I knew that it would catch up with me after a half point win the week before... I think that I have to remember although BAL had performed well historically +13 points ATS this was the not first game that their offense stunk...
The angle of the home dog coming off of a bye stayed true... I will continue to ride that angle... not there this week tho...
Quick review of what I do...
1. 4 team 13 point teaser: -120 odds 2. 1 unit = 10% of bank roll... 2unit max, 1/2 unit min 3. I only play sides, no totals 4. no mixing with college or other sports, pure NFL
So here we go...
STL +26.5
I think that it would seem more logical to take NO money line, but considering last week's scoring explosion an STL not covering double digit spreads 2 games in a row this line has to be somewhat inflated... Also this large number a number often attributed to home teams, not away... Bradford should be in which should make it more competitive then the DAL game...
I knew that it would catch up with me after a half point win the week before... I think that I have to remember although BAL had performed well historically +13 points ATS this was the not first game that their offense stunk...
The angle of the home dog coming off of a bye stayed true... I will continue to ride that angle... not there this week tho...
Quick review of what I do...
1. 4 team 13 point teaser: -120 odds 2. 1 unit = 10% of bank roll... 2unit max, 1/2 unit min 3. I only play sides, no totals 4. no mixing with college or other sports, pure NFL
So here we go...
STL +26.5
I think that it would seem more logical to take NO money line, but considering last week's scoring explosion an STL not covering double digit spreads 2 games in a row this line has to be somewhat inflated... Also this large number a number often attributed to home teams, not away... Bradford should be in which should make it more competitive then the DAL game...
I got crushed on my teaser last week because of BAL.
This week though, teasing BAL down to 0 makes a lot of sense. Coming off an embarrassment of a game, at home, against a real shitty defense. BAL is still a great time, but we all found out that they just can't play well on the road or against a good defense.
I got crushed on my teaser last week because of BAL.
This week though, teasing BAL down to 0 makes a lot of sense. Coming off an embarrassment of a game, at home, against a real shitty defense. BAL is still a great time, but we all found out that they just can't play well on the road or against a good defense.
dl thanks again for the stats on the home dog/bye week, it was a tough call between zona and baltimore but your numbers swayed my opinion and it worked out for the best...this week i like the saints in a dome vs the rams to win straight up, i also like san fran this week vs a cleveland team that really stuggles to score, which means the games gonna be close at worst. i think baltimore bounces back in a big way this week vs zona, and i like houston to win vs jax who cant seem to score anything but fg's.
dl thanks again for the stats on the home dog/bye week, it was a tough call between zona and baltimore but your numbers swayed my opinion and it worked out for the best...this week i like the saints in a dome vs the rams to win straight up, i also like san fran this week vs a cleveland team that really stuggles to score, which means the games gonna be close at worst. i think baltimore bounces back in a big way this week vs zona, and i like houston to win vs jax who cant seem to score anything but fg's.
1) Ravens PK - self explanatory 2) 49ers +4 - one of the best defenses in the league playing at home off a bye against the browns who scored 6 points last week at home. Browns best player is their RB who is injured and going up against a top rushing defense. 3) Seahawks +16 - Seahawks are a different team at home and the Bengals cant win by 17 against anyone, especially on the road with a rookie QB, oh and bengals are horrible off the bye week under Marvin Lewis. 4) Chiefs +16.5 - MNF home teams never lose by this much. Chiefs very good defense, divisional game.
1) Ravens PK - self explanatory 2) 49ers +4 - one of the best defenses in the league playing at home off a bye against the browns who scored 6 points last week at home. Browns best player is their RB who is injured and going up against a top rushing defense. 3) Seahawks +16 - Seahawks are a different team at home and the Bengals cant win by 17 against anyone, especially on the road with a rookie QB, oh and bengals are horrible off the bye week under Marvin Lewis. 4) Chiefs +16.5 - MNF home teams never lose by this much. Chiefs very good defense, divisional game.
1) Ravens PK - self explanatory 2) 49ers +4 - one of the best defenses in the league playing at home off a bye against the browns who scored 6 points last week at home. Browns best player is their RB who is injured and going up against a top rushing defense. 3) Seahawks +16 - Seahawks are a different team at home and the Bengals cant win by 17 against anyone, especially on the road with a rookie QB, oh and bengals are horrible off the bye week under Marvin Lewis. 4) Chiefs +16.5 - MNF home teams never lose by this much. Chiefs very good defense, divisional game.
There's your winner right there
A bit scared about 49ers +4. Teams off the bye have been weak this season due to the new practice rules in the new CBA. SF may come out unprepared. The other 3 will come through.
1) Ravens PK - self explanatory 2) 49ers +4 - one of the best defenses in the league playing at home off a bye against the browns who scored 6 points last week at home. Browns best player is their RB who is injured and going up against a top rushing defense. 3) Seahawks +16 - Seahawks are a different team at home and the Bengals cant win by 17 against anyone, especially on the road with a rookie QB, oh and bengals are horrible off the bye week under Marvin Lewis. 4) Chiefs +16.5 - MNF home teams never lose by this much. Chiefs very good defense, divisional game.
There's your winner right there
A bit scared about 49ers +4. Teams off the bye have been weak this season due to the new practice rules in the new CBA. SF may come out unprepared. The other 3 will come through.
A bit scared about 49ers +4. Teams off the bye have been weak this season due to the new practice rules in the new CBA. SF may come out unprepared. The other 3 will come through.
Here's where your wrong. Bad teams have come off the bye poorly, there the ones affected the most not having the extra 4 days practice. Good teams will not suffer from the new rules because well, there veterans. Take the Patriots for example, Brady organized player-only workout this week during the bye. Thats leadership. Both the Cowboys and Chargers came out strong off their bye last week.
A bit scared about 49ers +4. Teams off the bye have been weak this season due to the new practice rules in the new CBA. SF may come out unprepared. The other 3 will come through.
Here's where your wrong. Bad teams have come off the bye poorly, there the ones affected the most not having the extra 4 days practice. Good teams will not suffer from the new rules because well, there veterans. Take the Patriots for example, Brady organized player-only workout this week during the bye. Thats leadership. Both the Cowboys and Chargers came out strong off their bye last week.
Here's where your wrong. Bad teams have come off the bye poorly, there the ones affected the most not having the extra 4 days practice. Good teams will not suffer from the new rules because well, there veterans. Take the Patriots for example, Brady organized player-only workout this week during the bye. Thats leadership. Both the Cowboys and Chargers came out strong off their bye last week.
Here's where you're wrong (aside from the ridiculously poor grammar). SF has yet to prove they are a good team (in my opinion). I have no doubt that NE wins this week and covers (after their bye week). I believe that SF fits into the "bad team" category, or at worst, the overrated category. CLE is getting healthy on defense, although their Offense isn't very good.
I'm just saying that the 49ers are not an optimal pick on a 13-point teaser, in my opinion. BOL to you.
Here's where your wrong. Bad teams have come off the bye poorly, there the ones affected the most not having the extra 4 days practice. Good teams will not suffer from the new rules because well, there veterans. Take the Patriots for example, Brady organized player-only workout this week during the bye. Thats leadership. Both the Cowboys and Chargers came out strong off their bye last week.
Here's where you're wrong (aside from the ridiculously poor grammar). SF has yet to prove they are a good team (in my opinion). I have no doubt that NE wins this week and covers (after their bye week). I believe that SF fits into the "bad team" category, or at worst, the overrated category. CLE is getting healthy on defense, although their Offense isn't very good.
I'm just saying that the 49ers are not an optimal pick on a 13-point teaser, in my opinion. BOL to you.
NO -1... Lines probably higher after Sun debacle but it's indoor and don't think Bradford playing as he hasn't practice so far. Rd game but still indoor. Bal -1/2... Bal 11-1 last 12 home, team in pissy mood after Mon nite. Sea +16... Sea nite/day home/away, Cin offense below ave and Sea def good.
You keep pretty good record so u know when was last time a 13-15 1/2 pt fav lose SU or not covered the 13-pt tease?
NO -1... Lines probably higher after Sun debacle but it's indoor and don't think Bradford playing as he hasn't practice so far. Rd game but still indoor. Bal -1/2... Bal 11-1 last 12 home, team in pissy mood after Mon nite. Sea +16... Sea nite/day home/away, Cin offense below ave and Sea def good.
You keep pretty good record so u know when was last time a 13-15 1/2 pt fav lose SU or not covered the 13-pt tease?
Here's where you're wrong (aside from the ridiculously poor grammar). SF has yet to prove they are a good team (in my opinion). I have no doubt that NE wins this week and covers (after their bye week). I believe that SF fits into the "bad team" category, or at worst, the overrated category. CLE is getting healthy on defense, although their Offense isn't very good.
I'm just saying that the 49ers are not an optimal pick on a 13-point teaser, in my opinion. BOL to you.
Respect your opinion. Would you rather tease cleveland 13 points then SF though? To me I would rather have SF+4 then Cleveland +21.
Here's where you're wrong (aside from the ridiculously poor grammar). SF has yet to prove they are a good team (in my opinion). I have no doubt that NE wins this week and covers (after their bye week). I believe that SF fits into the "bad team" category, or at worst, the overrated category. CLE is getting healthy on defense, although their Offense isn't very good.
I'm just saying that the 49ers are not an optimal pick on a 13-point teaser, in my opinion. BOL to you.
Respect your opinion. Would you rather tease cleveland 13 points then SF though? To me I would rather have SF+4 then Cleveland +21.
NO -1... Lines probably higher after Sun debacle but it's indoor and don't think Bradford playing as he hasn't practice so far. Rd game but still indoor. Bal -1/2... Bal 11-1 last 12 home, team in pissy mood after Mon nite. Sea +16... Sea nite/day home/away, Cin offense below ave and Sea def good.
You keep pretty good record so u know when was last time a 13-15 1/2 pt fav lose SU or not covered the 13-pt tease?
NO -1... Lines probably higher after Sun debacle but it's indoor and don't think Bradford playing as he hasn't practice so far. Rd game but still indoor. Bal -1/2... Bal 11-1 last 12 home, team in pissy mood after Mon nite. Sea +16... Sea nite/day home/away, Cin offense below ave and Sea def good.
You keep pretty good record so u know when was last time a 13-15 1/2 pt fav lose SU or not covered the 13-pt tease?
Respect your opinion. Would you rather tease cleveland 13 points then SF though? To me I would rather have SF+4 then Cleveland +21.
I just don't like the game as a whole. If you hand to twist my arm, I think it's going to be a low scoring game, which makes me inclined to take the +21. My problem is that I just don't believe in SF's offense just yet. If Alex Smith has a typical Alex Smith game (and not the above average stuff he's been doing altely), CLE could win this by 7. CLE is a better team than last year, and I still remember the 3 game stretch last year where they went on the road to beat NO, then beat NE and then blow a late 7 point lead against the NYJ, all to lose in OT. Now, CLE is finally healthy on defense, and Fujita is coming back?
I'm confident I'm overthinking this game, and you're probably right that SF wins comfortably.
This week seems to have a lot of great teaser games I'm more certain of, which is why I want to avoid this one.
Respect your opinion. Would you rather tease cleveland 13 points then SF though? To me I would rather have SF+4 then Cleveland +21.
I just don't like the game as a whole. If you hand to twist my arm, I think it's going to be a low scoring game, which makes me inclined to take the +21. My problem is that I just don't believe in SF's offense just yet. If Alex Smith has a typical Alex Smith game (and not the above average stuff he's been doing altely), CLE could win this by 7. CLE is a better team than last year, and I still remember the 3 game stretch last year where they went on the road to beat NO, then beat NE and then blow a late 7 point lead against the NYJ, all to lose in OT. Now, CLE is finally healthy on defense, and Fujita is coming back?
I'm confident I'm overthinking this game, and you're probably right that SF wins comfortably.
This week seems to have a lot of great teaser games I'm more certain of, which is why I want to avoid this one.
dl thanks again for the stats on the home dog/bye week, it was a tough call between zona and baltimore but your numbers swayed my opinion and it worked out for the best...this week i like the saints in a dome vs the rams to win straight up, i also like san fran this week vs a cleveland team that really stuggles to score, which means the games gonna be close at worst. i think baltimore bounces back in a big way this week vs zona, and i like houston to win vs jax who cant seem to score anything but fg's.
dl thanks again for the stats on the home dog/bye week, it was a tough call between zona and baltimore but your numbers swayed my opinion and it worked out for the best...this week i like the saints in a dome vs the rams to win straight up, i also like san fran this week vs a cleveland team that really stuggles to score, which means the games gonna be close at worst. i think baltimore bounces back in a big way this week vs zona, and i like houston to win vs jax who cant seem to score anything but fg's.
Clev +22 49ers already had their blowout win for the season vs the Bucs
Detroit +10 Tebow cannot beat these guys by more than 7
SD +10 SD got shut out in the 2nd half vs the Jets offense will put up some points on MNF
Between PIT or NE, I would lean towards NE +13 points ATS... should be close but the offensive fire power of both team could lead to some variability in outcome...
I will lay off of the DET game because of QB injury, but I think that there might be value in getting more then 7 points as tebow might be overrated right now...
not sure about SD, although I am inclined to avoid them as a road fav
Clev +22 49ers already had their blowout win for the season vs the Bucs
Detroit +10 Tebow cannot beat these guys by more than 7
SD +10 SD got shut out in the 2nd half vs the Jets offense will put up some points on MNF
Between PIT or NE, I would lean towards NE +13 points ATS... should be close but the offensive fire power of both team could lead to some variability in outcome...
I will lay off of the DET game because of QB injury, but I think that there might be value in getting more then 7 points as tebow might be overrated right now...
not sure about SD, although I am inclined to avoid them as a road fav
1) Ravens PK - self explanatory 2) 49ers +4 - one of the best defenses in the league playing at home off a bye against the browns who scored 6 points last week at home. Browns best player is their RB who is injured and going up against a top rushing defense. 3) Seahawks +16 - Seahawks are a different team at home and the Bengals cant win by 17 against anyone, especially on the road with a rookie QB, oh and bengals are horrible off the bye week under Marvin Lewis. 4) Chiefs +16.5 - MNF home teams never lose by this much. Chiefs very good defense, divisional game.
There's your winner right there
SEA is an interesting play because you get great value with it being so low scoring... what would worry me is if SEA turns the ball over resulting in defensive scores for CIN...
CIN being poor off of a bye is an angle that I will look at...
2010 : Lost 32-39 as +3.5 dogs at ATL 2009: Won 17-7 as +3 dogs at home against BAL 2008: Tied 13-13 as +9 point dogs at home against PHI 2007: Lost 20-27 as -3 point favs at KC 2006 Lost 13-14 as -4.5 point favs at TB 2005 Lost 37-45 as +5.5 point dogs at home against IND 2004 : Lost 17-34 as +2.5 point dogs at CLE 2003: Won 34-26 as +2 point dogs against BAL at home
So they are 2-5-1 off of bye during the lewis era...
They are 6-1 +13 points +13 points ATS and They are 6-1 fading them +13 points ATS
So perhaps from an ATS angle what you are saying makes sense... but from a +13 points angle either for or against makes no differences and does not appear to carry any statistical significance...
interestingly through 6 games CIN already has as many wins as last season... this may speak to where they are at, but also speak to them being overrated as favs on the road...
1) Ravens PK - self explanatory 2) 49ers +4 - one of the best defenses in the league playing at home off a bye against the browns who scored 6 points last week at home. Browns best player is their RB who is injured and going up against a top rushing defense. 3) Seahawks +16 - Seahawks are a different team at home and the Bengals cant win by 17 against anyone, especially on the road with a rookie QB, oh and bengals are horrible off the bye week under Marvin Lewis. 4) Chiefs +16.5 - MNF home teams never lose by this much. Chiefs very good defense, divisional game.
There's your winner right there
SEA is an interesting play because you get great value with it being so low scoring... what would worry me is if SEA turns the ball over resulting in defensive scores for CIN...
CIN being poor off of a bye is an angle that I will look at...
2010 : Lost 32-39 as +3.5 dogs at ATL 2009: Won 17-7 as +3 dogs at home against BAL 2008: Tied 13-13 as +9 point dogs at home against PHI 2007: Lost 20-27 as -3 point favs at KC 2006 Lost 13-14 as -4.5 point favs at TB 2005 Lost 37-45 as +5.5 point dogs at home against IND 2004 : Lost 17-34 as +2.5 point dogs at CLE 2003: Won 34-26 as +2 point dogs against BAL at home
So they are 2-5-1 off of bye during the lewis era...
They are 6-1 +13 points +13 points ATS and They are 6-1 fading them +13 points ATS
So perhaps from an ATS angle what you are saying makes sense... but from a +13 points angle either for or against makes no differences and does not appear to carry any statistical significance...
interestingly through 6 games CIN already has as many wins as last season... this may speak to where they are at, but also speak to them being overrated as favs on the road...
4 home teams all with great value, your best bet for a teaser^^
good point in theory, but my understanding is that historically +13 points there is no significant difference between home and away... I think this is because the spread accounts for the home field advantage...
4 home teams all with great value, your best bet for a teaser^^
good point in theory, but my understanding is that historically +13 points there is no significant difference between home and away... I think this is because the spread accounts for the home field advantage...
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