Record 14-18
You don't really think I'm taking the Lakers here do you? Come to your senses!
This is what it took to lose the Lakers vs. Kings +3 game:
1) A terrible inbounds pass
2) a foul with .2 seconds left
3) 6 FT's in 5 seconds
I took every point on the spread for a reason folks.
Is that is complaint? No.
Was it a loss? Yes. Did I lose money on it? Yes. Does it mean the cap was wrong? No. It means you got moosed. And mooses will happen. And over the long-term, you will profit with mooses mixed in if you are a solid capper. End of story.
We've covered all the tanking talk. Ron Artest is playing virtually the entire 4th quarter of games Walton is allegedly telling the media he is trying 'not to lose.' Come on. Same with Brewer being in those games. And know Ron is a 'company man' only playing because he sits pretty with management. He wouldn't have a job otherwise. That means something in games like this folks. He'll play but he won't play.
Walton can't play the games for the Lakers folks. Walton can only mix and match and it was clear the Kings didn't want any part of winning that game either when Cauley-Stein his the bench. And that's fine. That's why I took the +3.
Yes I got burned but it doesn't mean we change our philosophy.
So the two things going for fading the Lakers are this:
1) The Suns play the Mavericks at 6:00, three hours before the Lakers game.
Who will win this game? Who knows? It looks like a Kings vs. Lakers 2.0 (i.e., two teams not giving much of a shi*) and the Suns are favored by 2.
The Mavs have openly stated they will pull all their starters for the game before the end of the first quarter and give them max 15/18 minutes. That's less than 2 quarters of play.
That's problematic and I can't cap this game.
It doesn't mean the Suns can't lose it having lost 13 of 14 themselves.
But the line doesn't lie, the Suns certainly can win against an awful Mavs bench.
If they win, the Lakers can comply by tying them in the standings and getting a virtual equal percentage in the lottery after a coin-flip for 1 ball.
Advantage: Suns may lose early allowing an open door for some more Walton finagling.
2) T-Wolves, as a young team have some pride left.
Losers of 7 of 10.
Losers of their last 3.
Yes a win hurts them and moves them out of a tie in the standings with the Kings.
But at least we have a competent core playing full minutes and one that can light up a scoreboard. Towns/Wiggins/Rubio. Scoring matters. Scoring gets you over spreads. T-Wolves have the scoring in these three players.
Don't think these Wolves players don't know what is going on at the bottom of these standings. The Lakers and Suns are the bottom of the barrel. The Nets are clearly better than both teams after Lin has come back and they've gotten healthy.
Lose this game and you lose to the worst of the worst.
And contrary to BegginerBoy's theory that the Kings don't want to help the Lakers (a legitimate theory but one that didn't dissuade me from taking +3), the Wolves do not have that.
So I don't believe a 'loss' will be 'helping' the Lakers.
Just win the game and don't end the season on the ultimate sour note against a team where coaches and management want them to tank.
The price for that is 5 points. Seems low to me. Where the books got this number? I have no idea. But the feeling is that it is low. And with so much uncertainty as the wild and wacky NBA season comes to a close, sometimes all we have is our gut to guide us. Because I have no metric on why 5 is a good or bad line. I just know I'll lay it here.
And we get a bonus to play it early. The line won't fall if the Suns lose as a Suns loss keeps everything status quo.
But if the Suns win, I think the LA locals and Vegas regulars and square bettors in online books alike see that as more impetus for the Lakers to lose (obvious but true), so the line COULD rise later.
The pick:
WOLVES -5 over LAKERS