Alright, this total is not going to move any higher so might as well play it. Once it moved past 47 I knew this was a potential play. Once I finished capping this one, I realized this one WILL BE my first NFL play to start this 2011 season.
First of all, the public is in love with the OVER here. And why not? You have Brees, Rodgers, Finely, Jennings, Grant, Sproles, Colston, etc. Everyone loves offense and seeing points go up on the board. Well, what people are forgetting is that these are some of the best defenses from 2010:
Packers were #2 in points allowed at 15 per game Saints were 7th at 19.2 per. Packers were #5 in yards allowed per game with 309 Saints were 4th with 306 per game.
Hmmm... We have two top defenses in this one going against one another.
Offensively both squads are awesome as well, but there are some factors here to consider. New Orleans will be playing without Lance Moore. You might not think he's important, but he was a critical component in their offense when Reggie Bush would miss games in the past. His production in those games was off-the-charts. Well, Bush is no longer there, and Moore is out with an injury. This will have an effect on Saints' offense in the first game of the season. In addition, Colston is coming off a knee surgery, Saints have a new rookie RB starting his first game, and there are some changes to the O-line. Without proper time for camp/training I see this offense not being at it's 'optimal' level in this one.
On the other side, Packers have some changes as well. Ryan Grant is back and I expect Green Bay to feed him the ball more. At the same time they also have some changes to their O-line. It'll take a bit of time to 'gel'. Finley is back and he's actually my biggest concern here. Saints are not very good at defending TE's and if this wasn't the first game of the season I'd be more concerned.
My point here is that both offenses have some changes and typically it takes O's longer to 'shake off the rust' than D's. Finally, I want to point out the 'emotions' surrounding this game. These are 2 of the most recent SuperBowl winners. This is opening night of the NFL season, a season that many thought might not start on time. This is a big game for everyone, not just Packers' and Saints' fans. With emotions so 'high' I expect both teams to focus on establishing the run early and often. And why not? Both of these secondaries are excellent!
Last year I played the UNDER in the Saints/Vikings opening game of the season. The O/U was as high as 50 in that one and I believe majority of the public were on the OVER. The final score in that one: 14-9. I see the UNDER hitting again tonight as this total is a bit OVER-inflated.
Good luck and have a profitable NFL season everyone!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Alright, this total is not going to move any higher so might as well play it. Once it moved past 47 I knew this was a potential play. Once I finished capping this one, I realized this one WILL BE my first NFL play to start this 2011 season.
First of all, the public is in love with the OVER here. And why not? You have Brees, Rodgers, Finely, Jennings, Grant, Sproles, Colston, etc. Everyone loves offense and seeing points go up on the board. Well, what people are forgetting is that these are some of the best defenses from 2010:
Packers were #2 in points allowed at 15 per game Saints were 7th at 19.2 per. Packers were #5 in yards allowed per game with 309 Saints were 4th with 306 per game.
Hmmm... We have two top defenses in this one going against one another.
Offensively both squads are awesome as well, but there are some factors here to consider. New Orleans will be playing without Lance Moore. You might not think he's important, but he was a critical component in their offense when Reggie Bush would miss games in the past. His production in those games was off-the-charts. Well, Bush is no longer there, and Moore is out with an injury. This will have an effect on Saints' offense in the first game of the season. In addition, Colston is coming off a knee surgery, Saints have a new rookie RB starting his first game, and there are some changes to the O-line. Without proper time for camp/training I see this offense not being at it's 'optimal' level in this one.
On the other side, Packers have some changes as well. Ryan Grant is back and I expect Green Bay to feed him the ball more. At the same time they also have some changes to their O-line. It'll take a bit of time to 'gel'. Finley is back and he's actually my biggest concern here. Saints are not very good at defending TE's and if this wasn't the first game of the season I'd be more concerned.
My point here is that both offenses have some changes and typically it takes O's longer to 'shake off the rust' than D's. Finally, I want to point out the 'emotions' surrounding this game. These are 2 of the most recent SuperBowl winners. This is opening night of the NFL season, a season that many thought might not start on time. This is a big game for everyone, not just Packers' and Saints' fans. With emotions so 'high' I expect both teams to focus on establishing the run early and often. And why not? Both of these secondaries are excellent!
Last year I played the UNDER in the Saints/Vikings opening game of the season. The O/U was as high as 50 in that one and I believe majority of the public were on the OVER. The final score in that one: 14-9. I see the UNDER hitting again tonight as this total is a bit OVER-inflated.
Good luck and have a profitable NFL season everyone!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
100% agree with this play Bodio...last 4 opening day third night games have gone under...both offenses will have to get adjusted....and as u mentioned both play D....I'm on this tonight. Also took saints +4.5 A's an action play....GL tonight!
100% agree with this play Bodio...last 4 opening day third night games have gone under...both offenses will have to get adjusted....and as u mentioned both play D....I'm on this tonight. Also took saints +4.5 A's an action play....GL tonight!
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