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TB v IND I like Evans TD at +155 but want higher price. Bryce Young has 5 of 9 games without INT playing Titans whom have only 3 INTS as a team. The parlay of both together is +403 2.481 to win 10 units. Evans has hit TD 4 of last 5 games and 7 of 10 on season. NO V CAR - no plays NYG V NE - no plays posted but have strong opinions on both Barkley over rushing yards at around 70 and Bellinger over 20.5 receiving yards.
Taking break will post afternoon plays in morning.
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SilverShield | 3 |
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@SilverShield car v ten found nothing pit v cin have two plays SGP Pickett un 195.5 yds, under 1.5 TD, under 0.5 INT +305 3.279 to win 10 - Pickett's highest pass total is 160 his last four with only one TD in those games. He hasn't thrown a pick in six. The interception faces a decent D against INT but he seems to be throwing safe. Warren 80+ Rush yards +330 3.03 to win 10. He has ran 88 plus each of the last three games and Cincy with Browning at QB could result in shorter drives to help the running game. Will not attempt any Bengal player props with Burrow injured. |
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Lots of Plays, will post many replies and probably may have near 25 plus picks. Looking for good + prices and stuff that I think has value.
All lines using Draftkings sportsbook Houston v Jacksonville STROUD 325+ pass yards +320. 3.125 to win 10 Jags pass defense not great and he has had 336 plus in four of ten starts and is playing great lately SHULTZ TD +210 4.762 TO WIN 10 - Five of last seven games has a major SINGLETARY 100+ RUSH YARDS +950 1.053 to win 10. Last two games has hit this number and Pierce maybe back but it's a maybe and even when he played he was not that great. The OU for Pierce at 27.5 stating he should be a regular RB2 if he returns. RIDLEY 100+ REC YARDS +400 2.50 to win 10. He has hit 100 yards in 3 of 11 games this year and his third season was 8-7 yes no on such. Didn't play last year but he looks to be in form and four to one odds to high. I"m looking at each game individually hoping to be done by morning. Its 510pm eastern now as I post this. |
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adding a wild one I think has great value. It has hit in three Vancouver games including once vs. target opponent Sharks SGP Hughes Boeser and Miller each to score and the Canucks win +1800 happened Nov 2, 6 and 15th and this Canucks team on fire and the Sharks suck. Risking 0.556 to win 10 units |
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This is the one I am using today for my Draftkings free bet if loss play
Claxton ov 1.5 blocks - He was 55-21 last year in such and off to a 5-1 start this year Dinwiddle un7.5 assists - Only 4 of 13 games he has 8 plus dimes and was 51-28 under 7.5 last season
Lonnie Walker over 12.5 points - 9 of 13 games has done such this year ODDS FOR ALL THREE TO HIT +475 Risking 2.105 to win 10
Good day Derek
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Adding Colton (COL) goal +280
7-12 yes no record on season but even better lately with 4 goals in 6 games. at +280 you need to win 1/3.8 (26.3%) of time to ensure is is break even bet and I truly believe it is higher likely chance than such. His ice time is low, but he's getting job done with what he is getting and I've always been impressed with his talent going back to when he started in Tampa. Vladar should start for the Flames and he has been poor this year as well.
3.571 units to win 10 |
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Three player parlay
HRONEK assist VAN -125 Went over yesterday why I liked it, he got one and has several of them this season and great match vs. Sharks GUENTZEL assist PIT -130 Woll hasn't impressed me lately and Jake has recorded a helper in 13 of 19 games or a littler over 2/3 the time. He is also on a 9-2 yes no run for hitting such Atkinson PHI over 2.5 shots -135 14 of 20 games he has hit 3 plus shots and playing the Islanders who have allowed the 5th most shots so far.
PARLAY PAYS +454 (DraftKings) and risking 2.203 to win 10
SEASON RECORD: SPORT W L UNITS |
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2nd post for me as I played the Orlando game in earlier one.
HERBERT JONES OVER 1.5 steals, OVER 0.5 blocks, over 3.5 rebounds. +330 price with Draftkings SGP All three events have occurred in 5 of his 12 games this season and with over three to one odds I like the value here 3.03 units to win 10
Good day Derek
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@SilverShield Adding 2 team parlay
Dobson NYI to get a point -120 and Hronek VAN to get an assist -110. I don't like taking minus prices or low plus prices which is why I parlay them. The parlay price is +250.
Noah Dobson has a point in 12 of 18 games this season and 6 of last 9 games and matchup at Ottawa is nice enough for me. Hronek has assist in 14 of 20 games and 12 of 15 albeit starting to slow down a little but like the matchup against Seattle.
Parlays they say don't work but they do if you have an advantage. Using +100 for easy math and a 55% success rate for realistic ROI for plays. If you were to play this over 100 days with same units bet the following would happen two plays per day Straight Bets 110 wins and 90 losses for 20 units gained for one unit per day Parlays would be +300 and 0.55 x 0.55 is 0.3025 which is how often you would win two team parlays. That means winning 30 and betting two units per play to equal two single units would be (30 x 3 x 2 = 180) while losing 70 bets for 140 and a gain of 40 units higher than straight bets.
RISKING 4 to win 10 on this parlay.
Good day Derek. |
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Adding Matheson Montreal goal +320 (Draftkings) First reason he has scored in 3 of last 7 games but the matchup is the reason to bet it. Sharks are horrible versus defense allowing tied with Arizona most 14 goals against versus defense. Matheson is on the PP1 for the Canadiens and sharks have 3rd worst PP pct allowed.
3.125 units to win 10 |
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@SilverShield Price was +266 actually although moved to +270 after I bet it and 3.76 to win 10 is associated with +266 |
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Hello. Usually picks will be near +200 but this one exception looking for plays that occur way more than the price offered. If I like plays in the -130 or +110 range I will usually find two things to parlay them together to get my price i am looking for.
Not sure if i'll add more as I research but there has been something I've done every game for a while and one of my betting theories is: Bet the same thing every time until either the books adjust the price or the trend changes. JT Miller of the Vancouver Canucks is scoring lots of goals. 13 of 20 games he has scored and is +155 to do such and playing Seattle who is a bad defensive team. 8 of 19 games last year after the Horvat trade Miller scored as well and these records are much more likely to happen. Miller also on a 3-0 and 7-2 yes no run for scoring goals including a hit vs. Kraken. For a fun bet Miller goal and Seattle win on SGP which pays +525 as Seattle playing better and Canucks worse lately. Seattle has had several wins on season allowing three plus goals and 3 of last 7 Canucks games they lost with him scoring. I'm not making that documented play but putting tiny pizza money bet on it myself for smaller stakes. Last season over and over I did the same thing with Horvat goal and Canucks lost because it kept hitting way more than the price offered.
BET MILLER GOAL +155 (6.45 units to win 10) may and probably will be back with 1-2 more plays as I research with probably Matheson goal on Montreal. |
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Hello. I use a math based approach to my picks and look for value for occurrences that happen way more than price selected.
Todays pick is an SGP. And draft kings also has promo where you pick three things you get free bet on loss so will have three items on this game.
First off Paolo Banchero in his sophomore season is kicking butt so far. He has had three assists or more in all but one game and a steal in 11 of 15 and both of such in 10 of 15. The SGP price just for the two of such is +112 which is very great value in itself. However even +112 I want higher than as I like making bets near +200 and higher. Last season the Magic were 3-1 vs. the Celtics SU and both teams come into this game on great hot streak. Adding 6.5 points on spread is where I want to go. I looked for any other player prop play and can't find anything that I like and the three play SGP for ORL +6.5 whom are 10-5 ATS as team vs. spread and Paolo ov 2.5 assists and 0.5 steals is +266 which is the play I am goring with here. All three events have occurred in 7 of 15 Magic games.
The math at +244 means I need to win 100 of 344 spots to break even long term which is 29.1% and I think success probability rate is much higher and over 35-40 pct likely.
All my plays are whatever units required to win 10 so it is 3.76 to win such. I plan on posting all four major sports here for decent time with a few plays but never more than 5 or 6 in a day as it is my favorite picks per day. |
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Last night hit a loss and looking to take advantage of another wild total over and this with Tyreek Hill. six Last season Hill had 6 of 17 games where he had 140 yards or higher. This season 6 of 10. To make record only better only 1 of 4 games last year when Tua was inactive he hit the target or 5 of 13 with Tua last year giving it a 11-12 record in his Miami Dolphins career with Tua at QB. The odds Draftkings is offering for over 119.5 is +425 and when thats the price I don't care who the opponent is and where it is. Jets are 3rd best for fewest pass allowed and I don't care as I'd do any matchup. at 425 price i need to win 100 of 525 plays longterm that is 20% accuracy to be positive units.
PLAY: Tyreek Hill Over 119.5 +425 (2.35 to win 10) I went to other site and they had over 140.5 at +250 area which I found interesting.
SEASON RECORD NFL 0-1 -3.22 |
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Hello. I've used covers for over 20 years love the site. Going to post plays here in NHL-NBA-NFL and the vast majority will be player props and sometimes in an SGP level which I have been very succuessfull going over the math reasons to the play. My tracking will be whatever units it takes to make 10 as the vast majority of my plays will be + plays.
Brandon Aiyuk over 99.5 yards +310 (DraftKings) 3.23 units to win 10
4 of 9 games this season he has hit the triple digit mark for this target and the matchup is not a bad one versus Seattle. Two of his last three games also with such and Deebo's return last week still didn't stop the big game. Purdy is playing great and seems Brandon is a big target. At +310 odds you need to be right a little under 25% of the time to break even and feel that this play is closer to 40% likely to hit thus value.
I will be back most days with plays moving forward. Derek |
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I think it is safe to say that if a person gets to make a pick with 24 in a row already won that that person will move the line in vegas and offshore books within' a few hours as the $10K prize in late 2016 had that occur in a NCAAB total.
Therefore hedging smart can offer a middle opportunity as this gives us regular twenty dollar bettors a chance to actually be responsible to move one line in a time span of a few hours and for just one day can become the wise guy(or gal). If you take a team say-4 in hoops it would be -6 three or four hours later.
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abelthegreat | 11 |
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Get as much cash as you can and make a big bet on the opposite site in this situation so that you would guarantee a winning prize in case the covers streak ends. Its worth putting up 5K min to hedge in this spot.
I might hedge the $1,000 prize as well by betting $100-250 or so on the other side.
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abelthegreat | 11 |
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Hello. I have been away for many weeks and really haven't had interest in hockey betting. I have been looking at the olympics and feel I have some edges.
The Swe/Cze game I had swe -1.5, -2.5 and -3.5 and the ov5.5. Worked out well as Sweden is more stacked up front and the goalie matchup as the key there. That game is over. Russia/Slovenia LOVE, LOVE LOVE this game and the odds. This should be a romp as the Russians should be favored by 7 or 7.5. Its always been this way with olympics and junior hockey. The Russians, Fins, Sweedes and even Fins pick on these teams very badly and the Russians do it the best. Back in the 2002 olympics I remember laying my whole bankroll on Cze -800 to win against one of these guys and they did like 13-1. Easy win. A night or two later I put my whole bankroll on Canada-900 over Germany and that game almost lost as Canada won 3-2 with Germany pressuring at the end. I almost had a heart attack and never made a bet like that again. My theory was dead on. Those nations destroy everyone else and Canada beats them alright. With this game the Russians have one of the best offensive cores I have ever seen at home against Slovenia who doesn't have a goalie even good enough for the KHL. Russians are solid in net. Kopitar is the only NHL player on SLO and the size of these guys with many of them at 180 or lower in body weight (lbs). This has everything spelt to be a massive blowout. Ovechkin should get a hat trick as the defense and goaltending are so inferior this will be easier than playing practice in Washington. The top 2 lines are stacked and there is some concern for their 3rd and 4th lines. If I were to match both teams bottom two lines in this game, Russia still dominates with their KHL crowd. Only one KHL player is on team Slovenia. Prediction: Russia 9 Slovenia 0 Picks: Russia-5.5+140, -6.5+250 ***large*** Ovechkin to score at least two goals YES+250 Canada versus Norway Because of Canada's older history in not crushing these teams, I am not making this play massive, but its still a premium pick from my research. I remember the first olympics in 1996 or 1998 that had NHL Players. I got up very early to watch Canada I think play Japan. They won by like 4-0 or 5-1 or something that was not massive beatdown. Up until the midpoint of the last decade it was a lock to take five or more goals against Canada. Norway brings one NHL'er to this game in Mats Zuccarello from the NY Rangers. This player has done well with them as a solid second liner. This team brings three forwards whom weigh greater than 200lbs and these guys are not at the same level as Canada who brings an all-star team. When looking at Canada's key forwards in Crosby, St. Louis, Toews, Tavares, Perry, Sharp and the list goes on, the same theory in Ovechkin having his day in practice will be with these guys. They will score goals as the defense and goaltending is very inferior. I do not buy into the jet lag when their opponents are at a lower level. This could mean Canada could their guard down and over estimate competition, but that isn't going to happen as this team should be eager to defend their title. Prediction: Canada 8 Norway 1 Picks Canada,-4.5-110 -5.5+180, -6.5+340 Over 7.5+150 Crosby to score at least one goal+100 Parlay: Can-6.5 to Rus-6.5 +1440 Parlay: Each of these three teams to lead after one period *HUGE* Russia over Slovenia Canada over Norway Finland over Austria Odds work to +120. If I lose laying the goals, I have to figure it will be because of the third period when the foot is let off the gas. I don't buy jetlag and expect that Russia and Canada both come out firing. Finland is -240 to lead after one period and I figure all they need to do is score one goal with Rask in net for the Fins. I have to figure this parlay is a huge favorite to win and to get better than even is a sure HUGE wager. I have risked 12% of my bankroll on all these plays and job #1 for me is always bankroll management and to only risk this kind of percentage when the odds are heavily in your favor. My Sweden wagers were only 1.4% |
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Yesterday hit my game of the year with the Sharks shots Ov and the Penguins gave ov5.5 losing the Preds scoring three or more goals.
Tonight Chicago/Vancouver Ov5.5+100 I like based on Chicago style games and the loss of Crawford makes it easier taking their totals over. Raanta has played good however making this go from, OMG bet a lot on it, to a standard size bet. Chicago does have weapons to score and the Canucks aren't slouches at scoring. Ovechkin to score-105 - TheGreek has +115 on this prop which is an amazing bet. I've went over this play many times before, but based on the fact Alex is showing to be a 70+ goal scorer, you are mad not take this wager when not playing a top notch goalie and for Carolina, they don't have such a thing. Florida pk+133 ov Winnipeg This play is between a heavy lean and small unit play. I have this as small unit play right now with Pavelec struggling lately. |
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Here is my two cents on this game as I have been leaning towards the Canucks
a)They just lost their last game breaking a seven game winning streak and replacing the streak with getting and eight straight point scoring streak. b)They played last month where Dallas defeated them 2-1 even though the Canucks outshot them 41-23 back in Vancouver. The sandwich game theory works on the mindset factor of the players and in this game mindset should be strong from the previous loss in factors a & b. c)Dallas barely has a winning record on the road and barely has a losing record at home. d)At least Vancouver has a full day off. Analysis - with the Canucks being very tiny road favorites, I have a heavy lean on them and will most likely ride the Nucks
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j-walk | 11 |
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