loss here and there to use the Labourchere but you have to do what YOUR comfortable with.
I'm also experimenting with splitting my money on EVERY favorite and splitting my money on EVERY dog to try and maximize the profits
Livan you are 100% right that at a rediculous price of -265 there is value in Pittsburgh especially when you have Zambrano with cramping problems in nearly every day game.
I just want to clarify something.....Cleveland is NOT part of the sweep chase program...that was one that qualified under my additional criteria and on those plays there is NO rule to buy 1.5 runs as a dog so Cleveland SHOULD be a play today.
Also, those of you who want to follow the original criteria for the sweep chase where you take the +1.5 runs on the underdog can go ahead. Don't let me talk you out of it......that was a total NON factor until the past 7 days where it has come into play 2 or 3 times. Also another point of clarification I will happily take the 1.5 runs when my team is a huge dog like the Pirates today.....
BTW - Go PIRATES
The above are just choices I've made based on numbers I've run. The thing about the Labourchere is that it's NOT at it's best when you're Laying -200 and if you're buying the 1.5 runs on low level dogs you'll be laying -180 to -200 so if that's the case you'll probably have to bite the bullet and use the double up money management.
I don't know your bankroll and I don't know your tolerance. I choose to take on an extra loss here and there to use the Labourchere but you have to do what YOUR comfortable with.
I'm also experimenting with splitting my money on EVERY favorite and splitting my money on EVERY dog to try and maximize the profits
Livan you are 100% right that at a rediculous price of -265 there is value in Pittsburgh especially when you have Zambrano with cramping problems in nearly every day game.
psic, i have a question about the 4 loss chase. is that also 1 run sensitive like the sweep chase? i know the cleveland thing was independent but i just was wondering about the losing streak chase. thanks.
psic, i have a question about the 4 loss chase. is that also 1 run sensitive like the sweep chase? i know the cleveland thing was independent but i just was wondering about the losing streak chase. thanks.
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