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There was first and third. Medium to shallow FB to RF runner on third (Bruce) couldn't tag, but for some strange reason the runner on first tried to tag and go to second on the fly out and was toast. Also Jack Hanahan has looked like he is intentionally trying to throw this game. I encourage you to go look at the errors (especially the third one) for a laugh.
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Q_the_money | 8 |
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Strike zone has been terrible ! Richards getting inches off corners according to pitch fx
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faifai9394 | 10 |
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The strike zone has been very wide for Richards. Pitch fx of this game is a joke
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taydo | 21 |
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Under 9.5 bal/sea looking nice !
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cambyspree99 | 137 |
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Tm0n3y916 I really enjoy your work. Keep up the good work
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Tm0n3y916 | 35 |
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My POD, like yesterday... PIT tt o3.5 -120
Slight breeze out, all pressure on Lynn who struggles on the road as it is. No yadi and craig for the cards will have the bucs smelling blood in the water. 120/100
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thebackdoorkid | 2 |
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Learners,
Welcome to the site. I am also new to the site, but very familiar with baseball in general from my days as a former player. The first thing you must understand when trying to cap baseball games is that with there being so many games in a Major League season, there are many variables you must consider. Most notably the starting pitchers, the ballpark conditions on that day, the umpire behind the plate, etc. The second is that baseball provides underdogs a chance to win virtually on any given night. Therefore while a team might be a -200 + on the money line the game could very easily go to the +190 dog. It's baseball, one swing of the bat or one dominate performance can change the game in favor of a substantial underdog. When first starting out I recommend you picking 2-3 games you are intereseted in and collect as much data on both teams as you can. Try to find the value in which team you think has value in relation to the line you are thinking of betting. I usually tend to be an "under bettor" meaning that I look at games based on the total number of runs I believe will be scored. I rarely bet the total to go over but prefer to pick my spots to bet UNDER the total. Many totals go under due to the public inflation of the lines based on desire for high scoring home run filled games. However, the reality is that these games have been on the decline the last few years. Hope this is a good starting point. TBDK
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Learnersrealm | 3 |
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on it as well
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Jordman10 | 7 |
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Final Card for 7/25
Mil/Col u9 +105 4* Min/ Sea SEA RL -115 4* TB +100 3.5* +100 Pit/Mia Pit - 160 3* Stl -115 3* TB TT o4 -115 3* SEA TT o4 -120 3* Parlay of the Day Pitu7.5/ Milu9/ Sea RL / Bos/ TB/ STL/ ARI u9/ Oak BOL and have a good day. TBDK |
thebackdoorkid | 3 |
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I'm going to start posting my plays here on a daily basis to help keep me accountable and continue on my current 20-6 hot streak (+37.7 units). I specialize in football, but out of pure boredom have started baseball post all-star break.
I post my plays based on a self developed system of degree of confidence. It's defined as this: 5* - 95% comfort level in my analysis - my maximum 5u POD 4* - 80% 3* - 70% - feel strongly in my lean, but there is conflicting data that could skew the result (especially in o/u analysis) 2* - 60% - 1* - 50% - Standard 1u play My Friday 7/26 LEANS (posted in order of confidence) MIL @ COL u9 +105 - Love both of these two young righties. Watched each of their last 2 starts and really think these two power arms keep the sputtering offenses at bay - seeing a 4/5-2 type game favoring MIL. Also love the +105 - Possible 4* play. TB @ NYY - TB +100 - We've seen the Yankee "ace" perform like anything but this season. TB is hitting .288 vs LHP vs. .250 vs RHP and has had an OPS of .801 vs CC in over 300+ ABs. Additionally, the Rays have their most constant performer in hellickson on the mound in which the active Yankee regulars are 15/63 (.238) against with 3 home runs (2 cano/1 wells) - I see this as a possible 3- 4* play with the hottest team in baseball + money. I will add others later but some other leans I'm currently working on are: BOS + 105 - Lackey with + money with the best offense in baseball in a hitters park. The BOSOX have not had any success against Tillman, however. PIT @ Miami u7.5 - Still almost auto fading the PIT and MIA offenses..I know locke is "due for regression", however his peripherals and other graphical analysis on fan graphs show that he has superb control and can command to both sides of the plate STL @ ATL - STL -115 -Another great offense against a LHP who's very similar to Travis Wood of the CHC. I see the disciplined CARDS winning this game after sweeping the phils. And yes I know the CARDS offense has not performed up to capabilities after the ASB. MIN @ SEA - SEA -1.5 RL -115 - SEA young prospects have been great since letting Brendan Ryan and Co. take a seat on the bench. Scott Diamond while a LHP has over 1.000 OPS vs LHH. I like SEA big tonight at home. That's all for now, hope to generate some discussion. Thanks for welcoming me to the community, lets get money! TBDK |
thebackdoorkid | 3 |
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bump this for any last min advice
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thebackdoorkid | 9 |
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So what's the play here? Best price I'm getting at my books is -123 for BOS which nets 112 at 20% of 690 (138)...395 returns 321 if I decide to do that ...or does anyone have a reason to just let the yanks ride (I have 1.5 units on nyy +128) ?
Thanks again |
thebackdoorkid | 9 |
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Been on this site for about a month having moderate success with the help of many experienced cappers on this site. It's my first post and I need some advice. I have a 8 team parlay that comes down to the nyy/bos game tonight. I have the yanks and cc. What should I do ? It's 10/690.
Thanks for your help. I look to start becoming a regular posting plays etc. TBDK
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thebackdoorkid | 9 |
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