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Remember that properly capping O/U's involves a considerable amount of number crunching. In the past I used the carroll predictive method, Its the only method that worked well for me so I stuck to it. I'll be using this method to cap the modern NBA. The numbers now are much different in today's game so I'm hoping it implements itself well and produces profits.
If you're interested I will post a detailed example and simple breakdown of this method on my first pick for your reference.
#4 SUNS-MAGIC : 227.5 6:10 ET First consider PHX's season PPG of 116.8 and ORL's season PPG of 111.3 in accordance with first, second, third, and forth quarter averages of Average 56.7 1'st quarter points , 2'd quarter points 59.7, 3'rd quarter points 59.1 and 4th quarter points of 51.3 which yields : 226.8 PPG . Comparing that to where the market number sits at right now(227.5 @ 10:56AM ET) in comparison to assumed public consensus based on the season. Also remember that in O/U its extremely important to know if the players that contribute most of the points are likely going to be getting the floor time needed reach their average numbers. CAP player minutes per game in the last 5 games. Capping the average minutes per game for the top 3 scorers on the Suns yields a plus / minus variance of +2.6% meaning the top 3 scorers (Booker 28.2PPG, DURANT 28.8PPG, BEAL 17.8PPG)have been seeing the floor an average of 2.6% more per game the last 5 games. Doing the same for ORL's top 3 (BANCHERO 22.6 PPG , WAGNER 20.6 PPG , ANTHONY 12.8) the variance is +3.2% Again, that means ORL's top 3 have been progressively beeing seeing the floor 3.2% more per game the last 5 games. Plus or Minus. there factors can effect this variance simply speaking, the top 3 on both these teams have been seeing consistently less floor time. This is called the FTV (Floor time variance). Also important to look at average points in the last 5 games. NOTE: OMIT the game if it went to OT . Use the total of the next most recent game. PHEONIX JAN 26 : 131 points JAN 24: 132 points JAN 22: 115 points JAN 21: 117 points JAN 19: 123 points AVERAGE LAST 5 GAMES : 123.6 points ORLANDO JAN 26: 106 points JAN 22: 99 points JAN 21: 105 points JAN 19: 109 points JAN 17: 104 points AVERAGE LAST 5 GAMES : 104.6
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TEJAS7861 | 12 |
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Happy Sunday Fellow Sharps, As expected, I'm off to a volatile start:
JAN 26-GAME #2 CLEVELAND +5.5 W JAN 26-GAME #3 PORTLAND +2.5 L JAN 27-GAME #4 BOSTON -6 L As mentioned in my previous posts, plz take my initial picks with a grain of salt, It'll likely take me a few dozen games to get into the swing of things before win consistency supersedes initial win/loss volatility.
#4 SUNS-MAGIC : 227.5 6:10 ET Pulling out my dusty old capping sheets and getting to work...! FYI: Covers has a cap of posts per day for "New users" so I'm hoping I don't get cut off before I can post picks. Anyone know a Mod I can contact to fix this limit? GL ALL “At gambling, the deadly sin is to mistake bad play for bad luck.”-proverb |
TEJAS7861 | 12 |
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*CORRECTION ON MY LAST POST.. still getting used to using Covers on my phone(emoti's). I think I finally got a hang of it LOL @SP-Capo @ndsent1 @D-Town D-Town!!! .. long time!! @softrocky Thanks for the live betting info...ill look into it. Frankly, the closest to live betting for me was 05' Super Bowl XXX1X. My book offered play by play " live " betting as a gimmick ... Nothing like today...it was Extremely laggy and frustrating. @Puerta2Puerta Early in my early betting days, I QUICKLY understood via losses that sports betting is SO much more than just picking the right side...The first time I saw a sportsbook AD on TV around this time last year, completely blew me away. All the razzle dazzle gives people the illusion that sports betting is easy. Anyone that thinks it's easy to beat the books needs a reality check or needs to STOP gambling. GL @dcundercover I agree with you that live gaming can be a good way of hedging out or juicing out and even be profitable. The only warning I have for anyone in regards to live betting is ...KNOW YOUR NUMBERS... that's ALL the numbers including knowing how to use Vig (Vigorish=Juice) to your advantage and not the book's advantage. The best books for professionals back then used to have -106 lines on sides and spreads(both sides) and the worst juiced lines were usually -111 or -112. The juice I see the books take in live betting is RIDICOLOUS...-125 on a spread ?!?!? When it comes to sticking to s side...I have always relied on the Ride or Die fundamentals. In my amateur days I would only have a chance to hedge or to find a middle at halftimes. I don't know how many times I've Vig'ed out just to find out I would have won if I would have kept my original bet. In my amateur days this used to cause frustration which sometimes lead to making irrational future capping mistakes and poor money management decisions. GL
@Michigan_D @Macwestie1 HEYYYYYY MAC!!! Nice seeing you too buddy!!! Wow lots more Covers Rules than I remember...max 5 posts a day for New users. I'm chuckling to myself right now thinking of all the funny threads that existed on here back in the day...wish I could pull them up on search but they're too old for their servers LOL.
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TEJAS7861 | 32 |
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Using Covers on my smartphone and everytime I try to use or choose an emoticon smileys etc..it shows up as a "?" question mark symbol after I click post..anyone have a fix for this? Im Using android-brave browser.
Thanks |
TEJAS7861 | 5 |
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Hello fellow Sharps, Busy Saturday, 1 game capped: # 1 : BOS -6.5 1UNIT
GOOD LUCK ALL -TEJAS |
TEJAS7861 | 4 |
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@Macwestie1
@hunnid
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TEJAS7861 | 12 |
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CORRECTION 6) 1 UNIT MAX BET NO EXCEPTIONS (STARTUP: 10% of $2,500 Bankroll= $250CND PER BET) ADDITIONALLY I always flat bet: I NEVER Martingale or chase Bets, neither should you.
GL |
TEJAS7861 | 12 |
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: N/A : N/A +/- CASH: $ N/A
Hello fellow Sharps, Here's my first posted handicapped picks on Covers in a couple decades so plz take my picks with a grain of salt. It'll likely take me a few dozen games to get into the swing of things before win consistency supersedes initial win/loss volatility. FYI: MY BETTING DICIPLINE/RULES 1) NO LIVE BETTING (Ride or Die I always keep my original pick) 2) NO Hedging 3) NO Chasing Odds 4) NO Chasing Middles 5) NO Cashing out (UNLESS PRIOR TO GAME START) 6) 1 UNIT MAX BET NO EXCEPTIONS (STARTUP: 10% of $2,500 Bankroll= $25CND PER BET)
My Leans: (I USUALLY HAVE MORE OF A WRITEUP BUT NO TIME TODAY.)
# 1 : MEMPHIS +6.5 1UNIT # 2 : PORTLAND +3.5 1UNIT #3 : CLEVELAND +5.5 1UNIT GOOD LUCK ALL -TEJAS |
TEJAS7861 | 12 |
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I have 5 BETTING RULES I will be following when I make bets:
1) NO LIVE BETTING (Ride or Die I always keep my original pick) 2) NO Hedging 3) No Chasing Odds 4) NO Chasing Middles 5) NO Cashing out (UNLESS PRIOR TO GAME START) |
TEJAS7861 | 32 |
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@FredLeonard Nice to meet you too FredLeonard
@Macwestie1 Mac!!!!!! THX Brother!!!! We HAVE to catch up soon!
@tylus Will Do
@TheAnti_Lock Yes the game has definitely changed since I last followed it. I honestly can't warrant paying for an NBA subscription either...the games are not as classy as they used to be. Seems like the players just don't have the spirit they used to.
@Fuse
@Betforlife3 Thanks for the heads up, Yes Covers is limiting me to 5 posts because its a "new" signup
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TEJAS7861 | 32 |
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Wow the O/U numbers these days in the NBA are astronomically high compared to what I was used to capping back in the day. O/U for low scoring teams were usually capped at 179.5 - 191.1 (usually detroit, houston or pacers games who were known for defence and slow paced games) and O/U for high scoring teams were 219.9-226.5. |
TEJAS7861 | 32 |
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Not me sorry |
TEJAS7861 | 32 |
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WORD TO MrBator!!!! Wow time flies...hope you've been wrecking the books! |
TEJAS7861 | 32 |
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There were no US gaming sites and the one that operated (Bodog.com) got ceased by the FBI. After a few withdraw troubles at sportsinteraction , I found A friend told me to check out Covers back in the day and in just my first few months on here I learned SO much about capping and made a few good friend along the way couple of which I've seen in posts: We all learned a lot from each other, shared picks, celebrated in victories, hated when we got moosed, but most of all...All loved bashing "*Game of the YEAR*" , "*GUARANTEED LOCK*" and Tout threads lol. Betting money on the Fakers in 2003...was suicide .. I see not much has changed My screenname was TEJAS786 back in 2004. In my previous capping days, my overall success rate was around 61%. That's not including halftime numbers. Any by the way back then you had to wait for halftime numbers to be released at...halftime. I then either internationally called the book's number or click mashed the computer to get first dibs on the lines. I've used payphones to call my book for lines and making wagers. Despite being quite successful and making a.living from capping games on a regular basis, I got married and life happened and I no longer had time to properly cap games. I now, years later have the free time needed to properly cap games I used to. I'll be capping the NBA until the end of the season. I love that the covers culture never stopped growing! Let's work 2gether and make the books cry. -T. "God rewards Gamblers and Fools, the critical thing is when you win, knowing which you are"-Mark Twain |
TEJAS7861 | 32 |
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Hi I'm Tejas, I'm back on Covers after almost two decades! I've been capping/betting since 1995. The #1 rule back then was to make sure I had enough quarters for a payphone to call in for lines and make bets. When I was about 15 right around the time Proline launched, I had a friend whose father was the local bookie.After years of hanging out at his place, I learned from observation how the sports market worked. He used to get his lines over the phone on such a regular basis that he often complained his hand was sore from all the numbers he was jotting down. I started to get curious about making money from sports bets and tried to pick up as much information as possible.When I turned 19, I decided to sign up to the only sportsbook in Canada sportsinteraction.com(Quebec) Those were the days depositing involved getting western union information from customer service, going to western union, then giving CC the MTCN number, then wait for the deposit. Around that time there were two risks sports betting 1) Sweating the Game 2) Sweating the withdrawal The industry was not regulated so many boks took advantage of that. If a sportsbook was not paying bettors,There was a site called sbr.com (sports book review) who used to a Rate sportsbooks, and fight for bettors when books don't pay. |
TEJAS7861 | 32 |
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After looking at todays card this one in particular taking OKC-7 or 8 is a PUBLIC TRAP . OKC will start strong and the line will inflate -10 or -11 but OKC will FALL SHORT of covering the 1st half line of OKC -4.If the first half plays out as mentioned above, the books will then set the number around the original -7 or -8. SPURS dominate both the 3rd and the 4th. Spurs win SU by 6 or MORE. |
alapaha | 6 |
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