When the price of a line increases from -110 to -115 or -120, does it mean that the public is pounding the other side or the book thinks the spread with the higher price is going to win, thus make the price for the other spread better?
When the price of a line increases from -110 to -115 or -120, does it mean that the public is pounding the other side or the book thinks the spread with the higher price is going to win, thus make the price for the other spread better?
I think I may be on to something.. three games I bet at today had lines that look like this, e.g. -115, -120, -120, and all of them won. I don't know if it's just a coincidence ( I didn't track every game across the board, just these three), or if the books are setting the prices higher for games that they feel are going to win.
I think I may be on to something.. three games I bet at today had lines that look like this, e.g. -115, -120, -120, and all of them won. I don't know if it's just a coincidence ( I didn't track every game across the board, just these three), or if the books are setting the prices higher for games that they feel are going to win.
esplanade - i see. so the prices being high only means that many people are betting the other side huh.. yeah, u have a point about being middled. thanks for your response.
i'm going to watch this thing closer. maybe it's a good thing to bet against lines with very high prices if you want to bet against the public...
esplanade - i see. so the prices being high only means that many people are betting the other side huh.. yeah, u have a point about being middled. thanks for your response.
i'm going to watch this thing closer. maybe it's a good thing to bet against lines with very high prices if you want to bet against the public...
staccinchips - if the price of a line is high, that means that the public is pounding that line right? so if you want to bet against the public, you have to bet on the line with the low price, e.g. -105 or +100..
staccinchips - if the price of a line is high, that means that the public is pounding that line right? so if you want to bet against the public, you have to bet on the line with the low price, e.g. -105 or +100..
day-trader1 : what you're saying definitely makes sense.. however, I'm wondering if there's any chance that the books know beforehand which team is going to cover a particular line and therefore set the price higher (winning team) and lower (losing team) in order to entice the public to bet on the losing team because of what seems to be "value" in a line..
day-trader1 : what you're saying definitely makes sense.. however, I'm wondering if there's any chance that the books know beforehand which team is going to cover a particular line and therefore set the price higher (winning team) and lower (losing team) in order to entice the public to bet on the losing team because of what seems to be "value" in a line..
Scenario 1: Games are fixed and books know which team is going to cover the spread, and therefore, will set the price higher , e.g. -120, for the winning team and lower, e.g. +105, for the losing team in order to make the public bet for the losing team because of "value" in a certain line.
OR
Scenario 2: The price of the line is higher, e.g. -120, for a certain team because the public pounded this line and instead of increasing the spread, the books increase the price.
Which is the more likely scenario? Thoughts/Inputs are greatly appreciated.
Scenario 1: Games are fixed and books know which team is going to cover the spread, and therefore, will set the price higher , e.g. -120, for the winning team and lower, e.g. +105, for the losing team in order to make the public bet for the losing team because of "value" in a certain line.
OR
Scenario 2: The price of the line is higher, e.g. -120, for a certain team because the public pounded this line and instead of increasing the spread, the books increase the price.
Which is the more likely scenario? Thoughts/Inputs are greatly appreciated.
Scenario 2: The price of the line is higher, e.g. -120, for a certain team because the public pounded this line, and instead of increasing the spread of the favorite team, the books increase the price. BASICALLY, GAMES ARE NOT FIXED
Scenario 2: The price of the line is higher, e.g. -120, for a certain team because the public pounded this line, and instead of increasing the spread of the favorite team, the books increase the price. BASICALLY, GAMES ARE NOT FIXED
any thoughts on the two scenarios?? the reason i want to know badly is because I use a sportsbook that set ridiculous line prices instead of moving the spread
any thoughts on the two scenarios?? the reason i want to know badly is because I use a sportsbook that set ridiculous line prices instead of moving the spread
The books have a good idea of where the money will be bet ok just on trends look here.........https://www.wagerline.com/handicapping/public-money.aspx?page=/pick-data/PublicMoney/NBA-publicmoney.html
The books have a good idea of where the money will be bet ok just on trends look here.........https://www.wagerline.com/handicapping/public-money.aspx?page=/pick-data/PublicMoney/NBA-publicmoney.html
staccinchips - if the price of a line is high, that means that the public is pounding that line right? so if you want to bet against the public, you have to bet on the line with the low price, e.g. -105 or +100..
staccinchips - if the price of a line is high, that means that the public is pounding that line right? so if you want to bet against the public, you have to bet on the line with the low price, e.g. -105 or +100..
Bookmakers move the line in response to the amount of MONEY on a game; not the number of bettors. That's why you can see the public pile on a favorite and the line move THE OTHER WAY. It means the bettors with large bankrolls are fading the public's choice.
Bookmakers do take lopsided action, however. They employ very smart people with lots of resources and computers to handicap games and help them set the line. When the public takes a suspicious line and runs with it, sometimes the books will just leave the line alone and take the lopsided action.
Bookmakers move the line in response to the amount of MONEY on a game; not the number of bettors. That's why you can see the public pile on a favorite and the line move THE OTHER WAY. It means the bettors with large bankrolls are fading the public's choice.
Bookmakers do take lopsided action, however. They employ very smart people with lots of resources and computers to handicap games and help them set the line. When the public takes a suspicious line and runs with it, sometimes the books will just leave the line alone and take the lopsided action.
McAlpine - thank you sir for your comment. it was very insightful. question though, when you say that books sometimes take lopsided action and leave the line as is, do they leave both the line/spread and the price of the line/spread as is, or do they change the the price but leave the line/spread as is?
McAlpine - thank you sir for your comment. it was very insightful. question though, when you say that books sometimes take lopsided action and leave the line as is, do they leave both the line/spread and the price of the line/spread as is, or do they change the the price but leave the line/spread as is?
blackshirt - i looked at the link you posted, and no offense, but it doesn't have anything to do with what I'm asking. the site you provided gives a list of the YTD $ placed on each team, whereas I am asking whether there is a chance that books know/can control which team covers for a particular game and thus move the line/spread or price of the line, e.g. higher line price for the team that will cover so as to deter people from betting it, accordingly
blackshirt - i looked at the link you posted, and no offense, but it doesn't have anything to do with what I'm asking. the site you provided gives a list of the YTD $ placed on each team, whereas I am asking whether there is a chance that books know/can control which team covers for a particular game and thus move the line/spread or price of the line, e.g. higher line price for the team that will cover so as to deter people from betting it, accordingly
1. if books know/controls which team covers the spread, then we should bet on the more expensive lines, e.g. -115 or higher.
2. if books don't know/ can't control which team will win and the increase in the price of the line is solely due to public play, then it would be better to bet on cheaper lines, e.g. -105 or lower, because you get much better "value" and eventually wins and losses will average out.
1. if books know/controls which team covers the spread, then we should bet on the more expensive lines, e.g. -115 or higher.
2. if books don't know/ can't control which team will win and the increase in the price of the line is solely due to public play, then it would be better to bet on cheaper lines, e.g. -105 or lower, because you get much better "value" and eventually wins and losses will average out.
When the books set the line, they are not concerned with who wins or covers. They set that line solely based on what they feel will attract bettors to bet both sides.
With regard to pricing on lines, well the more money that comes in on a line, the more expensive that line will get eg moving from -105 to -110 and so on.
Now what affects a line? 1) Money coming in on one side (public or sharps) 2) Injuries 3) Other circumstances
Generally if there aren't any injuries and close to game time you see a line is moving in a certain direction, usually it is sharp money, and more often than not, it ends up winning. You will find the same for half time lines too.
On Pinnacle for example, if you bet one side for a substantial amount, the price on a line will change. I like the fact that they have dynamic lines, because you can constantly monitor how much money is coming in on one side. To move an overnight line on Pinnacle generally, you need to bet $20Gs to move it about 5 cents. Closer to game time, that amount increases to $40Gs, and a lot of sharp bettors use Pinnacle. So monitoring lines there helps.
Now sometimes it can be hard to differentiate between public and sharp money, but that comes with time and experience of watching lines move over the years.
It helps to look at the lines move, but it shouldn't be the end all reason of betting a side. I use it more as a reason not to bet a side I'm on.
When the books set the line, they are not concerned with who wins or covers. They set that line solely based on what they feel will attract bettors to bet both sides.
With regard to pricing on lines, well the more money that comes in on a line, the more expensive that line will get eg moving from -105 to -110 and so on.
Now what affects a line? 1) Money coming in on one side (public or sharps) 2) Injuries 3) Other circumstances
Generally if there aren't any injuries and close to game time you see a line is moving in a certain direction, usually it is sharp money, and more often than not, it ends up winning. You will find the same for half time lines too.
On Pinnacle for example, if you bet one side for a substantial amount, the price on a line will change. I like the fact that they have dynamic lines, because you can constantly monitor how much money is coming in on one side. To move an overnight line on Pinnacle generally, you need to bet $20Gs to move it about 5 cents. Closer to game time, that amount increases to $40Gs, and a lot of sharp bettors use Pinnacle. So monitoring lines there helps.
Now sometimes it can be hard to differentiate between public and sharp money, but that comes with time and experience of watching lines move over the years.
It helps to look at the lines move, but it shouldn't be the end all reason of betting a side. I use it more as a reason not to bet a side I'm on.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.