Series Playoff Record 3-1 +19.6 Units Total
Link to previous series price threads below:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101890770
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101871063
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101883905
First off, I just want to thank everybody who has contributed their opinions and discussions to my threads. It's good to discuss NBA with people who all have the same agenda in winning money.
The playoffs have been very good to be this season and I'm looking at this Heat/Spurs series no different. I have been waiting for this Finals matchup and here it is. Was a little surprised the Heat opened up at -110 (Which is now +100). This could be the good old fashioned Vegas "mind games" trick or it could be the fact the Spurs have been waiting for this day a whole year now, that's for us to decide.
The Spurs were 28 seconds away from a title last year folks. I mean Miami employees were wheeling the trophy out before the game was over LOL. Then Ray Allen hit one of the biggest shots in NBA Finals history. If any team can come back from that devastating of a loss a year later it would be your FatherTime Spurs.
There are a few matchups we must look first
1st matchup Lebron vs Leonard
Can you slow down the best player in the World? The answer is no, but you can let him get 30+ while you focus on taking out the role players. Pop will find ways to make other players beat him while letting Lebron get his. The X factor here is Borris Diaw. If you watched any of the Finals last year and the OKC series this year when Diaw plays well the Spurs play. His "fat boy" frame gives him the ability to post up people while his vision on the block allows him to think one step faster than the defense. I can't believe we are actually discussing Diaw but the system he's in makes him a big time threat. He actually plays decent defense on Lebron as well. Pay attention to his play throughout this series.
2nd Matchup Dwayne Wade vs His Knees
This is a tricky matchup to predict. Spo was a genius by resting Wade half a year even when he didn't wanna sit. Wade looked like Flash while shooting a ridiculous % in the ECF vs the Pacers. The Heat basically need 5 good starts out of Wade to win the series. The problem is he hasn't had to test that knee on both sides of the ball in months. Kidd-Gilcrest, Paul Pierce, Thorton never threatened his knees on the defensive end. I will give Stephenson some credit because he did make Wade work. The point is Danny Green will be running Wade all over the court ready to launch 3's. It's not so much about the Spurs running plays for him but rather a decoy to get him a little more tired for the 2nd quarter when it's him and Bosh while Lebron takes his rest in the 8-10 min mark. When Green comes up, the Spurs will run their offense through Manu as well as Belinelli.
3rd Matchup Duncan vs Bosh
Tim Duncan is arguably the best PF in NBA history. The guy isn't flashy when he scores but gets the job done. That chippy layup he missed late in Game 6 was a shot he would make 99 out of 100x. That has to still be in the back of his mind daily. His crafty down low game will get Bosh in some foul trouble. I predict Spo will go with Rashard Lewis on Duncan for a few games and let Bosh guard Splitter. The problem I have with Bosh is he takes to many 3's. Dude is an elite player who can score the basketball but has fell in love with the 3pt shot these playoffs. They need to attack the rim and get out on the fast break to beat this San Antonio squad. We all seen what happened when the Oklahoma City "Jumpshot" Thunder lived and died with that jumper. Any team can get hot for a game or two but you can't win a series if you don't attack the basket.
My one big concern here is Tony Parkers ankle. His ability to get in the lane at will is huge for the Spurs success. With the game 1 line now up to -4 I expect him to be ready. He will need to have a solid serious for this wager to cash. We all know the Spurs role players don't miss at home. On the road is a different story. I won't even address the coaching matchup here because it is so lopsided.