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Quote Originally Posted by D_Unit:
TCU loses straight up.
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WahooS | 95 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kimp24:
am i the only one that's really high on south carolina this year? No, I am as well. I think they are def a dark horse. I think they win the SEC East - for sure. The part of the season that scares me for them is @ MSU, @ Tenn, @ Ark...3 consecutive games. That is tough. But...Georgia is overrated. They have a good QB in Murray, but I do not know why everyone is so fascinated with them (easy schedule or not.) If Tenn schedule was not so brutal I would say that SC would have a battle with them to win the east, but Tenn (which I look to be much improved) has too tough a schedule to win it. |
LRM704 | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dugie243:
for long shots i got wisky, arkansas and va tech. GL to all We are thinking alike. I have those 3 plus Florida St. I like it! |
LRM704 | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:
Didn't realize they'd had so many close ones against big teams, I was just remembering Auburn from last year. I do think it's worth noting that this line is much shorter than any of those, and this Illinois team is a whole lot better than that '08 A&M team. Actually, crazy as this may sound, I think this Illinois team may be as good as last September's Auburn team. That was a national championship team starting about three weeks into October, but I didn't think they were particularly impressive early on.
Thanks for pointing out those numbers. I still think this is a short line, but maybe that's the reason why. Over 17, I wouldn't consider Illinois, but here I might.
You are correct. I will probably shy away from this one. However, if you chose to go with Illlinios...BOL brother! |
jdnmoney | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:
I understand feeling positive about Arkansas State and think that they may pull some upsets in SBC play. However, they have four new starters on the offensive line. That's the place where continuity is most important, so it may make for some early struggles.
Also, the consensus seems to be that Illinois is undervalued coming into this year, although I'm always nervous about Zook as a favorite. Regardless, I has this one at 20.
Again, I am not a A State fan...please note. OL - You are correct. They lose will be replacing a depleted OL. Center returns. However, it is not like they are losing a great OL. This group did perform great ly. I always say, why do you want returning starters if the returning starters do not perform well??? They do have several good jucos that will be battling for the jobs in the Ol. I look for at least 3 to start maybe 4. As a bettor here in Arkansas, it is known to be careful with ASU vs. bigger, quality or ranked schools early in season. 2006 - ASU (+31) @ #6 Auburn....lost 0 - 27...covered 2007 - ASU (+39) @ Texas...lost 13 - 21...covered and had chance to win SU 2008 - ASU (+19) @ Tex A&M...won 18-14 2009 - ASU (+21) @ #22 Neb...lost 9 - 38...did not cover 2009 - ASU (+21) @ #13 Iowa...lost 21 - 24...covered 2010 - ASU (+31) @ #22 Auburn...lost 26 - 52...covered
And these were shitty ASU teams. For some reason, they always play the big teams well early in season. With a better squad this year...I just think you need to be careful vs. Illinois. But, hey...ASU could very well lose by 30. Who knows?
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jdnmoney | 62 |
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I am on other side of most. Undecided about TCU and Baylor. I like both of these teams to be better than predicted this season. I will probably stay away from this one. |
SouthWestPlayer | 16 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Corley1011:
These are what I like right now... I'll narrow these down
Mississippi St. -25
Illinois -14-
S. Mississippi -11
Texas A&M -14
Medium
FIU -12
Notre Dame -8-
Tulsa/Oklahoma over
Small
Wisconsin -32
Syracuse -6-
Northwestern +6-
Baylor +9 Purdue -15
Ole Miss +1
LSU -3
Boise St. -2-
S. Carolina -15-
Clemson -12
Florida St. -28
Tulsa +23
W. Virginia -19-
You might want to read my reply in jdnmoney's thread (week on lines) on Arkansas State. |
Corley1011 | 11 |
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I am with you guys on most. But, I would be very careful with ASU @ Illinois (-14.5). First let me say...I am NOT an Arkansas State fan. I am not against them, basically I could careless about them. However, I do live in the state and I see all the ASU news...and insight. This team could POSSIBLY catch some people off guard early in season. 1) HC - Ex HC Steve Roberts was a nice guys. Everybody loved him, but the guy was not a good coach. He could never win more than 6 games and his teams were not real good. In 2009, the Red Wolves hired Hugh Freeze as the OC. LY his offenses set all kinds of school records. He really had them looking much better. Freeze has been promoted to the HC and will call the offense. I look for them to put up some #'s on people (may still lose, but not without a little fight). 2) Defense - Dave Wommack is the new DC in Jonesboro. Wommack has been around defense for a long time and has had success as a DC. He was at the Razorbacks in 2001-2004 and with Southern Miss from the mid 90's to 2000. They say his defense right now looks very good. They interviewed some of the offense guys and said that people are blitzing from all over the place, alot of frenzy and confusion type of stuff with some pretty good players. They will have one of the best fronts in the conference. 3) QB - Ryan Aplin - this will be his 2 full year in Freeze's offense. He will be able to run this offense and move the ball. All considered, I think ASU might be a suprise team in the Sun Belt and be in contention late. Not sure if I am going to take the 14.5 points against Illinois, but I would def think twice about going with Illinois. Just my thoughts from a Hog fan on the other state team! |
jdnmoney | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by effedbythehook:
Unproven QB in FSU. Think you are on the right track here |
chvatalas | 27 |
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I am all over MSU!!! Let's hear those cowbells...
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Arid_Torpor | 38 |
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Quote Originally Posted by -29-:
I wouldn't be surprised if Texas A&M finishes the year with a losing record. I agree that Auburn is overated but interestingly enough they started last season ranked #19 in the Coaches Poll. The Big East has been completely shut out of the Top 25 (has that ever happened before?). I thought that it was mandatory that the Hokies begin each season ranked in the top 10 if not the top 5. Although they are still over valued at 13 IMO. I think that the 'Gators are being a bit overvalued as well. HogPen - I hope that you are right about the Vols. I am high on the Vols this year. I think they might suprise some people! If they had either SC or Geo schedule, i might even say the could win the SEC east, however they do not. The difference in ly's Auburns ranking and this years is Cam Newton. We knew ly that Auburn was going to climb up the rankings and might contend for a title. I remember listening to Newton's Juco coach talk before the season and he said that Cam was the greatest athlete he had ever seen...an athletic freak of nature is how he described him. |
dugie243 | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:
My biggest problem with this is that it is such a huge advantage to be ranked high early. If Oklahoma loses to Florida St early then they are still in the top10 and if they win out have a good shot at playing for the NC. Where as a team like Georgia loses to Boise early would fall out of the top 25 and if they win out, even in the SEC, has no shot of playing for a NC.
Rankings should not come out until say like week 5. Its just not fair to any team outside the top 10...especially when this poll is a huge contributor the BCS.
Agree 100% |
dugie243 | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:
Careful betting Football Weekly .... IMNHO If you plan on being a Long term Sports Gambler ... Go small on Weekly ATS Wagering (10-30% of Bankroll) Put at least 70% of your bankroll + into CFB Futures
How long of you been doing this? What is your average season result (winning, loses)? I usually put about 25% in to futures and 75% weekly betting...maybe I need to invest a little more into futures. |
alabamam25 | 8 |
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Preseason Coaches' Top 25 I have several issues with this poll. I have spoken with several D1 coaches and they say the just pass along the ballet to their PR guy...and have no idea how he voted. Also, these guys (whoever does the voting) do not watch much college football except for their team and the team they are facing that week. Trust me! And this poll is the one that counts in the BCS rankings. Where is Houston??? Tennessee will squeak in Top 25 by year's end. |
dugie243 | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lindetrain:
A Wahoo sighting
FWIW, I'm on the Hogs U8.5 season win total this year
L'train - You should have talked to me first brother. I could have helped you out...at least saved you some $$$. Joking...I am sure you have your reasons. I would love to hear how you capped it under 8.5. |
HogPen | 29 |
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Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
let the man figure his own units guys, we haven't even started the season and you guys are hawking someone's units already
best of luck with your play Yes....to each their own. My only reason for commenting is when someone says they have a 15 unit play you think...wow. But his are not 15 unit plays they are 3 unit plays. Just a bit deceptive...that is all. But yes...BOL with the plays! |
chvatalas | 27 |
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Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
HogPen Welcome! I agree on Petrino. I think Arkansas could have a special season this year. Question - I have targeted Arkansas over New Mexico in Week 2. My preliminary spread is Arkansas -32. I understand the game is at Little Rock. I know LR is a quasi home game for Arkansas. Do the Razorbacks play well in LR also. Do you think Petrino will run up the score against an overmatched NM team coached by the coaching bully Locksley? Thanks in advance and have a great season.
Arkansas usually plays 2 games a year in LR...an early season non-conference game and then either MSU or LSU (alternate years) at the end of season. Yes, the hogs play well in LR...and it is a wild atmosphere. But...the early season game they only cover about 50% of the time. It is always against someone the should spank...pt spread is usually somewhere b/t 32 and 38. So now you ask why only cover about 50% of time??? The game is usually never in doubt and they cruise to a win....since the opponent in this game is usually of lesser caliber and we have alot of southern and central Arkansas kids on the team...they try and get everyone in the game. It is difficult for those families to make the trip up to Fayetteville for many games so LR is there only time to see them. Coaches do a good job of getting the kids some reps...which is a good thing. The bad side of that is the back door cover! The second game in LR is the one to bet! This game is all business and the Hogs take care of it. They have won SU and covered the last 4 vs. LSU or MSU (depending on year). Does Petrino run up the score??? Petrino is all business...and I mean all business. He does not care enough about the other coach to even think about it. If it happens it happens, if it doesn't it doesn't. If he did run it up, it would be for some sort of strategic reason with his players or something...it would not be to just run it up on another coach. Petrino is like a chess player...every move he makes is calculated....down to the fine details. |
HogPen | 29 |
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Quote Originally Posted by chvatalas:
Ya I see what your saying. But 1 unit for me =100$ I don't play a hole lot of games, so I take some serious time in my picks that I select. I just find it easy for me and the people that might follow what I'm wagering on. For instance I didn't play a game today in MLB, but if you go back and look at my history from yesterday I played the Yankees for 7 units. BOL this year on all your selections!!
But you never bet $100....so like I was saying you should make 1 unit = $500, because that is your lowest wager...and lowest wagers are typically a person's unit |
chvatalas | 27 |
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Quote Originally Posted by chvatalas:
A little confused about your question??
I base my plays off of four different unit levels: 5,7,10,&15. Obviously 5 being the lowest play for me and 15 being the highest. I usually place no more than 3 bets a day in football, whether it be CFB or NFL. In a year you might see me play only 3-4, 15 units games. 10 units games are around 7-10. 7 unit games are the most played game by far, with 5 unit games probably around 12-15.
If 5 unit play is your lowest...why not make this 1 unit...whatever you choose as your unit. Then 7 =1.5 units, 10 = 2 units, 15 = 3 units. It is really not a 15 unit game, it is 3 unit game...given that 5 is your lowest bet. You see what I am saying? |
chvatalas | 27 |
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Well, it could happen...but I do think it would def take some breaks going their way. I have been a big MWC fan (betting purposes) in the past so I have watched alot of their games and have really been dissapointed in Utah lately. And I am not sold on this Utah squad, but they will be decent. Given USC can't win it and their easy street schedule...they do have an outside shot. However, I would have to go with Arid_Torpor and pick Arizona State as the winner. |
belair1 | 22 |
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