As someone who follows politics well I am here to tell you why you should bet on Obama winning, I keep seeing news of "Romney is up X% in this national poll". It isn't how the race is determined. The states that are being contested by both sides resemble the 2008 election map. Romney isn't and hasn't expanding the map by going after traditionally "blue" states that Bush forced Kerry to defend like Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
I'd really like to focus on that fact that NO Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio and just about every final poll in 2008 understated Obama's win in every state. Why is this? Combination of several factors: 1) A pollster's definition of a "likely voter" doesn't likely include newly registered voters or first time/new/sporadic voters. 2) Under polling cell phone only users and minorities especially Latino voters. These groups are heavily Democratic.
Here is my math for a baseline Obama win and why Romney is going to have a very hard time winning.
-In 2004 John Kerry won 251 electoral votes. Those states are now worth 245 votes and only WI & NH are being contested by both sides (14 votes). However, New Mexico was won by Bush and is considered a solid blue state in 2012. This gives Obama a baseline of 236 votes to get to 270 votes. He needs 34 votes to seal the deal from 9 swing states.
Here are the 9 states that both sides are contending for in order of their vote totals: -Florida - 29 -Ohio - 18 -NC - 15 -VA - 13 -WI - 9 -CO - 9 -IA - 6 -NV - 6 -NH - 4
As someone who follows politics well I am here to tell you why you should bet on Obama winning, I keep seeing news of "Romney is up X% in this national poll". It isn't how the race is determined. The states that are being contested by both sides resemble the 2008 election map. Romney isn't and hasn't expanding the map by going after traditionally "blue" states that Bush forced Kerry to defend like Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
I'd really like to focus on that fact that NO Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio and just about every final poll in 2008 understated Obama's win in every state. Why is this? Combination of several factors: 1) A pollster's definition of a "likely voter" doesn't likely include newly registered voters or first time/new/sporadic voters. 2) Under polling cell phone only users and minorities especially Latino voters. These groups are heavily Democratic.
Here is my math for a baseline Obama win and why Romney is going to have a very hard time winning.
-In 2004 John Kerry won 251 electoral votes. Those states are now worth 245 votes and only WI & NH are being contested by both sides (14 votes). However, New Mexico was won by Bush and is considered a solid blue state in 2012. This gives Obama a baseline of 236 votes to get to 270 votes. He needs 34 votes to seal the deal from 9 swing states.
Here are the 9 states that both sides are contending for in order of their vote totals: -Florida - 29 -Ohio - 18 -NC - 15 -VA - 13 -WI - 9 -CO - 9 -IA - 6 -NV - 6 -NH - 4
Much of Romney's leads come from polling outfits like Rassmussen (who is flooding the market with polls). Out of curiosity here is Rassmussen's track record for their last poll's in 2008 right before the election for each of those states.
Much of Romney's leads come from polling outfits like Rassmussen (who is flooding the market with polls). Out of curiosity here is Rassmussen's track record for their last poll's in 2008 right before the election for each of those states.
Ironic that in 8 states Rassmussen understated Obama's strength in every state. In 2008 Obama won by about 6%. This is highly unlikely as there will be some erosion of his 2008 numbers. However I see things like a 13 point swing in Nevada as very unlikely to happen.
Ironic that in 8 states Rassmussen understated Obama's strength in every state. In 2008 Obama won by about 6%. This is highly unlikely as there will be some erosion of his 2008 numbers. However I see things like a 13 point swing in Nevada as very unlikely to happen.
Those are 32 votes that are pretty much dead even in polling but Obama appears to have a slight edge in WI the books think it is a solid lead though and have pegged Obama at a 3.5:1 favorite.
Those are 32 votes that are pretty much dead even in polling but Obama appears to have a slight edge in WI the books think it is a solid lead though and have pegged Obama at a 3.5:1 favorite.
Notable lines: -Overall Obama to win -260; I bought in for -180 right after the RNC and am considering getting more money in this. -Obama to win over 5 of the 9 swing states listed above EVEN. He is currently 2:1 favorite in 5 of them and even money in 2 others. I wish I could get 4.5 states but there is a good chance that he wins something like OH, NH, IA, NV, WI and either VA/CO. Even money is a good payout and I could easily see a push. Much better payout then a straight up win and if he wins he's most likely winning 6 of these 9 states anyway. -Nevada - Latinos are consistently under-sampled and if Harry Reid can win by 6% in 2010 (while having a polling average of -3%) why can't Obama in 2012? A 12 point win from 2008 with an increasing minority and youth population? I'm in big here. IMO this is the best bet. -Colorado - smaller problem of under sampling Latinos but I don't see a 9 point win from 2008 being fully erased. Very tight but I'm willing to chance this for a good payout. -Ohio - Romney hasn't polled well at all here and the state has been flooded with ads. Hard to see Romney making up the ground here and Obama is treating this as a "must win".
Notable lines: -Overall Obama to win -260; I bought in for -180 right after the RNC and am considering getting more money in this. -Obama to win over 5 of the 9 swing states listed above EVEN. He is currently 2:1 favorite in 5 of them and even money in 2 others. I wish I could get 4.5 states but there is a good chance that he wins something like OH, NH, IA, NV, WI and either VA/CO. Even money is a good payout and I could easily see a push. Much better payout then a straight up win and if he wins he's most likely winning 6 of these 9 states anyway. -Nevada - Latinos are consistently under-sampled and if Harry Reid can win by 6% in 2010 (while having a polling average of -3%) why can't Obama in 2012? A 12 point win from 2008 with an increasing minority and youth population? I'm in big here. IMO this is the best bet. -Colorado - smaller problem of under sampling Latinos but I don't see a 9 point win from 2008 being fully erased. Very tight but I'm willing to chance this for a good payout. -Ohio - Romney hasn't polled well at all here and the state has been flooded with ads. Hard to see Romney making up the ground here and Obama is treating this as a "must win".
Good read. And it is solid too. However, you won't have any success convincing the die-hard Romney lemmings. They seldom listen to facts and seem confused by the simple addition of electoral votes. Some folks are just beyond help. The only logical thing to do is take their money from the oddsmakers still willing to give it away. Easiest money to be made all year long is now ripe for the picking.
Good read. And it is solid too. However, you won't have any success convincing the die-hard Romney lemmings. They seldom listen to facts and seem confused by the simple addition of electoral votes. Some folks are just beyond help. The only logical thing to do is take their money from the oddsmakers still willing to give it away. Easiest money to be made all year long is now ripe for the picking.
Romney is leading Ohio in all turnout models that have any likelihood of occurring:
O+2.43% - Current RCP Average R+7.35% - Average using the 2004 turnout model O+2.25% - Average using the 2008 turnout model R+4.09% - Average using the 2010 turnout model R+3.37% - Average using the 2012 registration model R+1.16% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
Romney is leading Ohio in all turnout models that have any likelihood of occurring:
O+2.43% - Current RCP Average R+7.35% - Average using the 2004 turnout model O+2.25% - Average using the 2008 turnout model R+4.09% - Average using the 2010 turnout model R+3.37% - Average using the 2012 registration model R+1.16% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
-Florida - 29 Going red. trading 65% bid romney. Obama not focusing there. -Ohio - 18 (entire election right here) 49/48 obama at moment). Lets leave it out. -NC - 15 RED LOCK. 80% bid -450 juice. -VA - 13 60% bid Romney. Not a lock but Obama not campaigning here anymore says a lot. Romney wins this comfortably, but not as comfortable as NC or FL. -WI - 9 60% bid Obama -CO - 9 Romney leading in polls and on intrade. Historically went red until 2008. -IA - 6 Obama should win -NV - 6 Obama should win -NH - 4 Obama should win
So i see 236 + 6+6+4 = 252 basecase for Obama. Wisconsin likely obama lets give him that, 261. Colorado I firmly believe the conservative base comes out massively there its an easy cover for romney. So the entire election comes down to Ohio, which is a pick em. So pickem how i see this.
Also, note Wisconsin and Michigan are trending stronger recently for Romney. Michigan could be the ultimate backdoor cover for Romney, heard it here first. Latest poll was 44/41 obama i saw. Michigan has 16 electoral votes.
-Florida - 29 Going red. trading 65% bid romney. Obama not focusing there. -Ohio - 18 (entire election right here) 49/48 obama at moment). Lets leave it out. -NC - 15 RED LOCK. 80% bid -450 juice. -VA - 13 60% bid Romney. Not a lock but Obama not campaigning here anymore says a lot. Romney wins this comfortably, but not as comfortable as NC or FL. -WI - 9 60% bid Obama -CO - 9 Romney leading in polls and on intrade. Historically went red until 2008. -IA - 6 Obama should win -NV - 6 Obama should win -NH - 4 Obama should win
So i see 236 + 6+6+4 = 252 basecase for Obama. Wisconsin likely obama lets give him that, 261. Colorado I firmly believe the conservative base comes out massively there its an easy cover for romney. So the entire election comes down to Ohio, which is a pick em. So pickem how i see this.
Also, note Wisconsin and Michigan are trending stronger recently for Romney. Michigan could be the ultimate backdoor cover for Romney, heard it here first. Latest poll was 44/41 obama i saw. Michigan has 16 electoral votes.
Wisconsin is back to a very familiar place in the partisan political wars, according to the latest poll by Marquette Law School: almost perfect parity.
President Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 48% in a survey of 870 likely voters taken Oct. 11-14.
Two weeks earlier, Obama led by 11 points in Marquette’s polling.
Wisconsin is back to a very familiar place in the partisan political wars, according to the latest poll by Marquette Law School: almost perfect parity.
President Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 48% in a survey of 870 likely voters taken Oct. 11-14.
Two weeks earlier, Obama led by 11 points in Marquette’s polling.
That is pretty thoughtful post. I think what you're seeing in those Rassmussen discrepencies is a product of the complete lack of enthusiasm there was for McCain (hell, I didn't even vote for him). People said they were going to vote McCain, but just stayed home. Don't think you'll see that this time around.
There is something funny about all of this, because the polls don't seem to match some of the reality you're seeing on the ground. For example, it looks like PA is in play, but the Romney camp doesn't seem to think so - or thinks it's such a long shot that it's not worth worrying about. They are holding events within 30 minutes of the PA border, but, as far as I am aware, have nothing planned in the Commonwealth. Other states, like VA and NC, poll like they're in play, but the Obama camp doesn't seem too interested.
That is pretty thoughtful post. I think what you're seeing in those Rassmussen discrepencies is a product of the complete lack of enthusiasm there was for McCain (hell, I didn't even vote for him). People said they were going to vote McCain, but just stayed home. Don't think you'll see that this time around.
There is something funny about all of this, because the polls don't seem to match some of the reality you're seeing on the ground. For example, it looks like PA is in play, but the Romney camp doesn't seem to think so - or thinks it's such a long shot that it's not worth worrying about. They are holding events within 30 minutes of the PA border, but, as far as I am aware, have nothing planned in the Commonwealth. Other states, like VA and NC, poll like they're in play, but the Obama camp doesn't seem too interested.
You're right, this isn't that much fun. I thought you would actually put up a valid point against Cool Arrow. I guess I was wrong. He was just able to discredit the polls you rely so heavily on in your arguments on here and you did nothing to stop it.
You're right, this isn't that much fun. I thought you would actually put up a valid point against Cool Arrow. I guess I was wrong. He was just able to discredit the polls you rely so heavily on in your arguments on here and you did nothing to stop it.
I took Romney before the 1st debate and am getting back +270
I continue to feel he will win. Romney will win Virginia, Florida, NC, and Colorado. Ohio will be very close but I think Obama will win. I have NH and Nevada going to Obama but Romney takes Iowa.
I have the election as 274-264 with Romney picking up 1 electoral vote in Maine.
I took Romney before the 1st debate and am getting back +270
I continue to feel he will win. Romney will win Virginia, Florida, NC, and Colorado. Ohio will be very close but I think Obama will win. I have NH and Nevada going to Obama but Romney takes Iowa.
I have the election as 274-264 with Romney picking up 1 electoral vote in Maine.
I took Romney before the 1st debate and am getting back +270
I continue to feel he will win. Romney will win Virginia, Florida, NC, and Colorado. Ohio will be very close but I think Obama will win. I have NH and Nevada going to Obama but Romney takes Iowa.
I have the election as 274-264 with Romney picking up 1 electoral vote in Maine.
I took Romney before the 1st debate and am getting back +270
I continue to feel he will win. Romney will win Virginia, Florida, NC, and Colorado. Ohio will be very close but I think Obama will win. I have NH and Nevada going to Obama but Romney takes Iowa.
I have the election as 274-264 with Romney picking up 1 electoral vote in Maine.
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