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Well even the best of handicappers have their off weeks, and i clearly had mine last week. The good news is we got the bad week out of the way, so lets get back to picking the winners shall we?
Oakland +8.5 at Atlanta - Take Atlanta in my BEST BET OF THE WEEK! (possibly the year) what we have here is a rare occurrance...an auto bet on cover team (atlanta) playing at home against an auto bet against team (Oakland) . Not to mention Atlanta's very strong home advantage and a west to east move......this is a perfect storm intersecting with a perfect storm. Is it possible Atlanta could loose and not cover? sure, anything is, but as far as handicapping goes this is a 72% to cover and this best bet you will see all year, bet it big. Rams +3.5 at Miami - take the fish. dont let miami's 500 record fool you. 2 of their losses this year were in OT and they have played everyone hard. the rams will put up some points, but they wont be able to stop miami, and i expect miami to be -+2 in the turnover category...that alone is worth the bet. Dallas +3.5 at Baltimore....take the ravens. The ravens are heading for the post season and Dallas has some serious matchup issues with Baltimore. This is an easy bet Giants +5.5 at San Francisco - take the 49ers....I said this earlier in the season....there are many stats and situations to quote here but at the end of the day SAN FRANCISCO IS AN AUTO BET... until they start not covering. Minnesota +2.5 at Washington - Take the skins.....this is my least favorite bet of the 4 stars and is only BARELY a 4 star. Green Bay +3.5 at Houston - take Houston ....what did i say about houston and san fran? have a great week and see you all in the funny papers
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tigereon | 1 |
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A word before I start my picks for this week. Moving forward I have decided to separate out my 4star best bets from my standard bets because I feel this season my 4star best bets I have developed a methodology that is far superior as is shown by my results (all my picks are here on covers). Week 3 I started adding in all picks because of the refs and some anomalies with my statistical picking in order to test some theories, i should have kept that out of this post to keep it clean. so moving forward i will only be posting my 4star best bets.
Last week I went a solid 5 and 1 with Arizona being the only exception and I still think that was the right pick. Arizona -3 at Washington - Take the skins at home and lay the 3. I know zona has been a hot hand this year and matches up well against the skins, but washington is in a favorable 64 and 31 situation and has 3 other situational stats that are slightly in their favor. Most importantly there is no other stat to counter the favorable 64 and 31 situation. Philadelphia +3.5 at Pittsburgh - TAKE BIG BEN! This is more of a fundamentals evaluation then statistical, though there are some slight pit stats to help out here. The eagles QB matches up very very poorly here and thus this is one of my top 4 star picks for the week. Green Bay -6.5 at Indianapolis - Take the Packers. This is closer then you might think I have GB as a 7.5 favorite here, so as long as its under 7 this is still a strong GB pick. Look for Andrew to need more then luck here to survive this outing. Baltimore -6 at Kansas City - RAVENS BABY! a lot of people still are not Falco fans or Bmore believers, but I can tell you that if last weeks performance did not sell you I am not sure what will. KC has been playing solid, but they match up VERY poorly here and Bmore finds themselves in a favorable road situation this week. Buffalo +10 at San Francisco - San Fran lay the points. This is my BEST BET of my 4 star picks this week. San Fran is for real and I know those 10 pts scare you but San Fran works out to be a 16pt favorite here. San Fran I expect will beat Buffalo by 3 TD's, so bet this one big. SUPPLEMENTAL I put this last bet as a supplemental because most of you will think i have lost my mind. Cleveland +8.5 at NY Giants - CLEVELAND. now before you laugh at me listen up. Cleveland is a much better team then their record indicates and they clearly have not given up yet. This line is more reflective of the NY money that is huge and the small Cleveland money more then any evaluation of talent or the game. My math has NY as only a 3pt Favorite. Now I expect NY to win, but they will not cover, and I think CLeveland has a chance to win outright.
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tigereon | 9 |
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ANOTHER STRONG DAY 4 AND 1 FOR BEST BETS
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tigereon | 3 |
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I have to be honest i have a long post to make about all the research ive done this season and how the refs had me doing double work, but im late making this post so much to say next post...here we go for week 4
New England -4 @ Buffalo take New England lay the 4 against the streaky bills, i have it on good authority that CJ is not going to be much of a factor in this one (that almost surely means he will rush for 300 and 4 td's) Tenessee +12 @ Houston take Houston at home, clearly one of the early SB bets and one of the best teams out there this year Miami +4.5 @ Arizona Take zone lay the points. AZ still has not caught up in peoples mind as a good team, no one seems to believe it. Kolb is also quietly starting to play like the QB they thought they picked up from Phily. Zona is a much better team than most people think PLUS this is a east west game....this is one of my BEST BEST BETS. Oakland +6.5 @ Denver Take Payton at mile high....i hope this awful team brought some O2, because they will need it. Perhaps in there oxygen deprived hallucinations they might have some spirit journey and figure out who the hell they are as a team....this is a VERY strong best bet Washington +3 @ Tampa Bay TAKE the skins. This is my best bet of the day. Tampa is a miserable 28% to cover at home over the past 4 years and the skins are in a great statistical situation. I truly love this bet
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tigereon | 3 |
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Hello everyone, sorry I took last week off after going a nice 5-0 on my best bets, but after week 1 I saw some odd things pop up that broke trends that have been running for 7 seasons straight and i wanted to spend week 2 watching the math. sure enough my secondary picks were no better then a coin flip but more importantly i wanted to know why.
Everyone knows about the west to east early game trend, the first game for a home team after loosing a qb, and we are always looking for those super strong statistical bets, but this year something odd has been going on. In a word I am still not sure, but i am starting to think the Refs are affecting some of the stats, particularly the penaties they call agains home teams, the number of defensive vs offensive penalties and how long ball home teams are doing, not to mention the overs, I hope to have more data after this week and will be able to draw some firm conclusions that can be used. that being said i was able to account for some of the noise and I have a number of 4* picks this week. There is one Tip i can give you. so far this season the fans are DEAD WRONG...if you see the fans move a line, bet against them its running hotter then anything else atm. so here are the BEST BETS FOR WEEK 3 Cinci @ Washington -3 / Give the 3 and take the skins, last year the 2 always bet with teams were GB and NO, if you bet them you were a winner for the season....this year its SF and Wash and Houston...until they start not covering i say ride them all season long KC @ New Orleans -3 / Lay the 3 take NO....I know with the coach sitting out all the drama and the 0 and 2 start you might be a bit gun shy, but they still have drew and they wont loose all season. But the main reason is just as wash and SF are bet withs KC is one of the bet against this season, there are some other trends that lend to NO in this situation, so close your eyes and pull the trigger Jets @ Miami +1 / take the home team and the 1, Miami is up in this series over the past 5 years and no matter how bad these teams are they tend to split with the team having the advantage winning....this game its miami....this is the weakest of my 4* but its still better the 50% Phill @ Zona +3.5 / boy the vick fans are gonna have a hard time making this bet, but this is a STRONG bet for Zona here, take the points and bet it big Houston @ Denver+1 / What did i just say? you have to bet Houston every game until they prove they dont cover....but id bet a years salary if you bet them every week youd end up by more then just a bit....take houston in the mile high Pitt @ Oakland +3.5 / Oakland is possibly the WORST team in the NFL this season, they have no qb, no defense, no offense and no soul....pitt is going to clobber them. Ben R is one of the most underrated elite qb's in the league and the line reflects that. take this gift and bet it big San Fran @ minnesota +6.5 / Not only do I like San Fran as my BESt BEt OF thE WEEK but i like the under....i dont know how Minnesota is going to score against San fran and i dont see san fran scoring 45 on their own.....San Fran is either the best or 2nd best team in the NFL....this is by far a RUBBER BAND BEt!. New England @ Baltimore -3 / Reveeengeeee.....no thats not it but expect brady to get harassed and tossed around all day in b-more. new england has no d and they have no o line to stop the ravens....the ravens are not a big scoring team usually but they have more then enough to take care of business at home today. well thats it sports fans....lets see how my record holds up, because if it does not i dont expect you to listen to me next week. Tig
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tigereon | 15 |
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Let me start by saying you can find my week 1 picks under the main week 1 thread.
Coming off a flawless week 1 i am starting to have more faith in my methodology, but lets see how the season progresses. New Orleans -1 at Carolina - take New orleans I know this looks like one of those typical 'trap bets' that the books love to make money on, but my math and evaluation still has New Orleans as a 7.5 favorite. Minnesota -1 at Indianapolis - take Minnesota WOW talk about a bad game....and in only week 2! unless you are a fan of either team i doubt anyone would want to watch this sure to be yawn fest of 2 teams going no where this year. but even so Indi might be the worst team in the NFL atm (cleveland is going to try hard to catch them as is miami) . 2 dome teams playing here and I really think indi might only win 1 or 2 games this year. Look for AP to have a big big game. The good news is that Luck might not get stomped quite so bad this week, but look for Minnesota to cover comfortably. Buffalo -3.5 vs KC - take Buffalo I know everyone is ready to write buffalo off after that train wreck at the J E T S jets jets jets, but i caution you to think again. Buffalo made a lot of good moves off season and CJ is aging like a fine wine. Fitzpatrick truly is jeckle and hyde, but id look for him to have a big rebound at home this week vs a inferior opponent. Houston -9 at Jacksonville - take huston Last year it was NO that won and covered almost every game, id look for Houston to be that team this year. If you watched them vs Miami they dominated on all sides of the ball and look like a superbowl contender. Granted Jville isa better team then Miami (who isnt) but they have some serious matchup problems vs Houston. I look for Houston to win by 15 Washington -3 vs st louis - take washington. will RG3 play like superman again? who knows, but washington still gets no respect. this line is more a reflection of a loss of washington money then the matchup, washington is a 10pt favorite. Finally San Fransisco -6.5 vs Detroit- take san fran granted Detroit is a much improved team this year, but San Fran is probably the best team in the NFL this year if they stay healthy. In week 2 at home I feel for Detroit traveling to the bay to get stomped. this will be a blow out and my best bet. take san fran all day.
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tigereon | 14 |
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there are a few 4**** picks this first week. Unfortunately because i waited till close to kickoff to post I will have to wait till next weeks post to detail my analysis along with picks.
As always with week 1 NFL if you are betting the safest bet on the board is to bet the entire slate of CHALK..(ill provide the exact math on this) but it is a better then 65% bet and any bet like that is an auto pick in my book but my analysis shows a few great games if you are just looking for a few cherries Houston -13 at home vs Miami - Breaks my heart being a Miami fan, but this is one of my 2 best best bets of the week. Jacksonville +3.5 vs Minnesota at minn - Remind me who the qb for Minn is again? look for AP to be drinking plenty of gatorade on the sidelines and walking around saying IM BATMAN! Chicago 9.5 vs Indi at indi - my second best best bet of the week. Good lord what has happened to Indi? can i still try out for their D or O line? I couldnt be much worse then who they have. Washington +9 vs NO- I know they got their stars back from the dreaded "Bounty Gate" but they will need some time to get back in the grove. Washington is much improved and 9.5 for them is just too many points. I dont love this one as much as the others but it still grades out as a 4* Denver +1 vs Pittsburgh at mile high - Another year with Pitt leaving half their team at home because they cant play in the mountains. Ill provide the stats for this one too next week but there is something about Mile High that has Pitt's number, maybe they suffer from High Anxiety . Well, those are my picks for the week, but again my best overall bet is to bet the slate chalk if i was forced with a gun to the head to make my best pick. Tig out
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TRAIN69 | 147 |
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