Just wanted to say (type) it a few times. hehe In any case, I noticed a very interesting "ANGLE" that I wanted to try out in this game. I'll discuss this 'angle' later in the write-up but first want to cover a few other very relevant factors that make the Bucks a 'play' in this one:
i) First of all, this is Denver's 3rd and last game of a 3-game 'road-trip'. The team is 0-2 in the first 2 games, losing by 8 @ Memphis and getting blown out by 19 @ Houston. Consequently this team is 1-5 on the road in its last 6 roadies, with the only win coming when facing the pathetic Minnesota team. On the season Denver is 9-17 (34%) on the road, allowing opponents to score 108 ppg (4th highest). The Bucks, on the other hand, are playing their 3rd straight game at home. They are 2-1 at home in the last 3 games, with the one loss coming to a hot Pacers squad. On the season, this team is 13-12 (52%), allowing 89 ppg (2nd lowest in the league). Milwaukee is 3-1 against Denver in the last 4 games and 3-0 in the last 3 on their home court. They are rested, have been at home for 5 days now, and are playing against a team that they've had a lot of 'recent' success. Keep in mind that last year, the Bucks were the ONLY team that had a PERFECT 100% record against the Nuggets.
ii) The 'Melo trade rumors are picking up steam again. This is a major 'distraction' to this squad, especially with the All-Star break looming and the trade-deadline about a week away. This team is only 1-4 in its last 5 games and 3-7 in its last 10. They just aren't playing good basketball right now.
iii) Nuggets are 1-9 SU (3-7 ATS) in their last 10 as road dogs in the 1 to 3 point range, 7-16-2 ATS in the last 25 versus a team that has a winning home record, and 6-14 SU as a listed underdog this season. The Bucks are 9-4 ATS playing on 1 day rest and have beaten the last 2 teams with a winning record. I expect them to make it 3 in a row after tonight.
iv) Revenge scenario here. Earlier this year, Denver beat Milwaukee on their own home-court, 105-94. Neither Delfino nor Bogut played in that game. Bogut's absence was definitely felt as Nene went 8 for 9 from the field for 24 points and 9 rebounds. He won't have as 'easy' of a time tonight. In addition, Delfino blew-up last game for Milwaukee, scoring 26 points with 7 3-pointers. I expect him to stay hot here tonight against a team that plays absolutely NO defense. The Bucks are 14-11 ATS this year revenging a previous loss and I expect them to make it 15-11 ATS after tonight.
v) When looking at current form of each of the teams, one thing stands out: defense. Bucks are giving up 88 ppg on 42% from the field in their last 5 games while Denver is allowing 51% and an incredible 116 ppg to their opponents in the same time-frame. That's just unbelievable. This team truly is playing NO defense right now. Distracted by 'rumors' or not, this just shows me that there's a definite 'lack of effort' from the Nuggets. Milwaukee might not be as skilled as Denver, but 'effort' has never been in question from a Scott Skiles' squad. This team will play D tonight like they do every day, and offense shouldn't be a problem against the Nuggz. Why? Well, for those that pay attention to my write-ups, you might remember that we backed the Bucks a few days ago when they played the Clippers at home. A major reason for making that play was because Clippers haven't been playing any defense, allowing 108 ppg in their last 5. Bucks won that one 102-78 going over 100 points for the first time since January. I expect their offense to be in good shape today as well.
iv) Speaking of Bucks scoring 100 points last game, it brings up an interesting 'ANGLE' that I've looked-up after the Clippers/Bucks game ended. The Bucks are 9-1 in non-Overtime games this season when they score 100+ points in a game. Their only loss in this scenario was to the Lakers back in December. Hmmm.. Well, you might say: "This is all good and dandy, but what makes you so sure that they will go over 100 tonight?". Glad you asked! If the fact that Denver is allowing 116 ppg and 51% from the field in their last 5, 107 ppg in all their road games, or the fact that Bucks shot 52% and scored 102 points in their last game, haven't convinced you that Bucks have a great chance of exceeded 100+ in today's game, maybe this will: Nuggets have allowed teams to score 100+ points in 19 straight ROAD games, which is the LONGEST such streak in the past 10 years. Wow. 19 straight!
Allowing 100+ points in 19 straight road games by the Nuggz and having a 9-1 record when scoring 100+ by the Bucks -- do the other factors that I've listed above even matter in this one??
Just wanted to say (type) it a few times. hehe In any case, I noticed a very interesting "ANGLE" that I wanted to try out in this game. I'll discuss this 'angle' later in the write-up but first want to cover a few other very relevant factors that make the Bucks a 'play' in this one:
i) First of all, this is Denver's 3rd and last game of a 3-game 'road-trip'. The team is 0-2 in the first 2 games, losing by 8 @ Memphis and getting blown out by 19 @ Houston. Consequently this team is 1-5 on the road in its last 6 roadies, with the only win coming when facing the pathetic Minnesota team. On the season Denver is 9-17 (34%) on the road, allowing opponents to score 108 ppg (4th highest). The Bucks, on the other hand, are playing their 3rd straight game at home. They are 2-1 at home in the last 3 games, with the one loss coming to a hot Pacers squad. On the season, this team is 13-12 (52%), allowing 89 ppg (2nd lowest in the league). Milwaukee is 3-1 against Denver in the last 4 games and 3-0 in the last 3 on their home court. They are rested, have been at home for 5 days now, and are playing against a team that they've had a lot of 'recent' success. Keep in mind that last year, the Bucks were the ONLY team that had a PERFECT 100% record against the Nuggets.
ii) The 'Melo trade rumors are picking up steam again. This is a major 'distraction' to this squad, especially with the All-Star break looming and the trade-deadline about a week away. This team is only 1-4 in its last 5 games and 3-7 in its last 10. They just aren't playing good basketball right now.
iii) Nuggets are 1-9 SU (3-7 ATS) in their last 10 as road dogs in the 1 to 3 point range, 7-16-2 ATS in the last 25 versus a team that has a winning home record, and 6-14 SU as a listed underdog this season. The Bucks are 9-4 ATS playing on 1 day rest and have beaten the last 2 teams with a winning record. I expect them to make it 3 in a row after tonight.
iv) Revenge scenario here. Earlier this year, Denver beat Milwaukee on their own home-court, 105-94. Neither Delfino nor Bogut played in that game. Bogut's absence was definitely felt as Nene went 8 for 9 from the field for 24 points and 9 rebounds. He won't have as 'easy' of a time tonight. In addition, Delfino blew-up last game for Milwaukee, scoring 26 points with 7 3-pointers. I expect him to stay hot here tonight against a team that plays absolutely NO defense. The Bucks are 14-11 ATS this year revenging a previous loss and I expect them to make it 15-11 ATS after tonight.
v) When looking at current form of each of the teams, one thing stands out: defense. Bucks are giving up 88 ppg on 42% from the field in their last 5 games while Denver is allowing 51% and an incredible 116 ppg to their opponents in the same time-frame. That's just unbelievable. This team truly is playing NO defense right now. Distracted by 'rumors' or not, this just shows me that there's a definite 'lack of effort' from the Nuggets. Milwaukee might not be as skilled as Denver, but 'effort' has never been in question from a Scott Skiles' squad. This team will play D tonight like they do every day, and offense shouldn't be a problem against the Nuggz. Why? Well, for those that pay attention to my write-ups, you might remember that we backed the Bucks a few days ago when they played the Clippers at home. A major reason for making that play was because Clippers haven't been playing any defense, allowing 108 ppg in their last 5. Bucks won that one 102-78 going over 100 points for the first time since January. I expect their offense to be in good shape today as well.
iv) Speaking of Bucks scoring 100 points last game, it brings up an interesting 'ANGLE' that I've looked-up after the Clippers/Bucks game ended. The Bucks are 9-1 in non-Overtime games this season when they score 100+ points in a game. Their only loss in this scenario was to the Lakers back in December. Hmmm.. Well, you might say: "This is all good and dandy, but what makes you so sure that they will go over 100 tonight?". Glad you asked! If the fact that Denver is allowing 116 ppg and 51% from the field in their last 5, 107 ppg in all their road games, or the fact that Bucks shot 52% and scored 102 points in their last game, haven't convinced you that Bucks have a great chance of exceeded 100+ in today's game, maybe this will: Nuggets have allowed teams to score 100+ points in 19 straight ROAD games, which is the LONGEST such streak in the past 10 years. Wow. 19 straight!
Allowing 100+ points in 19 straight road games by the Nuggz and having a 9-1 record when scoring 100+ by the Bucks -- do the other factors that I've listed above even matter in this one??
Glad I listened to you on that suns game last night ha. Def with you on the bucks but cant decide between taking the celtics tonight or taking portland in a parlay with the bucks. what u think?
Glad I listened to you on that suns game last night ha. Def with you on the bucks but cant decide between taking the celtics tonight or taking portland in a parlay with the bucks. what u think?
YESSSSSSS My first game I try and do a write up and pick and im on the same side as you lets get this money
Nice...just read it.
Good luck!
(be careful with teasers in NBA.. Teasing in NBA is a losing proposition. It's not like the NFL where you're going across critical #'s. If you need to 'tease' in NBA, then it's a sign that you shouldn't play those games!....Also, as a suggestion, if you're going to play parlays, focus on ML's. Find a few teams that have a great chance to win straight up and parlay those to win EVEN $$. Parlays in general are a losing proposition but in NBA, where the lines are pretty accurate every day, it's even more so. Good luck popping your 'NBA cherry' tonight :)
YESSSSSSS My first game I try and do a write up and pick and im on the same side as you lets get this money
Nice...just read it.
Good luck!
(be careful with teasers in NBA.. Teasing in NBA is a losing proposition. It's not like the NFL where you're going across critical #'s. If you need to 'tease' in NBA, then it's a sign that you shouldn't play those games!....Also, as a suggestion, if you're going to play parlays, focus on ML's. Find a few teams that have a great chance to win straight up and parlay those to win EVEN $$. Parlays in general are a losing proposition but in NBA, where the lines are pretty accurate every day, it's even more so. Good luck popping your 'NBA cherry' tonight :)
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