·I am going to try Colts again this week as they
are solid due up to bounce back this week.
They have a spread range value of 12, and have a critical game this week
against Titans needing to avoid a 0-3 start and falling 2 games back plus a
tiebreaker in the division. The Titans
still have a lousy defense that Manziel was able to exploit, and if he can do
it then Luck should be able to do it.
The Colts should be in good shape if they can clean up some of the
turnovers and penalties they have been committing, and they have plenty of
seasoned veterans that have been in this situation before and should know how
the dig themselves out of this hole. The
Colts have owned the Titans in the Luck era covering their last 7 games against
the Titans, and with emotion on their side should have no problem doing it
again. Luck is still 13-2 ATS after a
loss, and Luck is 14-3 ATS against division foes. The Titans have been rotten in the division
and home the last few years Titans are 5-19-2 ATS
in their last 26 vs. AFC South. Titans are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home
games. The Colts have feasted on their
inferior opponents in the division, and they should be pretty hungry right
now.
49ers +7
This
game features 2 key pointers I use find bets.
The Cardinals are coming off 2 30+ point performances, and the margin of
victory/defeat has a difference of more than 50 points. So, the 49ers should have emotion and
motivation on their side. The poor
showing for the 49ers last week had a lot to do with major scheduling disadvantage
that they had to deal with, and I think this defense will be hyped up to slow
down the high-flying Cardinals. It
appears that the Cardinals have enjoyed a couple of cupcake weeks as the Saints
are obviously showing they are bad losing the Bucs at home and beating the
hapless Bears as the Bears were a turnover and penalty machine last week. Kaepernick has had great success against this
Cardinals defense with 9 Td’s and 1 INT with a 106.2 passer rating in 5 career
starts against Arizona. Palmer is 0-3 in his career against the 49ers. The Niners have covered 7 of last 9 games playing
in Arizona.
Suuma
Carson Palmer and Arizona beat SF last year in Arizona. So he is not 0-3 vs SF. In fact I see a lot of what happened in last years game repeating - mainly AZ shredding SF thru the air (actually SF did well but the refs hosed them in that game giving AZ all kinda of first downs).
·I am going to try Colts again this week as they
are solid due up to bounce back this week.
They have a spread range value of 12, and have a critical game this week
against Titans needing to avoid a 0-3 start and falling 2 games back plus a
tiebreaker in the division. The Titans
still have a lousy defense that Manziel was able to exploit, and if he can do
it then Luck should be able to do it.
The Colts should be in good shape if they can clean up some of the
turnovers and penalties they have been committing, and they have plenty of
seasoned veterans that have been in this situation before and should know how
the dig themselves out of this hole. The
Colts have owned the Titans in the Luck era covering their last 7 games against
the Titans, and with emotion on their side should have no problem doing it
again. Luck is still 13-2 ATS after a
loss, and Luck is 14-3 ATS against division foes. The Titans have been rotten in the division
and home the last few years Titans are 5-19-2 ATS
in their last 26 vs. AFC South. Titans are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home
games. The Colts have feasted on their
inferior opponents in the division, and they should be pretty hungry right
now.
49ers +7
This
game features 2 key pointers I use find bets.
The Cardinals are coming off 2 30+ point performances, and the margin of
victory/defeat has a difference of more than 50 points. So, the 49ers should have emotion and
motivation on their side. The poor
showing for the 49ers last week had a lot to do with major scheduling disadvantage
that they had to deal with, and I think this defense will be hyped up to slow
down the high-flying Cardinals. It
appears that the Cardinals have enjoyed a couple of cupcake weeks as the Saints
are obviously showing they are bad losing the Bucs at home and beating the
hapless Bears as the Bears were a turnover and penalty machine last week. Kaepernick has had great success against this
Cardinals defense with 9 Td’s and 1 INT with a 106.2 passer rating in 5 career
starts against Arizona. Palmer is 0-3 in his career against the 49ers. The Niners have covered 7 of last 9 games playing
in Arizona.
Suuma
Carson Palmer and Arizona beat SF last year in Arizona. So he is not 0-3 vs SF. In fact I see a lot of what happened in last years game repeating - mainly AZ shredding SF thru the air (actually SF did well but the refs hosed them in that game giving AZ all kinda of first downs).
Another game with a huge situational edge going to home dog
with the Rams coming out a flat loss and horrible gameplan against the Skins,
and the Steelers riding high after routing the Niners in their home
opener. The Steelers have a big time
letdown spot here as they will probably be looking ahead to facing their bitter
division rival the Ravens on Thursday Night.
The Rams will be much better on defense at home and should be able to
pressure Big Ben with their front 4, and the Pouncey injury will really hurt Pittsburgh
in this one. Foles should be able to
expose some of the Steelers weaknesses in the secondary to make some big plays
at home for the Rams. Fading the Steelers off a big win
and backing the Rams off a big loss have been wise investments. Pittsburgh is
just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win by more than 14 points,
while the Rams are 11-1 ATS under Fisher off a loss by 14 or more points.
Steelers are 7-19 ATS as road
favorites coming off a win under Tomlin.
Also, the Rams were the public darlings last week when they faced the
Skins, and it is amazing how one bad game changes perception as now they are
only backed by 18% of the public bets. Rams pull off another home upset 27-24.
Eagles +3
This is a game where regression
will loom its ugly head. The Eagles are
not as bad as they have shown so far(just look how good they were in the second
half of the Falcons), and the Jets are not as good as they have shown so far. This is a horrible spot for the Jets as they
are coming off an emotional, and lucky win over the Colts Monday Night, who
played probably their worst game yet under the Luck era. Also, the Jets must travel to London next
week to play their arch-rival the Dolphins and teams that have game in London
the following week are horrid 6-14 ATS and 3-8 ATS as favorites. The Eagles should be far more motivated to
stay away from 0-3 and falling further out the division race. This trend probably means nothing for this
matchup, but the Eagles have never lost to the Jets in NFL History. According to my handicapping, the Eagles are
due up team, and the Jets are due down team and the Eagles have a spread range
value of 20. Eagles get their first win 20-17
Chiefs +7.5
The Chiefs coming off
tough loss in a game they should of won, since they won in the key stat of
yards per pass yet committed more turnovers this is a phony loss in my
book. Andy Reid is 18-7 ATS in his last
25 games coached where his team is playing on the road after an upset loss as a
favorite, and he is 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000. So, he
should have his Chiefs fired up for a good showing on Monday Night. The Packers are in a tough spot coming off a
huge revenge win of the Seahawks, and favorites after playing the Seahawks are
7-24 ATS in the last 31 instances. The
matchup is also favorable for the Chiefs, as their strength the running game
will face off against the Packers defense which run defense as they have
allowed 5.3 yards per carry to start the season. The Chiefs should be able to get some good
pressure on Rodgers that will give him some problems, and Lacy being banged up
makes things easier on the Chiefs. The
Chiefs have been pretty good in the turnover department since Reid has arrived,
and it is doubtful that will repeat again in this matchup. Chiefs have covered 6 of the last 7 meeting,
and I don’t see the trend changing here.
Packers win but don’t cover 31-27.
Another game with a huge situational edge going to home dog
with the Rams coming out a flat loss and horrible gameplan against the Skins,
and the Steelers riding high after routing the Niners in their home
opener. The Steelers have a big time
letdown spot here as they will probably be looking ahead to facing their bitter
division rival the Ravens on Thursday Night.
The Rams will be much better on defense at home and should be able to
pressure Big Ben with their front 4, and the Pouncey injury will really hurt Pittsburgh
in this one. Foles should be able to
expose some of the Steelers weaknesses in the secondary to make some big plays
at home for the Rams. Fading the Steelers off a big win
and backing the Rams off a big loss have been wise investments. Pittsburgh is
just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win by more than 14 points,
while the Rams are 11-1 ATS under Fisher off a loss by 14 or more points.
Steelers are 7-19 ATS as road
favorites coming off a win under Tomlin.
Also, the Rams were the public darlings last week when they faced the
Skins, and it is amazing how one bad game changes perception as now they are
only backed by 18% of the public bets. Rams pull off another home upset 27-24.
Eagles +3
This is a game where regression
will loom its ugly head. The Eagles are
not as bad as they have shown so far(just look how good they were in the second
half of the Falcons), and the Jets are not as good as they have shown so far. This is a horrible spot for the Jets as they
are coming off an emotional, and lucky win over the Colts Monday Night, who
played probably their worst game yet under the Luck era. Also, the Jets must travel to London next
week to play their arch-rival the Dolphins and teams that have game in London
the following week are horrid 6-14 ATS and 3-8 ATS as favorites. The Eagles should be far more motivated to
stay away from 0-3 and falling further out the division race. This trend probably means nothing for this
matchup, but the Eagles have never lost to the Jets in NFL History. According to my handicapping, the Eagles are
due up team, and the Jets are due down team and the Eagles have a spread range
value of 20. Eagles get their first win 20-17
Chiefs +7.5
The Chiefs coming off
tough loss in a game they should of won, since they won in the key stat of
yards per pass yet committed more turnovers this is a phony loss in my
book. Andy Reid is 18-7 ATS in his last
25 games coached where his team is playing on the road after an upset loss as a
favorite, and he is 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000. So, he
should have his Chiefs fired up for a good showing on Monday Night. The Packers are in a tough spot coming off a
huge revenge win of the Seahawks, and favorites after playing the Seahawks are
7-24 ATS in the last 31 instances. The
matchup is also favorable for the Chiefs, as their strength the running game
will face off against the Packers defense which run defense as they have
allowed 5.3 yards per carry to start the season. The Chiefs should be able to get some good
pressure on Rodgers that will give him some problems, and Lacy being banged up
makes things easier on the Chiefs. The
Chiefs have been pretty good in the turnover department since Reid has arrived,
and it is doubtful that will repeat again in this matchup. Chiefs have covered 6 of the last 7 meeting,
and I don’t see the trend changing here.
Packers win but don’t cover 31-27.
How do you not see the Pats controlling the Jags all day tomorrow? I'd take the Pats -28 for the right odds. The Jags should have plenty of punts which sets up Brady to continue his campaign for the best season of all-time...Those are just the facts.
they'll be up 14 after the first...
I picked the Pats to cover here on the NFL contest. However, I seldomly if ever play huge double digit favorites in the NFL. It just a matter of taste. The NFL are generally sportsmanlike and run out the clock with the lead in the 4th quarter so that cuts off at least 5 minutes of game for a big favorite to cover. Losing points and losing time is not a wagering proposition I am big fan of.The Pats are coming off a huge win in Buffalo going into a bye week, so worry of a letdown here. The Jags have improved on defense, and Bortles has played respectable for most part. So this is a pass for me.
How do you not see the Pats controlling the Jags all day tomorrow? I'd take the Pats -28 for the right odds. The Jags should have plenty of punts which sets up Brady to continue his campaign for the best season of all-time...Those are just the facts.
they'll be up 14 after the first...
I picked the Pats to cover here on the NFL contest. However, I seldomly if ever play huge double digit favorites in the NFL. It just a matter of taste. The NFL are generally sportsmanlike and run out the clock with the lead in the 4th quarter so that cuts off at least 5 minutes of game for a big favorite to cover. Losing points and losing time is not a wagering proposition I am big fan of.The Pats are coming off a huge win in Buffalo going into a bye week, so worry of a letdown here. The Jags have improved on defense, and Bortles has played respectable for most part. So this is a pass for me.
Carson Palmer and Arizona beat SF last year in Arizona. So he is not 0-3 vs SF. In fact I see a lot of what happened in last years game repeating - mainly AZ shredding SF thru the air (actually SF did well but the refs hosed them in that game giving AZ all kinda of first downs).
It is possible that could happen, but I don't rate the Niners defense as bad as they showed in Pittsburgh as that was a brutal scheduling quirk. Arizona has enjoyed some soft defenses and unmotivated teams to start the season. I expect the Niners to be fired up for this game much like they were in the opener against the Vikings.
Carson Palmer and Arizona beat SF last year in Arizona. So he is not 0-3 vs SF. In fact I see a lot of what happened in last years game repeating - mainly AZ shredding SF thru the air (actually SF did well but the refs hosed them in that game giving AZ all kinda of first downs).
It is possible that could happen, but I don't rate the Niners defense as bad as they showed in Pittsburgh as that was a brutal scheduling quirk. Arizona has enjoyed some soft defenses and unmotivated teams to start the season. I expect the Niners to be fired up for this game much like they were in the opener against the Vikings.
Hey, did you see the NFL channel story about Brandon Wegher?
I dated his mom when she lived in Hinton. He does have my talent.
Cool, small world isn't it. He played for my High School's arch rival Sioux City Heelan Crusaders. I went to Sioux City North, but I am still rooting for him to get into the NFL somehow and do not see the show yet.
Hey, did you see the NFL channel story about Brandon Wegher?
I dated his mom when she lived in Hinton. He does have my talent.
Cool, small world isn't it. He played for my High School's arch rival Sioux City Heelan Crusaders. I went to Sioux City North, but I am still rooting for him to get into the NFL somehow and do not see the show yet.
Had to bet against your team and my team the Bengals. I bet with my head and not my heart, just how it is. I like betting against my team sometimes because it is a win either way for me. Steelers lose this week and pound the Ravens next week.
Had to bet against your team and my team the Bengals. I bet with my head and not my heart, just how it is. I like betting against my team sometimes because it is a win either way for me. Steelers lose this week and pound the Ravens next week.
Lol North has never been the same at football since I graduated, just one of those things. Matt Chatham was my teammate at North, a 3 time super bowl champion. Played against Kirk Hinrich in high school too.
Lol North has never been the same at football since I graduated, just one of those things. Matt Chatham was my teammate at North, a 3 time super bowl champion. Played against Kirk Hinrich in high school too.
I can't see how Chicago can win anywhere right now.
I like the trio Oakland has of Carr, Murray, Cooper. They could do some damage out west this year. I am staying away because Oakland coming off a road win and then they make be looking ahead to their Super Bowl at home against Denver this week. The Bears are bad, but may not be as bad as every one thinks, their schedule of Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks has been brutal to start the season. They led the Packers at the half, they were in the game with the Cardinals until Cutler got hurt, and it was 6-0 at the half in Seattle. They didn't exert a lot of energy in Seattle, so I expect a desparate effort with them being 0-3
I can't see how Chicago can win anywhere right now.
I like the trio Oakland has of Carr, Murray, Cooper. They could do some damage out west this year. I am staying away because Oakland coming off a road win and then they make be looking ahead to their Super Bowl at home against Denver this week. The Bears are bad, but may not be as bad as every one thinks, their schedule of Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks has been brutal to start the season. They led the Packers at the half, they were in the game with the Cardinals until Cutler got hurt, and it was 6-0 at the half in Seattle. They didn't exert a lot of energy in Seattle, so I expect a desparate effort with them being 0-3
How are the Vikings going to cover a 7 point spread IN DENVER against that monstrous defense?
Analysis
Vikings +7
Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points
who have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and are winning between
60% to 75% of their games are 35-10 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when
playing another team with a winning record.
Broncos has not been dominating
anyone yet, and to lay 7 on team in the NFL means you believe they will
dominate. The Broncos could very easily be 0-3 if a few lucky plays had not
gone there way. The combined record of opponents
for the Broncos are 1-8.
Broncos gave up 144 yards on 29
carries to Jamaal Charles, and they face another premier back who has been
playing well in Adrian Peterson.
Vikings were dominant in their 2
wins over the Lions and the Chargers.
Broncos are 31st in
yards per pass with 5.5 average which makes it difficult to cover a spread with
such poor passing efficiency.
Vikings are first in yards per
rush at 4.8, and Broncos are last in yards per rush at 2.8. Showing a better
ability to control the game on the ground.
Broncos have counted on turnover
to win with 10 so far this year. The Vikings have only turned it over 3 times
showing a strong ability to protect the football
Broncos have a look
ahead spot with a key divisional matchup against the resurgent Raiders next
week. The Vikings will want to prove
they can play with a high rated NFL team and have the luxury of a bye week to
follow so they can give it their all in this one.
How are the Vikings going to cover a 7 point spread IN DENVER against that monstrous defense?
Analysis
Vikings +7
Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points
who have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and are winning between
60% to 75% of their games are 35-10 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when
playing another team with a winning record.
Broncos has not been dominating
anyone yet, and to lay 7 on team in the NFL means you believe they will
dominate. The Broncos could very easily be 0-3 if a few lucky plays had not
gone there way. The combined record of opponents
for the Broncos are 1-8.
Broncos gave up 144 yards on 29
carries to Jamaal Charles, and they face another premier back who has been
playing well in Adrian Peterson.
Vikings were dominant in their 2
wins over the Lions and the Chargers.
Broncos are 31st in
yards per pass with 5.5 average which makes it difficult to cover a spread with
such poor passing efficiency.
Vikings are first in yards per
rush at 4.8, and Broncos are last in yards per rush at 2.8. Showing a better
ability to control the game on the ground.
Broncos have counted on turnover
to win with 10 so far this year. The Vikings have only turned it over 3 times
showing a strong ability to protect the football
Broncos have a look
ahead spot with a key divisional matchup against the resurgent Raiders next
week. The Vikings will want to prove
they can play with a high rated NFL team and have the luxury of a bye week to
follow so they can give it their all in this one.
Why do so many think shady is a big loss? Not sure there is much of a drop off if any with Karlos Wiliams.
Watkins hurts more than Shady. It takes one more playmaker away from Taylor. The Giants are stout against the run anyway at 3.4 ypr allowed, and they have been protecting the football with only 1 giveaway on the season. It is really about whether Taylor can make enough plays to cover, I say no. Also, the Bills have been flat after playing Miami going 7-28 ATS after playing the Phins.
Why do so many think shady is a big loss? Not sure there is much of a drop off if any with Karlos Wiliams.
Watkins hurts more than Shady. It takes one more playmaker away from Taylor. The Giants are stout against the run anyway at 3.4 ypr allowed, and they have been protecting the football with only 1 giveaway on the season. It is really about whether Taylor can make enough plays to cover, I say no. Also, the Bills have been flat after playing Miami going 7-28 ATS after playing the Phins.
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