Regardless of whether you're right or not, just the entertainment value of this perspective makes it worth the price of admission. If you'd applied this theory three weeks or so ago in NCAAF, well, we'd be right where we are in the BCS title game. The value in this perspective is simply Maximum Fun, or life reflects art as run by Daytime TV. Love it... Keep havin' fun... BTW, the world isn't smart, organized, or insightful enough to manage a conspiracy...
Regardless of whether you're right or not, just the entertainment value of this perspective makes it worth the price of admission. If you'd applied this theory three weeks or so ago in NCAAF, well, we'd be right where we are in the BCS title game. The value in this perspective is simply Maximum Fun, or life reflects art as run by Daytime TV. Love it... Keep havin' fun... BTW, the world isn't smart, organized, or insightful enough to manage a conspiracy...
Before kickoff last night the Bears were +2.5. After that dominating performance the spread moved to Bears +1.5. For those of you who followed last weeks saga (link is in the OP) we watched a similar situation as the 49ers were 2.5 point favorites over the Seahawks before the Seahawks destroyed the Saints, but after that game the line did not budge one drop. This made me feel very confident in the 49ers and i stuck with them. Despite losing that bet I think I was on the right side (I only remember a team losing but covering 2.5 twice this season, both involved the Ravens- go figure).
Whenever a team wins that convincingly on national TV I am weary of the line the next week, and my pregame feeling was that this line spelled trouble for the Bears in Cleveland. Remember before this game people saw the browns almost beat NE, and the Bears had lost 2 straight including in OT at Minnesota. So the line adjustment post-game makes me wonder, and I'm not particularly confident in either side. I just don't think this storyline can afford to have the Bears lose this one, although if they do, we could really drive the masses into a frenzy by having the Giants win 2 Detroit in 2 weeks...going to watch this one neutrally most likely
Cowboys-
Still can't get a line which is interesting in itself. My gut regardless is that the Cowboys are 1 game back on the Eagles and need to stay one game back on the Eagles at a minimum going into week 17.
Eagles -4.5 @ Vikings-
This line tells me that the Eagles could lose this one. No real strong indications as far as our saga is concerned because even if the eagles lose and the cowboys win those 2 teams will be tied...HOWEVER, i think if the eagles have the freedom to lose the game to the Bears in week 16, it may become a perfect slot for maximum drama in the NFC Central. In other words I think the Eagles will win this week, but they may not cover the spread for dramatic affect. The Cowboys line will help me with this one, because if it suggest the Cowboys can lose too we will re-evaluate this situation.
Miami Dolphins +2 vs. Patriots-
This may appear to be irrelevant to this saga, but by next Monday we will surely see its relevance. Next MNF we will have a whole new storyline to follow and we will have a whole new set of factors to evaluate. For that reason I am not even going to think about that game just yet. HOWEVER, this game has the potential to set the stage for that game. Thinking about it, I can practically already hear Al Michaels voice telling us the story about the Miami Dolphins hitting rock bottom mid season and rallying into the playoffs at their first playoff pregame. What a saga, these guys haven't made the playoffs since 2008 and before that 2001! What better way to pump football back into the city of Miami with their young QB and blah blah blah...in a quiet room you can already hear the dramatic story being told over and over on all the media outlets. Then think about all we will have to consider with MNF with the Ravens in need of a win to stay even with the Dolphins for the wildcard and the Lions either in need of a win 2 stay even with Bears or with the opportunity to take a 1 game lead. Also important to note that the Dolphins lost head to head with the Ravens and would need to be 1 game ahead because of the tiebreaker. Nothing could make next Monday night better than putting both of these teams in this situation. For me the saga supports this game more than any other on Sunday. Throw in the fact that NE beat the Dolphins 27-17 at home in week 8 after the Dolphins were winning 17-3 at halftime, and things start to look really good. If this game does not pan out...It should at least offer us good incite into the MNF game.
Sunday:
Miami Dolphins +2
Miami Dolphins ML
I will only place small wager at the beginning of the week and increase, stay small, or in extreme circumstances buy out, based on the line and the minds of the humans.
Before kickoff last night the Bears were +2.5. After that dominating performance the spread moved to Bears +1.5. For those of you who followed last weeks saga (link is in the OP) we watched a similar situation as the 49ers were 2.5 point favorites over the Seahawks before the Seahawks destroyed the Saints, but after that game the line did not budge one drop. This made me feel very confident in the 49ers and i stuck with them. Despite losing that bet I think I was on the right side (I only remember a team losing but covering 2.5 twice this season, both involved the Ravens- go figure).
Whenever a team wins that convincingly on national TV I am weary of the line the next week, and my pregame feeling was that this line spelled trouble for the Bears in Cleveland. Remember before this game people saw the browns almost beat NE, and the Bears had lost 2 straight including in OT at Minnesota. So the line adjustment post-game makes me wonder, and I'm not particularly confident in either side. I just don't think this storyline can afford to have the Bears lose this one, although if they do, we could really drive the masses into a frenzy by having the Giants win 2 Detroit in 2 weeks...going to watch this one neutrally most likely
Cowboys-
Still can't get a line which is interesting in itself. My gut regardless is that the Cowboys are 1 game back on the Eagles and need to stay one game back on the Eagles at a minimum going into week 17.
Eagles -4.5 @ Vikings-
This line tells me that the Eagles could lose this one. No real strong indications as far as our saga is concerned because even if the eagles lose and the cowboys win those 2 teams will be tied...HOWEVER, i think if the eagles have the freedom to lose the game to the Bears in week 16, it may become a perfect slot for maximum drama in the NFC Central. In other words I think the Eagles will win this week, but they may not cover the spread for dramatic affect. The Cowboys line will help me with this one, because if it suggest the Cowboys can lose too we will re-evaluate this situation.
Miami Dolphins +2 vs. Patriots-
This may appear to be irrelevant to this saga, but by next Monday we will surely see its relevance. Next MNF we will have a whole new storyline to follow and we will have a whole new set of factors to evaluate. For that reason I am not even going to think about that game just yet. HOWEVER, this game has the potential to set the stage for that game. Thinking about it, I can practically already hear Al Michaels voice telling us the story about the Miami Dolphins hitting rock bottom mid season and rallying into the playoffs at their first playoff pregame. What a saga, these guys haven't made the playoffs since 2008 and before that 2001! What better way to pump football back into the city of Miami with their young QB and blah blah blah...in a quiet room you can already hear the dramatic story being told over and over on all the media outlets. Then think about all we will have to consider with MNF with the Ravens in need of a win to stay even with the Dolphins for the wildcard and the Lions either in need of a win 2 stay even with Bears or with the opportunity to take a 1 game lead. Also important to note that the Dolphins lost head to head with the Ravens and would need to be 1 game ahead because of the tiebreaker. Nothing could make next Monday night better than putting both of these teams in this situation. For me the saga supports this game more than any other on Sunday. Throw in the fact that NE beat the Dolphins 27-17 at home in week 8 after the Dolphins were winning 17-3 at halftime, and things start to look really good. If this game does not pan out...It should at least offer us good incite into the MNF game.
Sunday:
Miami Dolphins +2
Miami Dolphins ML
I will only place small wager at the beginning of the week and increase, stay small, or in extreme circumstances buy out, based on the line and the minds of the humans.
This is one of my favorite threads I've read in a long time. I been trying to tell people that the nfl is an entertainment business not a sport. Its all about where the profit is. Money runs this world. Its really just that simple. Of course not every game can be influenced but majority of the time when the nfl wants a game to go a certain way.... They will do their best to make it happen. Good garbage. Looking forward to reading ur posts
This is one of my favorite threads I've read in a long time. I been trying to tell people that the nfl is an entertainment business not a sport. Its all about where the profit is. Money runs this world. Its really just that simple. Of course not every game can be influenced but majority of the time when the nfl wants a game to go a certain way.... They will do their best to make it happen. Good garbage. Looking forward to reading ur posts
This is one of my favorite threads I've read in a long time. I been trying to tell people that the nfl is an entertainment business not a sport. Its all about where the profit is. Money runs this world. Its really just that simple. Of course not every game can be influenced but majority of the time when the nfl wants a game to go a certain way.... They will do their best to make it happen. Good garbage. Looking forward to reading ur posts
This is one of my favorite threads I've read in a long time. I been trying to tell people that the nfl is an entertainment business not a sport. Its all about where the profit is. Money runs this world. Its really just that simple. Of course not every game can be influenced but majority of the time when the nfl wants a game to go a certain way.... They will do their best to make it happen. Good garbage. Looking forward to reading ur posts
Like the working the path to the playoffs backwards angle. I bet teams looks at the schedule and think that way too. Which wins they need, divisional records, etc.
Like the working the path to the playoffs backwards angle. I bet teams looks at the schedule and think that way too. Which wins they need, divisional records, etc.
other angles worth watching, these are just leans:
Looking at the Cardinals schedule, I just do not see them winning 2 out of 3 of the remaining games, and frankly even going 2 for 3 probably won't put them in the wildcard...that being said the best bang for our buck entertainment value lies in the Titans beating them this week and stretching the excitement around the AFC wildcard...they are in a position to potentially win out with their schedule if they can win this one and I think that will just make things all the more entertaining...
Titans +3
Titans ML
We already discussed the Panthers and Saints game next week...what would make it even better? If the Panthers only squeak this game out or fall behind and have to come back and don't cover the spread, people will really lose faith in them. This will be in our favor next week when they host the Saints. On top of all of this we have a Jets team that still thinks they have a shot at the playoffs (although I doubt it) and they have a coach that is fighting to keep his character alive in the series next season. Since last years super bowl we love the whole coaching brother saga too and you can bet rex will rob ryan will chat about carolina this week, and you can rest assured the announcers will chat about it all game long. The point is, I think the Jet's keeping this one close is just better TV. To be honest they might even be permitted to win to keep the New Yorkers emotionally invested, without really destroying the Cam Newton story, because one more win should put them in the playoffs anyway (and if we have things our way that win will be the next week vs. the Saints).
other angles worth watching, these are just leans:
Looking at the Cardinals schedule, I just do not see them winning 2 out of 3 of the remaining games, and frankly even going 2 for 3 probably won't put them in the wildcard...that being said the best bang for our buck entertainment value lies in the Titans beating them this week and stretching the excitement around the AFC wildcard...they are in a position to potentially win out with their schedule if they can win this one and I think that will just make things all the more entertaining...
Titans +3
Titans ML
We already discussed the Panthers and Saints game next week...what would make it even better? If the Panthers only squeak this game out or fall behind and have to come back and don't cover the spread, people will really lose faith in them. This will be in our favor next week when they host the Saints. On top of all of this we have a Jets team that still thinks they have a shot at the playoffs (although I doubt it) and they have a coach that is fighting to keep his character alive in the series next season. Since last years super bowl we love the whole coaching brother saga too and you can bet rex will rob ryan will chat about carolina this week, and you can rest assured the announcers will chat about it all game long. The point is, I think the Jet's keeping this one close is just better TV. To be honest they might even be permitted to win to keep the New Yorkers emotionally invested, without really destroying the Cam Newton story, because one more win should put them in the playoffs anyway (and if we have things our way that win will be the next week vs. the Saints).
Like to hear your thoughts on tomorrows game Broncs/chargers
I'll preface my opinion by saying I don't have any strong opinions on the game as of now, that being said I can still tell you how I see it.
Start by thinking of the playoff picture on a map of the US. As of now we are guaranteed 3 west coast playoff teams with Denver, San Fran, and Seattle. I guess we aren't guaranteed that but I like the odds. Given the popularity of these 3 teams right now I feel like the Chargers just don't offer quite the same entertainment value. The Philip Rivers story is a good one when its convenient but for me is it really heart-wrenching? When I look at the Dolphins for example, it seems there is a much better storyline to be had. Even the Ravens ex-super bowl champs who started 3 and 5 or the Jets of NY who were predicted the worst team in the NFL preseason make a better story. So for me the outlook is not so bright for the Chargers, from the TV series perspective it just doesn't offer much. Of course twists are always possible but from my current point of view I just can't see the upside.
On the other side, we have the Broncos, Peyton Manning, blah blah blah a big time story and tons of entertainment value. These guys are going to the playoffs either way, but lets look at the pros and cons of giving these guys homefield. Number 1, if they win this game they will likely win out playing houston and oakland last 2 games...this would give them a bye, home field advantage, and 8-1 in their last 9 with the one loss @ NE...who knows if they want to run the peyton manning to the super bowl saga this year but either way, the Broncos getting upset at home in the playoffs, or being on fire going to the superbowl, or getting revenge against the Patriots, it seems like their is value you in having these guys get homefield advantage, and to have them look on fire going into the playoffs. I suppose they could still get home field advantage in the playoffs, but if we get to watch them lose at home as 10 point dogs on national tv a few weeks before playoffs, it will take away some of the shock factor.
But 10+ points...hmm...quite hard to say...there is always entertainment value in a close game, or a comeback, but blowouts always set us up for a future thriller. It does often seem like when a team is about to be eliminated from playoff hopes, or killed off the show, we like to see them go down swinging and put up a fight and maybe that's what we will see. I will need to wait until tomorrow before making a small wager myself, but as of now I don't see too strong of an angle.
I will say this though...if they do lose this game, they will likely be in the Super Bowl this season
Like to hear your thoughts on tomorrows game Broncs/chargers
I'll preface my opinion by saying I don't have any strong opinions on the game as of now, that being said I can still tell you how I see it.
Start by thinking of the playoff picture on a map of the US. As of now we are guaranteed 3 west coast playoff teams with Denver, San Fran, and Seattle. I guess we aren't guaranteed that but I like the odds. Given the popularity of these 3 teams right now I feel like the Chargers just don't offer quite the same entertainment value. The Philip Rivers story is a good one when its convenient but for me is it really heart-wrenching? When I look at the Dolphins for example, it seems there is a much better storyline to be had. Even the Ravens ex-super bowl champs who started 3 and 5 or the Jets of NY who were predicted the worst team in the NFL preseason make a better story. So for me the outlook is not so bright for the Chargers, from the TV series perspective it just doesn't offer much. Of course twists are always possible but from my current point of view I just can't see the upside.
On the other side, we have the Broncos, Peyton Manning, blah blah blah a big time story and tons of entertainment value. These guys are going to the playoffs either way, but lets look at the pros and cons of giving these guys homefield. Number 1, if they win this game they will likely win out playing houston and oakland last 2 games...this would give them a bye, home field advantage, and 8-1 in their last 9 with the one loss @ NE...who knows if they want to run the peyton manning to the super bowl saga this year but either way, the Broncos getting upset at home in the playoffs, or being on fire going to the superbowl, or getting revenge against the Patriots, it seems like their is value you in having these guys get homefield advantage, and to have them look on fire going into the playoffs. I suppose they could still get home field advantage in the playoffs, but if we get to watch them lose at home as 10 point dogs on national tv a few weeks before playoffs, it will take away some of the shock factor.
But 10+ points...hmm...quite hard to say...there is always entertainment value in a close game, or a comeback, but blowouts always set us up for a future thriller. It does often seem like when a team is about to be eliminated from playoff hopes, or killed off the show, we like to see them go down swinging and put up a fight and maybe that's what we will see. I will need to wait until tomorrow before making a small wager myself, but as of now I don't see too strong of an angle.
I will say this though...if they do lose this game, they will likely be in the Super Bowl this season
Less interested in Dolphins after the Broncos loss...seems another storyline could be in the works with the Patriots...maybe even Broncos heading back to foxborough in the afc championship game for revenge after their second half breakdown...who knows...even if the dolphins lose its likely that the ravens will lose 2 of their next 3 with @ Detroit home vs. Pats @ Bengals...in other words a loss here won’t ruin that story and could create one with the Patriots...i’m already small on the dolphins but not liking it, but i’ll probably let it ride at +2
Jets and Titans both with reverse line movement...the Jets game at 10 sure seems to be begging for Carolina money and nothing has changed in the way I am seeing that game...like it at 10.5 I just don’t see the benefit of a blowout here. going to be small as well though...i think this is a difficult card and think the prime time games are the best opportunities to make $$ because we already know how the rest of the games went and have better ability to analyze the situation. Love carolina next week at home vs. saints
Titans are tough because I just don’t think they are going to the playoffs, and not that i think arizona is, i can see some drama in having them win this one...the 49ers have a tough spot in Tampa and a loss would make these teams even...then when the cardinals and 49ers play in week 17 the game will have playoff implications, which is always ideal...skipping this one...maybe the Bucs is a better play
It does not look good for the Bears from my perspective...they are getting bet heavily after their monday night performance and just not getting a good feeling about them even though it seems like a must win it might not be...if the eagles win and the cowboys win they will need to beat the cowboys in week 17 most likely anyway so dropping that game to the bears after everyone is counting them out might make for a great saga...don’t like the bears, but if they lose and the eagles and cowboys win...i love them @ the eagles
The night game is maybe my favorite for tomorrow because i can see a potential story unfolding...I don’t think the steelers are going to the playoffs. Looking at the Bengals schedule they could potentially win out which could give them a shot at home field. The Bengals haven’t been to a conference championship game since 1988 or won a superbowl since 1982...with home field advantage these guys are good and have the potential to make a great story...likeable squad that the country could get behind i’d imagine...the good news about this one is that we get to see what happens with all the other games first, take another look at the playoff picture and then decide. My gut also says after a big day for underdogs people will be less hesitant to bet the home dog...i expect to see the percentage sites claim that the people are betting cinci but going through the boards you’ll see a lot of Pitt...we shall see
Less interested in Dolphins after the Broncos loss...seems another storyline could be in the works with the Patriots...maybe even Broncos heading back to foxborough in the afc championship game for revenge after their second half breakdown...who knows...even if the dolphins lose its likely that the ravens will lose 2 of their next 3 with @ Detroit home vs. Pats @ Bengals...in other words a loss here won’t ruin that story and could create one with the Patriots...i’m already small on the dolphins but not liking it, but i’ll probably let it ride at +2
Jets and Titans both with reverse line movement...the Jets game at 10 sure seems to be begging for Carolina money and nothing has changed in the way I am seeing that game...like it at 10.5 I just don’t see the benefit of a blowout here. going to be small as well though...i think this is a difficult card and think the prime time games are the best opportunities to make $$ because we already know how the rest of the games went and have better ability to analyze the situation. Love carolina next week at home vs. saints
Titans are tough because I just don’t think they are going to the playoffs, and not that i think arizona is, i can see some drama in having them win this one...the 49ers have a tough spot in Tampa and a loss would make these teams even...then when the cardinals and 49ers play in week 17 the game will have playoff implications, which is always ideal...skipping this one...maybe the Bucs is a better play
It does not look good for the Bears from my perspective...they are getting bet heavily after their monday night performance and just not getting a good feeling about them even though it seems like a must win it might not be...if the eagles win and the cowboys win they will need to beat the cowboys in week 17 most likely anyway so dropping that game to the bears after everyone is counting them out might make for a great saga...don’t like the bears, but if they lose and the eagles and cowboys win...i love them @ the eagles
The night game is maybe my favorite for tomorrow because i can see a potential story unfolding...I don’t think the steelers are going to the playoffs. Looking at the Bengals schedule they could potentially win out which could give them a shot at home field. The Bengals haven’t been to a conference championship game since 1988 or won a superbowl since 1982...with home field advantage these guys are good and have the potential to make a great story...likeable squad that the country could get behind i’d imagine...the good news about this one is that we get to see what happens with all the other games first, take another look at the playoff picture and then decide. My gut also says after a big day for underdogs people will be less hesitant to bet the home dog...i expect to see the percentage sites claim that the people are betting cinci but going through the boards you’ll see a lot of Pitt...we shall see
aside from the playoff saga...just eyeing the way things happen out there in the universe...
The Bills have lost 5 of their last 6 and they are going on the road to play a Jacksonville team that won 4 of their last 5 including an upset last Thursday night on national tv...and they are favored!? Jacksonville is getting bet heavily as a home dog, obviously. This one has Bills written all over it. Bills -2.5
aside from the playoff saga...just eyeing the way things happen out there in the universe...
The Bills have lost 5 of their last 6 and they are going on the road to play a Jacksonville team that won 4 of their last 5 including an upset last Thursday night on national tv...and they are favored!? Jacksonville is getting bet heavily as a home dog, obviously. This one has Bills written all over it. Bills -2.5
It does not look good for the Bears from my perspective...they are getting bet heavily after their monday night performance and just not getting a good feeling about them even though it seems like a must win it might not be.
Browns nearly upsetting the pats last weekend didn't help us get a good # on them this weekend...would of loved browns at +3 will still likely make a play as a pk or small dog BOL
It does not look good for the Bears from my perspective...they are getting bet heavily after their monday night performance and just not getting a good feeling about them even though it seems like a must win it might not be.
Browns nearly upsetting the pats last weekend didn't help us get a good # on them this weekend...would of loved browns at +3 will still likely make a play as a pk or small dog BOL
Nice call on Buffalo. After seeing what has transpired so far today what are you leaning towards for SNF? I think Cincy wins easily. Home dogs have been $$$ all day - think that ends tonight...
Nice call on Buffalo. After seeing what has transpired so far today what are you leaning towards for SNF? I think Cincy wins easily. Home dogs have been $$$ all day - think that ends tonight...
I don’t think the steelers are going to the playoffs especially after Dolphins win...Looking at the Bengals schedule they could potentially win out which could give them a shot at home field, and now that the Patriots lost they are licking their lips...one side deflated today one side I inflated by those results. The Bengals haven’t been to a conference championship game since 1988 or won a superbowl since 1982...with home field advantage these guys are good and have the potential to make a great story...likeable squad that the country could get behind i’d imagine...today was a huge day for underdogs people will be less hesitant to bet the home dog...i expect to see the percentage sites claim that the people are betting cinci but going through the boards you’ll see a lot of Pitt
These are changes to last nights post...things unfolding in a way that supports this play for me....as always anything is possible in this TV series...GL either way
I don’t think the steelers are going to the playoffs especially after Dolphins win...Looking at the Bengals schedule they could potentially win out which could give them a shot at home field, and now that the Patriots lost they are licking their lips...one side deflated today one side I inflated by those results. The Bengals haven’t been to a conference championship game since 1988 or won a superbowl since 1982...with home field advantage these guys are good and have the potential to make a great story...likeable squad that the country could get behind i’d imagine...today was a huge day for underdogs people will be less hesitant to bet the home dog...i expect to see the percentage sites claim that the people are betting cinci but going through the boards you’ll see a lot of Pitt
These are changes to last nights post...things unfolding in a way that supports this play for me....as always anything is possible in this TV series...GL either way
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.