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KC has won their last 5 games against the spread. SF has lost their last 3 games against the spread. Is there anybody here that can run a query that yields a record where a team on a streak of 3+ wins ATS plays against a team on a streak of 3+ losses ATS? (Maybe going back 10+ years would be nice as it pertains to a timeline) Maybe Indigo might be able to run this query? Just curious on this one? Thanks
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jasondemz | 1 |
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5 out of the 6 games in the wildcard round were not close with 3 underdogs winning outright. The Lions/Rams game was the only game that was close. I believe this round we will not have as many blowouts. |
jasondemz | 11 |
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@leafs1789 I am going to fade KC next week when they play at Baltimore for the AFC Championship. Baltimore will struggle with rust this game and pull it out in the end against Houston. KC will be coming into that game next week with 4 straight wins against the spread if they beat Buffalo and the spread will probably be Baltimore -3 or -3.5. Baltimore will cover and go to the Superbowl and lose to SF in a revenge game. By the way, I just rewatched the Tampa Bay vs. Detroit week 6 game in Tampa. A very telling note that I must say is that Detroit has much more speed than Tampa, especially their wide outs and keep in mind that the first time they met, the game was on grass. Now it will be on synthetic turf. The Detroit wide receivers got better separation against the Tampa secondary than Tampa's wide outs did against the Detroit secondary. For some reason Tampa's wide receivers (Goodwin and Evans) remind me of the Chargers wide outs (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams). They are good receivers but lack shiftiness and speed. Godwin is a bit more speedy than Evans though. The difference in this game to me is team speed. Detroit has it and Tampa does not. Also, Gibbs did not play at RB for Detroit in the first game. Tampa stopped the run in the first game but Goff was picking the secondary apart. I do not see what changed from that game to now. Same game plan this go around will do however, I definitely see this hitting over 50 points total.
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jasondemz | 11 |
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San Francisco has not covered a home game since early October against Dallas. (5 straight losses at home ATS). I took SF -10. Green Bay run defense is not so special. Green Bay has played in 6 straight overs on the road. I took the under 50. Weather forecast calls for sloppy conditions as well.
KC has played in 4 consecutive unders and now faces an injured Bills defense especially in the middle. Go opposite and take the over. At the very least, Josh Allen is good for 21-24 points at home. Bills on 6 straight wins and are playing on an unsustainable level. Time for regression against a better defense and coach. KC wins by a field goal but I took the +2.5.
Houston +9.5. Baltimore will be rusty and have won 6 straight with Lamar if you exclude resting their players against Pitt in week 18. Go opposite. I think it will be close because Houston has a defense and they are not the same team that Baltimore met in week 1. Gonna be cold and windy. The under is a good recommendation but I think Stroud and this offense has too much talent to be receiving +9.5. Baltimore wins by 7 or less but Houston covers. Detroit ML - Despite TB's solid run defense, Gibbs and Montogomery will do just enough to aid Detroit in another close win. TB does not run the ball really well either and they will not against another good run defense in Detroit. This will be won through the air and Goff has more weapons. TB is on 4 straight unders. The over is also a good play.
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jasondemz | 11 |
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Houston +9.5 San Francisco -10 and under 50 Detroit ML Kansas City +2.5 and over 46.5
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jasondemz | 11 |
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Houston +2.5 and under 44.5 Dallas ML and over 50.5 Rams +3 and under 52 Over 43.5 in TB/Philly game
I also have 8 team parlay to hit $3200...same card as above but remove the over in the TB game. Replace with Miami +4.5 and over 44.
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jasondemz | 1 |
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I believe there was a thread here at beginning of year that someone mentioned regarding teams ATS record the week after winning by exactly 1 point. If someone has that thread or stat please share. I think it applies to the Rams this week. |
jasondemz | 3 |
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@Dental
@Dental I incorporated the 1pm parlay and the 4pm parlay as er below to win $12500 Bengals ML and under 37 Vikings +3.5 and under 46 Jets +1.5 Tenn/Jax over 41.5 GB/Chicago under 45 Denver+3 KC/LAC under 35.5 Dallas/Wash over 46.5 Philly/NYG over 42
I did not parlay all 1pm recommendations into 1 parlay but my analysis says they are the suggested plays. 4pm as well.
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jasondemz | 33 |
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@mccofp I apologize. I meant Under 45. Take the under. By the way if u are railing that parlay, I would leave out Bears +3 and Seattle ML. Those 2 are leans that I put in the steamer. I feel a bit stronger about my 12 steamer belowin the thread that I added this past Friday night |
jasondemz | 33 |
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@mccofp I apologize. I meant Under 45. Take the under. By the way if u are railing that parlay, I would leave out Bears +3 and Seattle ML. Those 2 are leans that I put in the steamer. I feel a bit stronger about my 12 steamer belowin the thread that I added this past Friday night |
jasondemz | 33 |
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4pm games summary: Denver +3 Philly ML Philly / Giants over 42 Chic/ GB under 45 Dallas/Wash over 46 Seattle / Arizona over 47.5 KC/ LAC under 36 Tough calls on GB / Chicago and Seattle /Arizona games. Can go either way from a sides perspective |
jasondemz | 33 |
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A few other games to note and I have in some parlays is the under 37.5 in the Cincy / Cleveland game. Cleveland is on 5 straight road overs. Go opposite and take under. I have on 2 parlays. Vikings on 3 straight overs. Go opposite Take the under of 46. I have on 2 parlays. Lions on 3 straight covers ats. Go opposite. Take Vikings +3.5. I got +5.5 earlier in week. Pats on 4 straight overs. Go opposite.Take under 30. Sunday 1pm summary: Vikings ATS and under Bengals ML and under Jets ATS and under Tenn ATS and over Car/ TB under No play on ATL/NO game but I lean over
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jasondemz | 33 |
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I forgot to mention that I have a 12 team parlay going as well to win $28,500. Pitt ML, Houston ML, Cincy ML, Philly ML, Jets +2.5, Minnesota +5.5, Denver +2.5 Over Ten/Jax 40 Over Dal/Wash 44.5 Over Seattle/Arizona 47.5 Under Chic/ GB 44 Under Car/Tampa 37.5
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jasondemz | 33 |
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A little further information that I will add to this thread.
Colts have won 3 games straight up at home including a recent Saturday night game where they dominated Pittsburgh. Here is another Saturday night game in front of their home fans playing against a Texans team seeking same season revenge. Leaning a change in regression here. I have Houston ML on a few other parlays. Pittsburgh was blown out on a recent Saturday game against the Colts and now they play another Saturday game against Baltimore who has covered 6 games in a row. They are due regression. Hence, I have Pittsburgh ML paired with Houston ML on those same parlays. Philly has lost 5 straight games against the spread with 4 of those straight up. They happen to be playing at the same time as the Cowboys who are on the road against a division rival. Giants covered their last game at home and Philly is in the playoffs already but they are lacking momentum going in. Giants are not truly playing spoiler here. Philly has an NFC championship to defend but it all starts with getting the team playing better going into the playoffs. I have Philly ML on a few parlays and I even have Philly -5 in 1 parlay. Philly is due to cover a game. Dallas is on 4 straight unders and 3 straight losses against the spread and Washington's game last week at home went under. Go opposite. I took the over in the Washington/Dallas game and is in some of my parlays. I am careful about taking Dallas with all of those points. I avoided it. I just have a feeling that Washington keeps it closer than it needs to be this week. They are also seeking same season revenge however talent for Dallas will probably win out here. Staying away from spread but gun to head says Washington +13.5.
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jasondemz | 33 |
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@vanzack Hello Vanzack,
I always do 1 parlay on Sunday afternoons based on your selections. I actually hit 2 big parlays (1 for $1500 and 1 for $1650) last week and decided to be a little brave this week. Hence the post today. I had Rams ML, Texans ML, KC ML, Saints ML, Jags ML, Pitt +4, the over in the Ari/Phil game 48 and the over in the Seattle/Pitt game 41. That was on 1 parlay. The other parlay I had was Dallas ML, Colts ML, Jags ML, KC ML, Saints ML, Pitt +4, Giants +5, and the over in the Seattle/Pitt game 41. That was my other parlay. I wish I can share 2 other parlays but Miami at +3.5 killed those. All others hit on the other ones. Either way I do put some thought into a mix of trends and analysis. I feel good about this one. The Seattle ML is concerning but I feel it will squeak by barely. Thoughts welcomed on my picks will be greatly appreciated.
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jasondemz | 33 |
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Cincinatti ML (Cleveland resting starters with seed locked up and on road. Cleveland won and covered last 4 games. Due for an L) NY Jets +2 (New England covered last 4 ATS and Jets lost last 3 ATS. Books begging you to take NE at home on short line that has went from +3 to +1.5 in some books. Jets on extended rest having played on Thursday night. Don't fall for the "Bill's last game in NE intrigue.) Tenn +3.5 (Tennessee lost their last 3 games at home ATS and now playing with same season revenge against a banged up division rival and opportunity to play spoiler. Field goal game at best. I have the hook in my favor here as well.) Over 41 Jax/Tenn (both of these teams are on 3 straight unders coming into this game. Plus their first game went over. Repeat the over in this game as well.) San Francisco ML (Here is a stat that you may not know. As good as SF has been they have not covered in 4 straight games at home. This changes this week despite backups playing. Taking the ML just to be safe but an outright cover would not surprise me here.) Denver +2.5 (Raiders have covered 3 straight games. They are due for an L. Denver has not had a winning season via record since 2016. They are playing for something in this game. Raiders already beat them earlier and both are out of contention for playoffs. No Josh at RB for Raiders either. Stidham is a former Raider who got cut and is now playing with revenge against former team. Payton has the coaching advantage. Furthermore, the line has not moved off of 2.5. Why? Because they are baiting you to take the Raiders on a small line at home. Go opposite. Take Denver) Bears / Packers over 45 (Packers on 5 or 6 straight overs. Go opposite playing a good Bears defense. Points will be at a premium in this game. Take the under) Bears +3 (They are playing solid football on both ends over the last month and a half. The addition of Montez Sweat has paid dividends on a massive level for this team. Field goal game. I could see a push here at best but an outright win is what I am expecting. GB has won 9 out of last 10 in this matchup. Same situation as the Tenn/Jax game where we have a division rival who lost earlier this year and now has the opportunity to play spoiler in last game of season. The thing is that I actually think that Chicago is the better team than GB in this case.) Seattle ML (Arizona did their Superbowl last week. They will hurt their draft position if they win here. Regardless of that, Seattle is the better team and has the more experienced coach. It is a road game and I normally like taking dogs at home after a road win plus the fact that Arizona lost to two striaght division rivals at home in SF and Rams which gives me pause...but I think talent wins out here but it is close. Another field goal game and I am taking the better team in this situation but not taking the -3. Going ML instead.) A little note. The last 3 years in this series, the teams have exchanged unders and overs. if they played over the first game they go under the 2nd game. Take a look yourself. Based on this pattern, the over is in play. I was tempted to take the over here but I just stuck to the Seattle ML. Just an FYI. TB / Carolina under 37.5 (TB has played the over in 3 straight road games and their QB is a bit banged up. They are due for an under on the road in a tight defensive match up. Carolina defense shows up here to keep it tight and under)
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jasondemz | 33 |
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I am starting to see + 1.5 out there after starting the week as +3. Perception is that Bengals just beat SF by 14 and are now home on a short line would normally receive public support yet spread is going against Cincy. I am keeping a careful eye on this. Bills may be banged up on defense but they might be Ableton outscore Cincy plus they are on extra rest and Cincy returning from west coast |
jasondemz | 10 |
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Snow in forecast for game 70% chance. |
jasondemz | 15 |
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Bolton is a very good inside linebacker. His absence will be felt in this game because Denver's strength is their run game and their offensive line is better at run blocking than pass blocking. McLaughlin is fast enough to get to the 2nd level of the KC defense unlike Javonte Williams. I think they get WR Mims more involved in this game as well. I see a tight game here with Denver playmakers especially Jeudy trying to show out before the trade deadline. The sharps have hit Denver early this week dropping the line to 7. |
jasondemz | 15 |
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@mrusso Line is down to 7. |
jasondemz | 15 |
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