It's spoiler time for the Broncos, and you can be sure that the team and Mike Shanahan remember the 41-3 loss at home to San Diego earlier this year. It was only the WORST Bronco loss in 31 years.
On the other hand, it's letdown time for the Chargers. They clinched their division last week and have already secured an NFL Playoff home game in the Wild Card weekend. Exactly how long their starters go on Monday is anyone's guess. But if they get out to decent lead, a likely scenario will be massive substitutions... and the Broncos have an explosive enough offense to 'come in the back door' if need be.
The most profitable System so far this year is Conference underdogs who got beat up really bad in their previous game. And that's definitely the case for the Broncos, who lost 31-13 to the Houston Texans last week as road favorites. In the 2007 season, NFL Underdogs off a Double-Digit ATS loss in which they allowed 30 or more points (BRONCOS) are 14-3 ATS. These doggies are 10-2 ATS on the ROAD.... 7-1 ATS vs an opponent off a SU win.... and a PERFECT 4-0 ATS vs an opponent off BB SU wins (like the Chargers).
The Chargers come into this game on a big-time roll as they've won 4 in a row SU and ATS. That's fine with me. In fact, it's a great 'Play AGAINST' situation depending on the parameters. In the last 5 years, NFL division home FAVORITES off 4+ SU and ATS wins in a row (CHARGERS) are a PERFECT 0-7 ATS vs an opponent playing with Revenge (BRONCOS).
Don't forget what happened last season at this time. Game 15-16 division home favorites went a PERFECT 0-8 ATS. If you want to go back a little further than last season, then the last 10 years, Game 15 division home favs of =4 to -11 points (CHARGERS) are 4-20 ATS..... 2-16 ATS if the game line is -7 to -11.... and a PERFECT 0-5 ATS if playing off BB SU wins.
I also looked up info based on the Chargers 'gaudy' point total last week (They beat Detroit by a whopping 51-14). The results also back this up nicely. In the last 4 years, NFL teams are 1-6 ATS after scoring 50 or more points (CHARGERS). And in a longer-term System, over the last 22 years, home FAVORITES are 1-6 ATS after scoring 50 > points. Finally, in a variation of this System, NFL teams who are off a game that they won by 5 TDS or more (35 > points) are 1-9 ATS in the last 2 years.
An outright win by Denver would not surprise me, but the points look soid. Monday night division home favs off a DD ATS win are 1-12 ATS since 1980 playing 'INTO' Revenge.
Let's celebrate a great Christmas with a little early gift from the NFL on MNF.
Merry Christmas everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good Luck.......................................................